Gale Warning 508, NWS Anchorage, AK

384 
FZAK52 PAFC 091155
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100045-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 mb low at 270 nm W of St. Matthew Island will dissipate 
through Sat morning. A front extending SE of a low in the Gulf of 
Anadyr will move across the Aleutian Chain and southern Bering 
Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. The low will reach 230 nm
SW of St. Matthew Island at 986 mb Sunday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-100045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100045-
Bristol Bay-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100045-
Unalaska Bay-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100045-
Adak to Kiska-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100045-
Kiska to Attu-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 10 
ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 AM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt...E of St. Matthew Island, NW wind 20 kt. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

512 
FZAK52 PAFC 100005
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101245-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1007 mb low 115 nm southeast of St. Paul Island will dissipate 
Sat morning. A front extending SE of a low in the Gulf of Anadyr 
will move across the Aleutian Chain and Bering through Sun. The low 
will track to 285 nm southwest of St. Matthew Island at 984 mb Sat 
afternoon and then to 100 nm south of St. Matthew Island at 988 mb
Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-101245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101245-
Bristol Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101245-
Unalaska Bay-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101245-
Adak to Kiska-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101245-
Kiska to Attu-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

255 
FZAK52 PAFC 101124
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110030-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front extending from a 987 mb low 260 nm N of Shemya will sweep
east across the Bering through Sun morning. The low will then 
move to 230 nm W of St. Paul at 984 mb Sun morning and 135 nm NE 
of St. Paul at 990 mb Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ150-110030-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110030-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110030-
Bristol Bay-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110030-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110030-
Unalaska Bay-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110030-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110030-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110030-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110030-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110030-
Adak to Kiska-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110030-
Kiska to Attu-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110030-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and areas of fog.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110030-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain areas of fog in the morning.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110030-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110030-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
324 AM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

914 
FZAK52 PAFC 102320
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111230-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 984 mb low 470 nm northwest of Saint Paul this afternoon will move
65 nm northwest of Saint Paul at 987 mb. The low then moves 270 nm 
northeast of Saint Paul at 992 mb Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111230-
Bristol Bay-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111230-
Unalaska Bay-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111230-
Adak to Kiska-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111230-
Kiska to Attu-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sat Sep 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A quasi-stationary, high amplitude trough exists from the central
Bering Sea to Southcentral. Moisture originating from
approximately 35N latitude can be seen on satellite streaming
directly into Southcentral via a 140 kt to 160 kt jet stream. The
surface low associated with this trough is currently over Bristol
Bay. All three operational radars depict widespread light to
moderate rainfall from Bristol Bay east into Southcentral. With
southerly winds aloft and strong dynamic forcing, there is little
in the way of downsloping along the western faces of the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains. The warm front is currently along the Gulf
Coast, with increasing surface winds being observed through
Prince William Sound and into Turnagain Arm. Over the Bering,
fairly quiet conditions exist with broad northerly winds and light
rain showers. Farther west, a front is just grazing Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall models are in good agreement over the next few days. Some
minor differences exist in the evolution of the upper level
features associated with the trough and how progressive the system
is come Friday. Particularly, the NAM is much faster in moving
the current system north and out of the region late Friday, while
the other solutions are slower to do so. However, both solutions
have a minimal impact to the forecast overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light northerly winds early this morning will give way to
Turnagain arm winds around 10am this morning. These will peak
around noon with southeasterly gusts between 25 and 30 kts. A
short period of gusts up to 35 kts is possible. In the afternoon,
up-inlet flow will combine with the Turnagain Arm wind to bring
due southerly winds around 15 kts. Southerly winds are expected to
persist through the night, with the Turnagain arm wind
redeveloping tomorrow morning. Rain is expected to linger through
Friday with MVFR ceilings possibly developing after noon today.
Moderate to heavy rain at times may lower visibility, but it
should be predominately VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

The forecast for the current fall-like storm impacting Southcentral
with widespread rain and wind is largely on track, with just some
minor changes to the forecast. Rainfall totals overnight were
generally on the light side, but rain rates will increase this
morning as a leading warm front pushes onshore. The heaviest rain
will occur this afternoon through Friday morning across eastern
Prince William Sound (Cordova/Valdez areas) as a strong short-wave
trough lifts toward Southcentral, acting on the atmospheric river
aloft. While the short-wave starts out neutrally tilted, it does
look like it will take on a negative tilt as it nears eastern
Prince William Sound and the Copper River Basin. In addition, once
the warm front pushes onshore later this morning, low level flow
will shift to southerly, leading to strong upslope flow along the
south sides of mountain ranges. Flood watches remain out for much
of Southcentral with the likelihood that at least some of these
will be upgraded later today.

