Gale Warning 522, NWS Anchorage, AK

958 
FZAK52 PAFC 201204
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210115-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front crosses the western Bering Tuesday morning and reaches the
eastern Bering by Wednesday morning. The front weakens and moves 
inland over western Alaska Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ150-210115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210115-
Bristol Bay-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. From Port
Moller E, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210115-
Unalaska Bay-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210115-
Adak to Kiska-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210115-
Kiska to Attu-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-210115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-210115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
404 AM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt. W of
Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt increasing to
35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 45 kt.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

463 
FZAK52 PAFC 210002
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211330-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 mb North Kamchatka low moves to 80 nm West of Gambell at 
982 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front moves into Western Alaska by 
Thu morning.

$$

PKZ150-211330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211330-
Bristol Bay-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211330-
Unalaska Bay-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 40 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211330-
Adak to Kiska-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211330-
Kiska to Attu-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-211330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ185-211330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 PM AKDT Tue Sep 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 25 kt increasing to
35 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 45 kt.
Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.WED...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in
the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... W 30 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

212 
FZAK52 PAFC 211211
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220045-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front moves from the central Bering into Western Alaska by Thu 
morning. A low moving over Kamchatka moves to 100 nm north of
Saint Matthew Island at 987 mb by Fri morning.


$$

PKZ150-220045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220045-
Bristol Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220045-
Unalaska Bay-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft
building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220045-
Adak to Kiska-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220045-
Kiska to Attu-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-220045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
411 AM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 25 kt. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 212339
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221230-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb Gulf of Anadyr low moves to 165 nm West of Cape Newenham
at 986 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front moves into the Chukchi Sea
through Fri afternoon. A second front extends across the Southern
Bering and moves into the North Pacific by Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221230-
Bristol Bay-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221230-
Unalaska Bay-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221230-
Adak to Kiska-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221230-
Kiska to Attu-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-221230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 PM AKDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 30 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKDT Mon Sep 19 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The longwave pattern is an amplified one that features a ridge
axis over Kamchatka with a deep trough situated over the central
Bering Sea and extending into the North Pacific. Within the
northern portion of this trough, over the southern Chukchi Sea,
reside the remnants of the powerful Bering Sea storm that brought
a wide range of impacts to western Alaska the last few days. This
low continues to fill and weaken as it slowly drifts northward.
Also within this trough, as seen on water vapor imagery, are a few
weak shortwaves tracking across the Aleutian Chain. Further to
the east, a ridge axis extends from the North Pacific to the ALCAN
border. The combination of the Bering trough and ridge to the
east is helping to pull a band of moist Pacific air northward.
CIMSS MIMIC satellite-based Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product
depicts a narrow band of TPW valued at around 1.5" streaming out
of the North Pacific to the southwest Gulf of Alaska.

Looking closer to the surface, current observations reveal low
clouds over Shemya and Dutch Harbor stemming from the series of
weak shortwaves traversing over the Aleutian Chain. Meanwhile,
the Bethel radar shows areas of showers moving over Kuskokwim Bay,
Kuskokwim Delta, as well as around Bethel itself. King Salmon and
Middleton Island radars both show areas of rain moving over the
Alaska Peninsula, Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and up
Cook Inlet in association with moisture from the atmospheric
river. This atmospheric river looks to impact the sensible weather
over the next few days, especially for southcentral Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The primary forecast challenge for the short term period will be
the progression of the atmospheric river, particularly in the
Tuesday/Wednesday window. The 00z NAM continues, to this point,
to be the most progressive of the models with moving a shortwave
eastward quicker with for the Tuesday/Wednesday period. The 00z
Canadian, is not as progressive as the NAM with eastward movement
of the shortwave. The 00z GFS/EURO continue to be consistent with
a slower movement of this feature to the east. These model
differences will have implications on who sees how much rain and
the exact timing of the precipitation. While confidence is
increasing that Prince William Sound communities (Valdez/Cordova
areas) and portions of the Copper River Basin (McCarthy and other
communities along the southern to southwestern facing slopes of
the Wrangell Mountains) will see the most precipitation of the
atmospheric river, details still remain uncertain as to the exact
progression of the system. To that point, a Flood Watch has been
issued for those areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain continues this morning with MVFR ceilings and periods
of MVFR visibilities. Winds should continue to be lightly out of
the north until the surface low over southwest Alaska moves north
of the area this morning. After the low passes to the north, the
pressure gradient will be aligned to allow gusty southeast
Turnagain winds to bend into the terminal from early morning to
the evening. This pressure gradient alignment should also
discontinue the threat for low-level windshear as flow on the
Anchorage Hillside should also be from the southeast. However,
this will be actively monitored. From there, flow looks to shift
to a more south to south-southwest component as the Turnagain jet
relaxes during the evening. As precipitation ends late tonight,
there is uncertainty if ceilings will return to VFR conditions due
to south to southwesterly flow which tends to favor lower
ceilings.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Monday
through Wednesday night)...

