Gale Warning 710, NWS Anchorage, AK

692 
FZAK51 PAFC 100034
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101315-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 mb low 145 nm East of Sitkinak moves to 90 nm West of Sitka
at 1013 mb for Fri morning, then dissipates Fri afternoon. A new 
front approaches the Western Gulf Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-101315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Near the coast, SE wind 45 kt
diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101315-
Resurrection Bay-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101315-
Prince William Sound-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101315-
Port Valdez-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101315-
Valdez Narrows-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101315-
Valdez Arm-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101315-
Passage Canal-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers with snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101315-
Barren Islands East-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101315-
Chiniak Bay-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt late. Seas 3 
ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101315-
Marmot Bay-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101315-
Shelikof Strait-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101315-
Kachemak Bay-
334 PM AKST Wed Nov 9 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Higher winds and seas in the outer bay. Rain and snow.
.THU...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The overarching feature aloft is a large multi-centered longwave
trough, anchored by a deep 498dm low west of the Kamchatka
Peninsula. The other main center is just north of the Bering
Strait, associated with the last low to move northward from the
Bering Sea in to the Chukchi Sea. The longwave stretches southward
across the Aleutians. The main branch of the jet stream is fairly
zonal across the north Pacific, but amplifies near the Gulf of
Alaska with an upper level ridge in place that extends all the way
in the Arctic/Canadian Archipelago. A potent shortwave trough is
evident on water vapor satellite, moving into the western Gulf of
Alaska with large scale lift ahead and drying behind. The
development of that aforementioned system will be the focus of the
forecast package today.

From a sensible weather perspective, rain and snow are
overspreading the greater Bristol Bay area, extending into the
Kuskokwim Valley and also the southern Cook Inlet region. Out
ahead of the warm front there are some instability showers
impacting the north Gulf coast.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The past couple days model discrepancies have centered around
where this developing surface low moves in the western Gulf. The
general consensus is that the low bottoms out just northeast of
Kodiak Island, and more importantly stops progressing before
weakening and moving east in the Gulf. The most important facet of
that track is it severely limits the chance for warmer air
impacting the precipitation forecast.

Further out in time, there is great agreement with a developing
north Pacific low approaching the central Aleutians on Wednesday
and slowly moving eastward across the Chain through the rest of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance in the 12-15Z timeframe that some moisture will overcome
the downslope and bring snow and lower ceilings, however, at this
time we are not leaning in that direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern continues across Southcentral Alaska
over the next couple of days as low pressure continues
northeastward in the Gulf. The bulk of the precipitation will be
along the windward side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains. The
brunt of the precipitation will be from this afternoon through
Thursday morning. Precipitation will move from southwest to
northeast and taper off in that order on Thursday. Downsloping is
expected to continue across the Anchorage Bowl and significantly
cut down on the precipitation amounts. Only a light coating of
snow is expected at most for Anchorage during the forecast period.
A coating to an inch is expected in Valdez during this event. The
highest snow accumulations will be in the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains due to orographic enhancement and colder temperatures.

The other story is the Turnagain Arm wind will continue to bend
southward (down-inlet) and gradually ease from now through
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

A deep upper-level trough over the eastern Bering Sea will
interact with a developing surface low in the western Gulf of
Alaska as it pushes moisture across Southwest Alaska on southerly
flow. Widespread precipitation as a result of these features will
continue across Bristol Bay, the Alaska Peninsula, and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley overnight and into Wednesday morning. The
Kuskokwim Delta should stay mostly dry from this system, though
the western edge of the precipitation will linger near Bethel
through the overnight hours. With temperatures in the mid to upper
30s across the region, rain is expected to continue this evening
before transitioning to snow from northwest to southeast as
colder air moves in aloft tonight on the back side of the low and
surface temperatures gradually cool. With snow not expected to
begin until tonight, snow totals for this package as a bit lower,
ranging from two to five inches across Bristol Bay from Dillingham
north into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Cold air on the back side
of the low will also make its way across the Alaska Peninsula,
inducing a round of gale force gap winds south of the peninsula
gusting to storm force late tonight into Wednesday.

Snow will end from west to east on Wednesday as the upper-level
trough and surface low track over the central Gulf, though upslope
areas near the Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Mountains may have
lingering precipitation into Thursday morning. Wednesday night,
ridging begins to move in over Southwest Alaska. Continued weak
cold advection on the eastern side of the ridge will allow
temperatures to drop into the 10s for interior locations,
especially with the partial clearing afforded by the approaching
ridge. Limited solar heating on Thursday will keep temperatures
from rising above freezing for most locations north of King
Salmon, aside from locations along the immediate coast. For the
end of the week, a Bering Sea low will push a front to the
Southwest coast. With cooler temperatures in place, precipitation
is most likely to start out as snow except along the coast.
Blowing snow will be a potential point of concern with this system
on Friday for locations that remain cold enough as easterly winds
up to 30 mph may accompany the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

Westerly winds below gale force and brief rain showers will
persist over most of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain through
Wednesday morning with several weak shortwaves propagating
eastward through the flow. However, by Wednesday afternoon a
strong low moving up from the North Pacific will begin to push a
storm force front across the western and central Aleutians. The
low will take a turn toward the east and stay south of the
Aleutian Islands as southerly winds and rain along the front track
eastward into the eastern Aleutians and the southern AKPEN by
Thursday. The front weakens to gale force and pushes north across
the Bering through Friday as its parent low occludes and weakens.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Taking a look into the extended forecast, the pattern on Saturday
begins with an upper level low/trough over the Bering Sea with
shortwaves ejecting and pivoting eastward through Southwestern
Alaska and Southcentral Alaska keeping the domain unsettled for
the most part. For Sunday, a strong North Pacific shortwave
approaches the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN)/Kodiak Island from the
south. There is model disagreement as far as the exact track is
concerned, even amongst the various global ensemble suites.
However, there is above average consensus with the associated
surface low being at least storm force. The jury is still out if
the system progresses further east into the Gulf of Alaska like
the Canadian model depicts, or continues further north into the
AKPEN like the GFS and ECMWF reveal.

Moist southerly flow in the upper levels continues for
Southcentral for Monday and Tuesday as warmer air from the North
Pacific works in towards the end of the long term period while
there is reasonable agreement on ridge building in for the central
Aleutians Monday and drifting eastward while amplifying. Behind
this ridge is an upper level Kamchatka/Northwest Bering low with a
strong upper shortwave near or over Southwest ahead of the ridge
for Tuesday. Overall in the long term, the odds favor warmer than
normal temperatures for the entire domain with above normal
precipitation for Southcentral (most for Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula) and near normal precipitation for
Southwest. The Aleutian Chain, mostly due to the potential ridge
developing, looks to be a little drier with slightly below normal
precipitation.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storms: 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178.
         Gales: 119, 120, 125, 130, 131, 132, 139, 150, 155, 160, 170, 172, 351, 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ED
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
LONG TERM...DAN