Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2022
Gale Warning 520, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 17, 2022, 3:38 PM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 17, 2022, 3:38 PM AKDT (23:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 18, 2022, 3:49 AM AKDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
058 FZAK52 PAFC 172338 CWFALU Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ199-181245- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 970 mb near the Seward Peninsula continues moving north into the Chukchi Sea through tonight. A 1016 mb low forms 300 nm south of Dutch Harbor Sat night and moves into Bristol Bay at 1008 mb through Mon morning. $$ PKZ150-181245- South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ155-181245- South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ160-181245- Bristol Bay- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 4 ft. Rain. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ165-181245- Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ170-181245- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. $$ PKZ171-181245- Unalaska Bay- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 .TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. $$ PKZ172-181245- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. .SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ173-181245- Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ174-181245- Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ175-181245- Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ176-181245- Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. $$ PKZ177-181245- Adak to Kiska- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Isolated thunderstorms. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ178-181245- Kiska to Attu- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Isolated thunderstorms before midnight. .SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ179-181245- Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. .SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ180-181245- Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. S of Cape Newenham, SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. .SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ181-181245- North and West of Nunivak Island- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. .SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ185-181245- Saint Matthew Island Waters- 338 PM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. .SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$
1 follow-up statement
889 FZAK52 PAFC 181149 CWFALU Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out. Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ199-190045- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 1012 mb low 120 nm SW of Cold Bay moves into Bristol Bay at 1009 mb through Sun afternoon. The low moves inland over southwest Alaska Mon morning. A 1008 mb low forms 45 nm of St. Paul Sun afternoon. This low moves inland over the Kuskokwim Delta Mon afternoon. A front moves from the western Bering to the eastern Bering through Tues morning. $$ PKZ150-190045- South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY... .TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ155-190045- South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E. Seas 9 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. .THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ160-190045- Bristol Bay- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ165-190045- Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. $$ PKZ170-190045- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. $$ PKZ171-190045- Unalaska Bay- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. .TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. .WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ172-190045- Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ173-190045- Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. $$ PKZ174-190045- Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. .WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. $$ PKZ175-190045- Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ176-190045- Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. .THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. $$ PKZ177-190045- Adak to Kiska- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. $$ PKZ178-190045- Kiska to Attu- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. $$ PKZ179-190045- Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. .TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. .THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. $$ PKZ180-190045- Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 .TODAY...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. .TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. .TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. .THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. $$ PKZ181-190045- North and West of Nunivak Island- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. .TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. $$ PKZ185-190045- Saint Matthew Island Waters- 349 AM AKDT Sun Sep 18 2022 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY... .TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. .TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 17, 5:08 AM AKDT, 10 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 5:08 AM AKDT, 10 hours 30 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 AM AKDT Sat Sep 17 2022
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The powerful hurricane force low that has dominated the sensible
weather for the last few days, especially for western and
southwestern Alaska, slowly fills/weakens and transitions to storm
force as it continues to move off to the north towards the Bering
Strait this morning. The satellite presentation is textbook of a
strong system; the Nighttime Micrphpysics Satellite Product as
well as water vapor imagery both show a well defined and "wrapped
up" low pressure system. Its front continues to lash the Norton
Sound area while the southern end continues to impact the
Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim River and the Pribolof Islands regions.
Bethel radar shows areas of rain moving through the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim River Valley areas. The bigger stories with
this system continue to be gusty winds as well as coastal
flooding for Kuskokwim Bay and lower Kuskokwim River. A Coastal
Flood Warning remains in effect until 4PM this afternoon and a
High Wind Warning remains in effect until 10AM this morning.
Current observations reveal Bethel gusting to about 50mph.