A shortwave trough and associated surface low are moving from the
AKPen this morning northeast toward Southcentral. A warm front
attached to the low is lifting to the Southcentral coast with
widespread rainfall. As the front gets closer to the coast this
morning, the gap winds through Turnagain Arm and across the Knik
and Copper River Valleys will increase. Currently, the pressure
gradient is aligned in a manner that is bending the winds around
Anchorage and Palmer down Cook Inlet. However, as the surface low
lifts into interior Alaska later this morning, the winds will
bend back over these locations, with gusts approaching 30 to 40
mph, especially through Turnagain Arm, the Anchorage Hillside, and
along the Copper River. The advancing front will increase the
cross-barrier flow along the Chugach this morning, allowing the
heavier rain dissipate as weak downsloping takes place. The rain
fills back in as the low and upper-level wave lift north and the
resultant flow in the wake of these features turns southwesterly.

As this first wave moves into the Copper River Basin, another
upper-level wave south of the Aleutians and anchoring the longwave
trough will dig south amplifying the longwave pattern and lifting
yet another wave north from the Pacific into the Gulf. This wave
will spin up a surface low along the trailing cold front of the
first system for Tuesday. The cyclonic flow will bring the front
out ahead of the new low back across the Gulf from east to west as
a warm front, with an enhancement of precipitation across the
northern Gulf coast. The resultant decrease in pressure along the
north Gulf will also allow for the development of gusty northerly
winds out of the Valdez Narrows and Resurrection Bay, and westerly
winds out of Passage Canal Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

The low then deepens and tracks to Prince William Sound for
Wednesday as its trailing cold front begins to sweep toward the
Southcentral Coast. The resultant southerly fetch of moisture
from the North Pacific to the Gulf Coast will usher in an
atmospheric river that will prolong bouts of heavy rain from
Valdez and Cordova northward to the Copper River Basin. Flood
Watches remain in place for these locations through Wednesday
afternoon. Valdez could potentially see 3 to 5 inches of rain with
5 to 8 inches of rain for Cordova through the time period.
Additionally, significant rainfall is also possible across the
Wrangell Mountains, with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible from
Chitina to McCarthy. Similar amounts are also possible along
northern portions of the Copper River Basin, especially from
Paxson east along the Denali Highway. For locations east, there is
still some uncertainty as to the exact amount of precipitation
given the uncertainty in the exact track of the low. The GFS
remains the farthest west solution, bringing an area of heavier
rain from Kenai to Palmer for Wednesday. Still, 1 to 2 inches of
rain is possible for the Mat-Su Valleys (and Seward), with the
bulk of the rain falling today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An unsettled but benign pattern is expected to continue over the
next few days. Intermittent showers are expected for Monday and
Tuesday. A front will move through on Wednesday and bring rain to
the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An unsettled pattern continues over the next few days. A front
will move across the Bering/Aleutians Tuesday through Thursday.
This front will bring rain and gale force southerly winds across
the area. Otherwise, no significant weather expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low in the Gulf will have the potential to
drive northwesterly gale-force winds through the Barren Islands on
Wednesday. Confidence in the strength of these winds is moderate,
though they diminish quickly by Wednesday night. Another low
tracking eastward from the Bering is likely to be accompanied by
southerly gale-force winds along its front beginning Thursday
morning. The front sweeps eastward quickly, reaching the eastern
Gulf by Thursday night. Seas remain less than 20 ft.

Bering Sea/Aleutians: South to southwesterly winds reach gale
force along a front across the eastern Bering/Aleutians on
Wednesday. This quickly moves eastward into the Gulf of Alaska by
Thursday morning, with high confidence. Behind the front,
westerly winds develop across much of the Bering for Thursday and
Friday. There will be some potential for localized gale force
winds to develop on the backside of this system. Seas may approach
20 ft in the central Bering Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue for much of
Southern Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands heading into
the weekend. An upper-level longwave trough is expected to remain
in place through the long term period, with its axis situated over
the Bering Sea and Western Alaska. This will lead to a string of
shortwaves tracking through the region on roughly zonal flow
toward the end of the work week before the longwave trough
amplifies for Saturday and Sunday. For Thursday, a front sweeps
eastward across the Gulf, with a triple point low developing
near Kodiak Island and tracking into the northern Gulf. Steady
rainfall can be expected for the north Gulf coast, with more
intermittent rainfall over inland Southcentral. Expect a more
enhanced period of rain Thursday night into Friday as the front
lifts north and east.

A more showery regime present over Southwest Alaska takes over
across the southern mainland on westerly flow behind the front.
These westerly winds will also contribute to gusty gap flow out of
the Aleutian Range across the Alaska Peninsula and into the
western Gulf through Friday night. Embedded shortwave troughs,
whose timing and placement depend on complex interactions that are
difficult to forecast at long lead times, will lead to bouts of
heavier rain through Saturday for the southern mainland.
Meanwhile, onshore flow will continue to support steady upslope
rainfall along the north Gulf coast. As the upper-level trough
begins to amplify, a broad surface low dives south from Bering
Strait into the Gulf by Sunday. This will decrease the onshore
flow component and allow for some drying of inland Southcentral
and Southwest Alaska. On the back side of the low, northwesterly
flow across the Bering Sea leads to further gap winds through the
central and eastern Aleutians Saturday into Sunday. In tandem,
a cooler airmass advected on this flow will allow for temperatures
across the Bering/Aleutians to decrease a bit into the weekend.
Finally, another weak surface low or low complex moves out of the
North Pacific and reaches the western Aleutians, bringing the
heaviest rain that region will see during the period by Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch: 141, 135, 131.

MARINE...Gale Warning: 411, 178.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...CQ