Gale Warning 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

865 
FZAK52 PAFC 071148
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-080100-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 mb low 140 nm S of Unalaska will move north to 70 nm S of
Togiak Thu morning, absorbing a broad and weak area of low
pressure over the eastern Bering. This low will move inland 
through Fri. A front will move over the western Bering Thu morning
and reach the central Bering Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-080100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-080100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW in the afternoon except SE wind 20
kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon from the Shumagin Islands W. 
Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-080100-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-080100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt early becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-080100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-080100-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-080100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-080100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-080100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-080100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-080100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-080100-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-080100-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-080100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-080100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-080100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-080100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt W of Saint 
Matthew Island. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

322 
FZAK52 PAFC 080004
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081315-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1000 mb low 30 nm south of Sand Point moves to 110 nm south of 
Togiak Wed night, and then inland Thu morning. A 1003 mb low 400 nm 
north of Shemya Thu afternoon moves to 260 nm west of St Matthew 
Island Fri morning. The low dissipates Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except SW 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081315-
Bristol Bay-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-081315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081315-
Unalaska Bay-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.THU...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081315-
Adak to Kiska-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081315-
Kiska to Attu-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-081315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-081315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
404 PM AKDT Wed Sep 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NW 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

245 
FZAK52 PAFC 081154
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-090045-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 mb low over Cape Constantine will move north and inland
through Fri morning. A 1004 mb low will reach 300 nm W of St.
Matthew Island Fri morning before dissipating. A front will move 
over the Aleutian Chain through Sat morning.


$$

PKZ150-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-090045-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-090045-
Bristol Bay-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-090045-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-090045-
Unalaska Bay-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-090045-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-090045-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-090045-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-090045-
Adak to Kiska-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ178-090045-
Kiska to Attu-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-090045-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-090045-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-090045-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-090045-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
354 AM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 15 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE wind 15 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

859 
FZAK52 PAFC 082344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-091245-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front moves across the eastern Bering and Aleutians through Fri
morning. A 1004 mb low will reach 300 nm west of St. Matthew Island 
Fri morning before dissipating. A second front will move east over 
the Bering and Aleutian Chain through Sat morning. A third front will
move east across the Bering and Aleutian Chain from Fri night 
through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-091245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-091245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ160-091245-
Bristol Bay-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-091245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-091245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-091245-
Unalaska Bay-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-091245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-091245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-091245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-091245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-091245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-091245-
Adak to Kiska-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-091245-
Kiska to Attu-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ179-091245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-091245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-091245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-091245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
344 PM AKDT Thu Sep 8 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt except SE 15 kt W of Saint Matthew Island. 
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKDT Tue Sep 6 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad longwave trough with multiple embedded shortwaves exists
from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Southeast Alaska. The primary
upper level features of note are an occluded low moving south into
the Bering Sea from the Gulf of Anadyr, a narrow shortwave ridge
over central and northern Alaska, a shortwave trough and surface
low over the southeastern Gulf, and a developing low south of the
Aleutian Chain. No significant areas of clear skies can be
observed on satellite this morning other than over the northern
Gulf coast, offshore areas of the Gulf of Alaska, and portions of
the Copper River Basin. With ample moisture from recent rains,
most stations are observing humidities above 85 percent, though
high levels of cloud cover have prevented fog from developing in
most areas.