The cold front with this system will march slowly eastward across
the western Gulf and Cook Inlet/Kenai Peninsula this afternoon
through tonight. This will bring a break to the steady rain for
these areas, but this will be short-lived as additional short-
waves move in from the west on Friday, bringing another round of
rain. Weaker short-waves will follow through Saturday night. Fast
zonal flow will settle in behind the current high amplitude,
making it a challenge to lock on to timing of specific short-waves
and associated precipitation. Nonetheless, generally expect the
wet weather to continue with only brief breaks of drier conditions.
Persistent strong south to southwest low level flow through
Saturday will also continue to enhance precipitation along south
to west facing mountain slopes.

Meanwhile, gap winds will peak this morning as the warm front
moves onshore. Gusty winds will then spread inland behind the
front. Passage of the cold front tonight through Friday will
further reinforce gusty winds thanks to increased instability and
vertical mixing. As a result, windy conditions will continue for
much of the region through Friday night before finally diminishing
on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Persistent wet weather will continue to dominate the forecast
area today and Friday. The longwave pattern features a tough over
the Bering. There is a 150 knot jet moving into Bristol Bay. On
satellite imagery (CIMSS MIMIC PW) there is a plume of moisture
extending from Pedro Bay to Kodiak and extending into the North
Pacific. There is a second plume of moisture over the western
Aleutians. The models depict the 500 mb low over Southwest Alaska
today and most of Friday with multiple shortwaves rotating
through. The heaviest precipitation will be in the upslope areas
along the Kilbuck Mountains and the Western Alaska/Aleutian
Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Back to back lows will impact the chain. This morning there is an
area of low pressure over Bristol Bay that is expected to lift
northward toward the western Alaska. Rain and gusty winds are
expected for the eastern Aleutians between today and Friday.
Meanwhile, on satellite imagery there is a second feature over the
Western Aleutians that the models track into the Central
Aleutians. Expect another round rain and gusty winds.

&&
.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than
20 feet for the Day 3 through 5 period.

Aleutians/Bering: A low tracks into the western Bering Sea
overnight Friday into Saturday. Forecast confidence is average
with there being a small corridor of low end gale force winds on
the southern periphery of the low Friday night through Saturday
evening as it tracks eastward. Winds diminish to small craft
Saturday night. Expect small craft winds through the rest of the
Bering, gaps and passes along the Aleutian Chain, and on the North
Pacific side of the Chain throughout the rest of the period. Seas
10 to 15 feet are possible closer to the low and subside to 8 to
11 feet Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Models remain in decent agreement, with good consistency between
yesterday's and today's runs. The extended period begins on Sunday
with an occluded low pushing its front into Southern Alaska.
Widespread rain continues to look likely along its front. A ridge
in the North Pacific Ocean will likely keep flow oriented
southwesterly along the front, at least initially. As mentioned in
yesterday's long term discussion, this looks to support good
moisture flow into interior Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. By
Monday, rain looks to transition into more of a showery regime for
Southwest as the upper level low moves overhead. For
Southcentral, flow should become more easterly as the ridge is
displaced. Depending on the strength of the flow, this could favor
heavier rain along Prince William Sound and the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, with precipitation diminishing inland due to
downsloping. With the surface low hovering around the 60N latitude
line, this could also favor enhanced easterly winds through
Turnagain Arm and Knik River Valley. However, details are too
uncertain to say for now.

As we head into Tuesday, models are hinting at the development of
a triple point low in the Gulf of Alaska. This, in conjunction
with a ridge moving east across the Aleutian Chain, could lead to
gusty northwesterly gap winds along the Alaska Peninsula. Still,
much uncertainty remains with regards to this low. While both the
GFS and Euro models suggest it could linger in the Gulf through
late Wednesday, the GFS is suggesting a much more compact low
with stronger winds. The much bigger story will be a strengthening
low pressure system that pushes into the Western Bering Sea and
Aleutians early Wednesday morning. Models have come into better
agreement since the previous runs, but there still remains
considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of this feature.
What models can agree on, however, is that it will be deep.
Deterministic models all agree that pressure could drop to around
970 mb by Wednesday evening, with broad areas of gales and
plentiful moisture. Overall, this low will be one to watch as we
head into next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch 111 131 135 141 145.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 125 128 130-132 138-140 150 160 351
352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...DAN/KC