Looking at the current configuration of the jet stream, it dives
southeastward out of eastern Russia/Kamchatka to the subtropical
North Pacific. Then it extends northeastward from the subtropical
North Pacific to Southcentral Alaska and curves southeastward
through the eastern Gulf of Alaska to the North Pacific. The deep
moisture fetch is once again noted in the CIMSS NIMIC Total
Precipitable Water Satellite product shows total precipitable
water values of at least 1.5" extending from the subtropical
North Pacific into the western Gulf of Alaska. This moisture is
being pulled northeastward due to the influence from the strong
Bering low.
Meanwhile, conditions across southcentral Alaska remain mostly
quiet. Middleton Island radar is picking up on rain showers
moving up Cook Inlet as well as the Kenai Peninsual, and a few
spotty showers around Prince William Sound. A weak surface low
resides in the eastern Gulf and continues to move southeastward
while a coastal surface ridge exists over the northern Gulf Coast.
The tight pressure graident between this ridge and the strong
Bering low, coupled with up- inlet flow, is helping to produce
gusty Turnagain Arm winds.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to perform well with the major Bering low. All
guidance has the system continuing on its current northward
trajectory through the Bering Strait and into the Southern Chukchi
Sea through tomorrow afternoon. Guidance also is strongly
suggesting the development of an atmospheric river that first
begins to impact the Alaska Peninsula/far eastern Aleutians
Sunday morning before impacting the rest of southern Alaska on
Sunday night. Forecast confidence is becoming higher with the
development of the atmospheric river itself, but details on timing
and exact rainfall amounts still need to be ironed out. Confidence
is also above average on most of Southcentral getting
precipitation from this system too. However, odds are once again
tilting towards the Prince William Sound communities getting heavy
rain from this system Monday through the day Tuesday as it moves
eastward from the Alaska Peninsula.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...A front and associated upper waves of energy will cross
the area early this morning which will bring the chance of
precipitaiton through about 18z mid-morning today. Behind the
front, flow veers from the south to the southwest. This wind
direction change, coupled with up-inlet flow, will be conducive to
MVFR ceilings through the morning hours. Drier air works in
through the end of the morning to afternoon hours and ceilings
should predominantly return to VFR then. Winds look to remain
gusty mostly out of the south and southwest during the TAF period
due to synoptic pressure gradients and up-inlet flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday)...
An occluded front and associated upper-level wave will continue to
move east across Southcentral this morning. A surface low is also
expected to spin up east of Kodiak Island, at the triple point of
the occlusion. As the front and upper-level wave move east, a
lee-side low will develop over the Susitna Valley. The result
will be an increase in the up-inlet flow and a transition from a
Turnagain Arm wind over Anchorage early this morning to a strong
up-inlet flow that will bring gusty southwesterly winds for Kenai
north to Palmer and Talkeetna. Showers developing over the Western
Kenai Peninsula this morning will also move east to Prince William
Sound. Scattered showers are also likely across the Anchorage
Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys this morning, but most of the
precipitation will remain east of these locations, and any showers
that do develop should quickly come to an end as the front moves
east over the Copper River Basin.
As the upper-level trough exits the region, a ridge will begin to
build over the region. Clearer and drier conditions will prevail
Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. Winds will also diminish
by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. With the ridge in
place, low temperatures Sunday morning could drop to around
freezing for many sheltered locations. The challenge will be just
how quickly the winds diminish overnight Saturday. The other
challenge in the short term will be the extent of stratus over the
northern Gulf underneath the ridge and whether the weak southerly
flow due draws any of this marine stratus along the coast and up
Cook Inlet. Hi-res models are indicating a potential for this and
the forecast does reflect that, with clouds back in the forecast
for places like Cordova, Seward, and Kenai by early Sunday
morning.
By late Sunday, the next system moves from the North Pacific
toward the Alaska Peninsula. Light rain looks to overspread the
region from southwest to northeast late Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Gap winds will also increase Monday morning as a
front associated with an area of low pressure over Bristol Bay
moves from the western Gulf to the northern Gulf. This system
looks to be the next widespread rain maker across Southcentral
with steady rainfall likely for the Susitna Valley and a
potential atmospheric river event, with bouts of heavy rain, for
Prince William Sound and points east.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...