A few light showers can be observed on the Kenai Radar this
morning, primarily over the western faces of the Chugach and Kenai
Mountains, as well as the western and northern Susitna Valley. A
very weak, and nearly stationary shortwave over the Kenai
Peninsula is capitalizing on some weak instability to produce
these showers. Steering flow is generally out of the south between
5 and 10 kts, resulting in slow moving showers from Anchorage
north to the Mat-Su Valleys.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall model consensus over the next two days is good. Minor
differences in timing and placement of shower activity over
Southcentral remains a challenge. More significant and impactful
model differences arise late Wednesday into Thursday as a
currently developing low south of the Aleutian Chain merges with
the existing trough over the Bering and amplifies the overall
synoptic pattern. The low track and its deviations within the
models will impact the core of heaviest precipitation with the
upcoming atmospheric river event on Thursday. East-west
deviations and overall placement of the shortwave will impact the
wind field in the mid-levels, which could enhance or diminish
rainfall totals in the Seward area. A farther east solution would
allow for a shorter period of heavy rain for the Kenai Peninsula,
whereas a western solution may prolong the event. The surface low
track will also dictate the potential for strong winds through the
Turnagain Arm, and the timing of the low passage north of ~60N
will dictate the timing and strength for potentially elevated
winds over the Anchorage Hillside. Currently the track would keep
winds over the arm when the core of the strongest winds are
expected, but this may change depending on the low track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light southerly winds will persist through most of the day
with a light Turnagain Arm wind developing later in the afternoon.
Showers are expected before noon, which may temporarily lower
ceilings to MVFR conditions, but overall VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings will likely become
dominant Wednesday morning as stratus moves up the inlet.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

A couple of short-waves sitting over Southcentral will exit this
morning, with a short-wave ridge moving in behind. However, this
ridge will largely be a non-player, as a long-wave trough over the
Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska arrives this afternoon. Broad
cyclonic flow with weak embedded short-waves will combine with
existing atmospheric instability to cause an overall uptick in
shower activity, especially from the western Kenai Peninsula to
Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Showers will largely diminish tonight,
but linger in the Susitna Valley in upslope flow.

The precipitation forecast for Wednesday is a bit more challenging.
The Bering trough will amplify, with a steady supply of weak
short-waves and abundant cloud cover headed for Southcentral.
The unorganized/unfocused nature of the vertical motion combined
with a marginally more stable airmass makes it hard to identify
the best location for showers. Generally expect increasing showers
later in the day as stronger forcing arrives, especially along
the Gulf coast.

More significantly, the digging trough will lead to strengthening
of a surface low crossing the North Pacific, with a deep low
headed northward across the Alaska Peninsula and into Bristol Bay
Wednesday night/Thursday. A strong meridional jet streak and
atmospheric river will form on the leading edge of the trough and
become pointed directly toward Southcentral by Thursday. While
there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track and depth of the
surface low out west, there is high confidence that this storm
system will produce heavy precipitation across much of the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night. The Gulf coast/Prince
William Sound region will see the heaviest rain, with multiple
inches of rain likely. This could exacerbate flooding being
observed along portions of Kenai Lake/Kenai River from the Snow
Glacier-Dammed Lake release and introduce the risk of minor
flooding to other areas bordering Prince William Sound. Will
continue to evaluate this threat as details of the storm evolution
become clearer.

