Gale Warning 722, NWS Anchorage, AK

721 
FZAK51 PAFC 140029
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141330-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 mb low 100 nm northeast of Kodiak City will move inland 
tonight. A front will move northwestward across the eastern Gulf 
Tue.

$$

PKZ119-141330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to SW 20 kt after midnight. 
Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141330-
Resurrection Bay-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 
ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141330-
Prince William Sound-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt with gusts to 45 kt through early evening. 
Wind diminishing to S 20 kt by midnight. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft
after midnight.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141330-
Port Valdez-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141330-
Valdez Narrows-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141330-
Valdez Arm-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141330-
Passage Canal-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141330-
Barren Islands East-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141330-
Chiniak Bay-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141330-
Marmot Bay-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141330-
Shelikof Strait-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming SW in the evening. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141330-
Kachemak Bay-
329 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. 
Inner bay, seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Outer bay, 
seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKST Sat Nov 12 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Out west a broad area of low pressure is producing showers across
the Aleutians with winds generally less the 25 knots. A slow
southward moving cold front is draped across the Bering bringing
light snow along the Pribilofs. Across Southwest Alaska and the
AKPen a slow moving low pressure system near Bristol Bay is
producing rain and snow across the area as seen on radar, with
most of the snow in the higher elevations as temperatures near sea
level are in the mid to upper 30s. Across the Kuskokwim Delta
gusty northerly winds and areas of light snow have been observed,
with the strongest winds along the coast with 30 to 45 knots
reported. Across the Kuskokwim valley light snow has been observed
along a front that is pushing north. Across Southcentral a front
is pushing onshore and will usher in the Turnagain winds, Copper
River winds, and possibly the Knik winds. This front is producing
widespread rain along the coast with snow in the higher elevations
with the snow levels at 1500 to 2000 feet. Behind the front is a
shortwave that is producing another swath of precipitation across
the northern Gulf and towards the southern and eastern parts of
the Kenai Peninsula. Radar shows rain and snow from Prince William
Sound towards the eastern Kenai Peninsula. With another band of
light snow along the western Alaska range and southern Susitna
valley. Temperatures across Southcentral are in the 30s across
most inland areas with 40s near the coast. And 20s across the
Kuskokwim Delta and valley area with 30s across Bristol Bay, with
low 40s across the AKPen and Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model are in good agreement with the main synoptic features.
There are still some timing and placement issues with the surface
low tracking northward near the Kenai Peninsula and towards
northern Cook Inlet and the Anchorage area on Sunday. Challenges
for this forecast continue to be precipitation type and
transitioning from one to another, especially for the Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage, and the MATSU Valleys. Sunday will be
particularly challenging as winds turn northerly ahead of the
approaching low pressure system, which could draw down some cold
air and may bring periods of light snow on Sunday before changing
to either rain or a rain/snow mix across the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage and the MATSU Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail. Occasional MVFR ceilings are
possible this evening as a mix of rain and snow develops and again
tomorrow near mid-day through the afternoon. The Turnagain
southeasterly winds will kick in this afternoon and may gusts up
to 25 knots or so. Winds are expected to turn back to the north
tomorrow morning at 10 knots or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
A warm front is slowly lifting northward this evening with
continued widespread rain along the north gulf coasts. Southeast
Turnagain Arm and Knik Arm winds are ramping up in response to a
tightening pressure gradient. As a result, the Anchorage Bowl and
Mat Valley will mostly be dry with the downslope easterly flow,
but some wintry mix precipitation is possible tonight.

By Sunday morning, a North Pacific low moves into Kodiak Island
with another round of precipitation and wind across Southcentral.
Models are coming into a better agreement with this feature as it
will likely move between Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound
around Sunday afternoon and evening. A potent upper level
shortwave trough coupled with warm, moist southerly flow looks
favorable to bring additionally rain for Seward, Cordova, and
Valdez.

As the low moves inland, precipitation increases for the rest of
Southcentral between Sunday and Monday given the sufficient
dynamics in place and the lack of downsloping. The Anchorage Bowl
and Mat Valley may start out with a brief wintry mix in the
morning, but should quickly transition to all rain by early Sunday
afternoon as daytime temperatures are expected to rise in the
40s. The northern Susitna Valley will see less than 3 inches of
snow. Breezy conditions will be limited over the higher
elevations, but the core of strongest winds will be over the
coastal waters, especially along PWS and the Copper River Delta.

Precipitation tapers off by Monday afternoon as dynamics shift
east and drier air filters in. A ridge of high pressure builds
across the mainland state by midweek with quieter weather and
colder temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Unsettled weather will continue through Sunday night. A surface
low located near the Bristol Bay region is responsible for
continuing snow and rain showers across the domain. Areas south
of the Kuskokwim Delta have reported rain this afternoon as the
aforementioned low drives warmer air into the area. An Arctic
trough situated over northern Alaska is influencing far enough
south to encompass the Kuskokwim region and is keeping the
precipitation all snow. Showers will persist over much of the
Southwest through Sunday night before a ridge of high pressure
pushes into the area, resulting in clearer and dryer conditions.
This will last mid-way through the week before more unsettled
weather makes its way back into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday)...

Low pressure stretches from the western to eastern Bering/Aleutians
with high pressure located in the northwestern portion of the
Bering. Showery conditions will persist beneath the low pressure
through Monday before it pushes into interior Bristol Bay and
dissipates. By late Sunday evening, the aforementioned high
pressure will track into the central Bering/Aleutians and will
continue to push eastward through the week. Meanwhile,
northeasterly small craft winds will continue across much of the
Bering through Sunday night, with a pocket of gale force winds
stretching from the Kuskokwim Delta coast to north of the Pribilof
Islands through Sunday evening. A Kamchatka low will track into
the western Bering Monday and will continue unsettled conditions
for the western Aleutians through at least Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Looking ahead at the longterm forecast, a strong ridge builds
over the southern Mainland while a cutoff low lingers south of the
Gulf of Alaska. Benign conditions under the stagnant ridge and
across the southern Mainland are expected to persist into the
weekend though this pattern may lead to widespread fog at lower
elevations. Above average daytime highs and overnight lows are
also anticipated through the long term. There is average
confidence that a front may clip the north Gulf coast on Saturday
morning.

Out west, an upper-level trough and attendant surface low inhabit
the western Bering and Aleutians on Wednesday. However, decent
model spread still exists with the low track and strength which
will affect associated impacts. The GFS and Canadian solutions are
currently the strongest as they advertise winds up to storm force
between Shemya and Adak and over parts of the Bering. The
Canadian low is much quicker in lifting to the north to Russia
already by Wednesday morning, while the GFS low does not reach
Russia until Thursday. The EC is overall the slowest and weakest
solution as it produces only small crafts by the time it tracks
near Adak late Wednesday morning, weakening as it moves into the
Bering thereafter. Fortunately, there is better model agreement on
another low set to reach the western Aleutians for Friday and
Saturday. At this time, there is consensus between the GFS and
Canadian for widespread rain and gale force winds to accompany the
low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 119 120 125 131 179 180 181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
LONG TERM...AF