The strong low is now well into the occlusion process over the
Bering Strait but remains a very potent system at approximately
950 mb. Strong southwesterly winds and rain continue to sweep
across the Kuskokwim Delta this morning. It won't be until the
overnight hours when gusts start to fall below the 30 mph mark,
but the strong gusts to 60+ mph should move out of the region by
10 am. Storm surge and coastal flooding are expected to reach peak
intensity in the early morning hours and should slowly diminish
through through the morning as the tide goes out and winds
subside. There may be a slower response to flooding along the
Kuskokwim River and as such the Flood Warning for Napakiak and
Flood Advisory within the Delta will remain in effect until 8:30am
Sunday. Gusty winds will be slow to diminish today now that the
progression of the low has slowed down in it's northerly
trajectory. Rain will also slowly subside over the area through
the evening.
On Sunday, much calmer weather will return to the northern areas
of Southwest with some pockets of sunshine emerging throughout the
day. However, the system that impacted the region built a stout
ridge over the north Pacific. This will allow a weak shortwave
currently emerging from Kamchatka to round the southern periphery
of the trough and re-curve north into Southwest Alaska. This will
bring some stout rainfall to Bristol Bay and the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley on Monday until the system moves east into Southcentral on
Tuesday. Behind this system, westerly flow and showers are
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday)...
Elevated winds over the Central Bering today will slowly subside
as the strong low currently in the Bering Strait moves north and
weakens. Calm weather is then expected through the forecast period
with no major features moving through the area. Light westerly
winds and shower activity will persist. On Tuesday, a front
extending east from a Kamchatka low will move through the Western
and Central Bering.
&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...
Aleutians / Bering: An elongated area of low pressure across the
Bering moves into Western Alaska by Wednesday. Forecast confidence
is fair with the timing of movement. A front moves from the
Central Bering into the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday. Generally
light winds over the Bering give way to a new system with gusty
southerly winds increasing to gales over the western Bering
Tuesday, and the Central Bering for Wednesday. Seas building to
20 feet over the Western Bering Wednesday.
Gulf of Alaska: A front enters the Gulf late Monday, and extends
across the Northern Gulf by Wednesday. Gusty Southerly winds ahead
of the front diminish late Monday, then increase as a new North
Pacific low brings widespread gales over the Central Gulf Tuesday.
These gales become a boundary jet along the North Gulf Coast for
Wednesday. Seas to 12 feet over the Northern Gulf and to 16 feet
to the East of Kodiak Island for Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...
Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through the
extended period with two more systems impacting Southern Alaska.
The beginning of the long term period begins with a strong upper
level ridge remaining in place across Western North America while
a deep trough remains entrenched over western Alaska. To the west
of this trough, another upper level ridge is present over the
western Bering/Western Aleutians. In between the upper level ridge
and ahead of the upper level trough will be deep, moist, and
southerly flow (AR- Atmospheric River) aimed right into
Southcentral. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move northward
towards Southcentral ahead of this upper level trough. While the
overall pattern is fairly high confidence, the details remain low
to moderate confidence. The reason being the EC and Canadian-NH
remain more progressive with the upper level pattern for Tuesday
and keep the trough more positively tilted to neutral before going
negatively tilted heading into Wednesday. The GFS on the other
hand, makes the upper trough go more negatively tilted earlier on
Tuesday afternoon as well as bringing up much stronger upper level
energy. Though, at this time, this solution appears to be the
outlier. With that said, either way, expect another prolonged
heavy rainfall event across Southcentral with the details
remaining highly uncertain at this time, especially in regards to
amounts. Recommend checking back for updates over the weekend as
the situation continues to evolve and models converge on the
correct solution.