In addition to the heavy rain, also expect fairly strong winds
across the Gulf waters and through mountain gaps in Southcentral.
The low track and depth will determine whether some of the
stronger gap winds move into the population centers. This pattern
is particularly favorable for strong winds along Turnagain Arm,
so there is potential for "fall-like" winds along the Anchorage
Hillside. The stronger the low, the slower the northward
progression into Southwest Alaska would be. In this scenario, the
strongest winds would remain in Turnagain Arm. If the lower is a
bit weaker and takes a faster northward track, winds would be more
likely to impact Anchorage. At this point in time, the timing of
strongest winds looks to be late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave pattern features a trough over the Bering along with
ridging over the Central Pacific. On satellite imagery (CIMSS
MIMIC PW) there is a deep fetch of moisture from Adak to the
Mariana Islands. In this plume of moisture, satellite imagery
detected relative humidity values nearly 300 percent of normal
just south of the chain. The models show the upper level trough
deepening with a 140 knot jet core moving over the eastern
Aleutians Wednesday morning and a round of cyclogenesis. By
Thursday morning there will be a 995mb low over Bristol Bay. This
low will be coincident with a widespread swath of rain. Locations
such as Dillingham and Levelock will get over 1 inch of rain with
this system while portions of the Alaska Peninsula may get upwards
of two inches of new rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The longwave pattern features a trough over the Bering along with
ridging over the Central Pacific. On satellite imagery (CIMSS
MIMIC PW) there is a deep fetch of moisture from Adak to the
Mariana Islands. In this plume of moisture, satellite imagery
detected relative humidity values nearly 300 percent of normal
just southwest of Adak. The models show the upper level trough
deepening with a 140 knot jet core moving over the eastern
Aleutians Wednesday morning and a round of cyclogenesis. By
Thursday morning there will be a 995mb low over Bristol Bay. This
low will be coincident with a widespread swath of rain. Also of
interest there is a second distinct plume of moisture associated
with Typhoon Hinnamnor which is west of Japan this morning. This
system will move inland and then the remnants of Hinnamnor will
move into the Western Bering on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A low tracking into the southeastern Bering will
move southwesterly flow along a front into the Gulf Thursday. Gale
force winds are expected through the western Gulf, across the
Barren Islands, and into Kamishak Gap. Southerly gales could point
towards Prince William Sound and the Gulf coast by Thursday
afternoon. The southeasterly flow through this area could spill
into Turnagain Arm. Winds may diminish some, but overall forecast
confidence is moderately low through this time frame. Seas in the
Gulf build Thursday through Friday up to 15 feet, then gradually
subside to around 10 feet or less Saturday.

Aleutians/Bering: A low will track into the southeast Bering
Thursday. While a widespread area of small craft winds is expected
around the low, there is a possibly for gale force winds. By
Friday afternoon, the low is expecting to track inland and the
potential for gales moves towards the Southwest Alaska coast.
Winds could also approach gales along the Aleutians Thursday
afternoon with another trough moving into the western Bering. Seas
build Thursday night over the western Aleutians and southwestern
Bering from 10 to 13 feet and spread east along the entire
Aleutian chain by Friday night. Forecast confidence decreases
during this time frame, but as a low develops in the western
Bering by Saturday morning, it could prolong the potential for
gales. Seas with this late week low would continue to build from
10 to 15 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Model agreement is fair at the synoptic scale on Friday, though
it deteriorates rapidly as we head through the weekend and into
Monday. Several systems are expected to impact our forecast area
through the extended period. The first low system will be over the
Y-K Delta by early Friday. Given the large fetch of tropical
moisture along its front, the primary threat with this low will be
long duration heavy rain along Prince William Sound. For now,
there is consensus among the deterministic models and model
ensembles that the heaviest rain will fall late Thursday night
into early Friday morning, with rain tapering off around Friday
afternoon. Otherwise, rain is expected to be widespread over much
of the Southern Mainland through Friday as several upper level
shortwaves move across the region. Winds will also be elevated
with this system; colder air wrapping around the backside of the
low will lead to gusty westerly to southwesterly winds along the
Southwest Alaska coast and Western Gulf. The southwesterly
orientation of winds also favors breezier conditions up Cook Inlet
and over Anchorage.

The next surface low will be a weaker one. The center itself will
linger near Russia, though a surface trough looks to extend over
the Pribilof Islands. Lower pressure over the Bering Sea, in
conjunction with higher pressure in the North Pacific Ocean,
should keep westerly winds elevated around the Aleutian Chain
through Saturday morning.

The final system, and one that could be rather impactful,
approaches the Western Aleutians and Western Bering Friday night
before tracking eastward through Monday. Confidence is low at this
time due to model disagreement regarding the strength and track
of this low. However, models generally agree that the low will
reach Southwest Alaska by Sunday, that wind speeds will be small
crafts or greater, and that there will be widespread rain across
the Southern Mainland on Sunday and Monday. The GFS is a bit of an
outlier among the global models as it hints at a deeper low, with
winds at gale force and greater rainfall intensity as the front
tracks along the Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KC