For the remainder of the period, the upper level ridge over the
western Bering/Western Aleutians is expected to be broken down as
another potent storm system moves into the Bering Sea and Southern
Alaska with details (strength, intensity, and track) uncertain at
this point in time. This is important as it would affect where
the main impacts would be felt. Overall, this system will
basically reinforce the whole longwave trough keeping the region
in this very active and wet pattern through the end of next week.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 155.
Coastal Flood Warning: 155.
Flood Warning: 155.
Flood Advisory: 155.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 181.
Gale Warning: 414, 412, 185, 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MVIn the hours before
Local storm report, Sep 17, 2:38 PM AKDT, 1 hour before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
238 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM FLOOD NAPAKIAK 60.69N 161.98W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED ALL LOW LYING AREAS IN
NAPAKIAK AND OSCARVILLE ARE FLOODED.
&&
MVLocal storm report, Sep 17, 2:41 PM AKDT, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
241 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM FLOOD NAPASKIAK 60.71N 161.76W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK PUBLIC
AIRPORT ROAD STILL HAS WATER OVER IT, AT THE
LOW END. WATER DROPPING SLOWLY. STILL WINDY.
&&
MVLocal storm report, Sep 17, 2:49 PM AKDT, 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
249 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM FLOOD 2 N BETHEL 60.80N 161.76W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK LAW ENFORCEMENT
CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLOOD REPORT FROM 2 N
BETHEL. ALLIGATOR ACRES FLOODED. BETHEL
SEARCH AND RESCUE REPORTED WHILE PATROLLING
ACROSS (BROWN) SLOUGH AND BOAT HARBOR WHERE
WATER IS FLOWING 1 FT DEEP OVERBANK.
ELSEWHERE ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN, THE MAIN
ROAD IS SUBMERGED. RUNWAY WAS STILL DRY, BUT
HOUSE AT THE END OF RUNWAY WAS BECOMING AN
ISLAND. KUSKOKWIM RIVER OVERBANK AT SCHOOL
AND WATER RUNNING BENEATH.
&&
MVLocal storm report, Sep 17, 2:51 PM AKDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
251 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM FLOOD 2 N BETHEL 60.80N 161.76W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK LAW ENFORCEMENT
CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLOOD REPORT FROM BETHEL.
ALLIGATOR ACRES FLOODED. BETHEL SEARCH AND
RESCUE REPORTED WHILE PATROLLING ACROSS
(BROWN) SLOUGH AND BOAT HARBOR WHERE WATER
IS FLOWING 1 FT DEEP OVERBANK. ELSEWHERE ON
THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN, THE MAIN ROAD IS
SUBMERGED. RUNWAY WAS STILL DRY, BUT HOUSE
AT THE END OF RUNWAY WAS BECOMING AN ISLAND.
KUSKOKWIM RIVER OVERBANK AT SCHOOL AND WATER
RUNNING BENEATH.
&&
MVLocal storm report, Sep 17, 2:55 PM AKDT, 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM FLOOD NAPAKIAK 60.70N 161.99W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK PUBLIC
SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED FLOODING IN FRONT OF
THE SCHOOL.
&&
MVLocal storm report, Sep 17, 3:15 PM AKDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0215 PM FLOOD NEWTOK 60.94N 164.63W
09/17/2022 BETHEL AK PUBLIC
REPORT CAME IN OF ENTIRE COMMUNITY IS
INUNDATED WITH WATER. THEY ARE CUT OFF FROM
THE AIRPORT. THEY ESTIMATED 100 FEET OF
SHORELINE WAS LOST. 12 HOMES ARE FLOODED. A
5,000 GALLON FUEL TANK WASHED AWAY. ABOUT 35
PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE A HOME TO GO BACK TO.
&&
MVThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2:30 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Sep 17, 2:40 AM AKDT | Gale Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Sep 17, 2:40 AM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 25 hr | |
| Sep 17, 3:38 PM AKDT | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 23 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.