Gale Warning 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

137 
FZAK52 PAFC 072347 AAA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-081245-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 972 mb low 335 nm South of Dutch Harbor loops to 340 nm South 
of Nikolski at 961 mb for Sun afternoon. Its front extends to a 
981 mb low 115 nm West of Attu that moves to 345 nm West of Attu 
at 1005 mb by Sun afternoon. High pressure remains over the 
Chukchi Sea through Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-081245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt except E 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-081245-
Bristol Bay-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ165-081245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-081245-
Unalaska Bay-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-081245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-081245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ175-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-081245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-081245-
Adak to Kiska-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-081245-
Kiska to Attu-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-081245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray developing in
the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-081245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt.

$$

PKZ181-081245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt.
.WED...N wind 35 kt.

$$

PKZ185-081245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
247 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt S and W of Saint Matthew Island...NE wind 30 kt
N and E of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the upper levels, strong high pressure continues to stretch
from Siberia into central and southwest Alaska. Several low
pressure areas rotate around the western Aleutian island area.
That high will influence the track of the lows coming out of the
north Pacific. Strong northerly flow is occurring over eastern
Alaska. At the surface, the high pressure basically stretches
across the state.

On a broad scale, the high pressure over central and southwest
Alaska is keeping skies clear with winds on the light side,
currently. The north flow aloft over the east is working to help
keep temperatures quite cold with bitter wind chills.

Satellite imagery and webcams in the Anchorage area shows somewhat
patchy fog over the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Saturday, when they start to diverge on how to handle the low
pressure areas over the north Pacific, as well as the low
pressure developing and moving south through the northerly flow. For
tomorrow and Saturday, a fetch of warmer and moister air aloft is
still forecast into Southcentral this weekend. The primary
forecast challenges will be pin pointing the precipitation type
over the Kenai, and the chance of higher winds into the Mat
Valley this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...An area of fog developed over the Anchorage area today and
has been fairly stubborn. While conditions for the TAF at ANC have
generally been VFR, there have been periods of time with reduced
vsby. Do not see conditions which will scour out the fog
overnight, so the threat of periodic reduced vsby/cigs will be
there through possibly mid morning tomorrow. Next chance for
precipitation at PANC will be Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3)...

Cold temperatures have stuck around today with windchills through
Thompson Pass still reporting 55 to 60 below zero and 30 to 40
mph winds. Given the continued cold and windiness, the Wind Chill
Advisory will continue into Saturday. Fog appeared throughout the
Anchorage bowl this afternoon and given the low sun angle and some
of the HiRes guidance and GFS Lamp, patchy fog could continue
through tomorrow morning.

The upper ridge continues to bring clear and dry weather across
interior Southcentral. Surface high pressure over the Copper River
Basin and a tight pressure gradient towards the north Gulf Coast
prompted gusty winds through the gaps.

This pressure gradient will be further exacerbated as an Arctic
low over interior Canada drops a front, carving into the upper
ridge and directing an upper jet more northerly over Southcentral
for by Friday morning. This wave of energy will tighten a pressure
gradient over across the Mat Valley area, not only aloft, but at
the surface. Upper vorticity and 850 temperature gradient in the
latest run places the threat more in line with the Mat Valley
Friday through Saturday for strong winds gusting to 60 mph, but
still not expecting the magnitude experienced last week.

Through the weekend, the trough will elongate and interact with a
low south of the AKPen and will ultimately lift into the Gulf.
Snow is expected to move across Kodiak Island, changing to rain
along the eastern coast as easterly flow, and a barrier jet,
advects warmer air in from the Gulf. Precipitation types will need
to be further assessed as the low develops, but the onset has
been delayed slightly compared to previous runs. None the less, it
appears to have plenty moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Day 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

Dry, clear, and cool conditions will continue through the end of
the week. However, by Friday, the weak zonal flow aloft, will
give way to a weak upper-level high pressure system. Pressure
gradients will tighten Friday evening due to a North Pacific low
tracking farther north. This will result in increasing
northeasterly winds over the Kuskokwim Delta and central Bristol
Bay areas. As the low continues northward and elongates,
scattered precipitation is possible over Bristol Bay Sunday. The
aforementioned lows exact position and any resultant downsloping
near the Alaska Range, remains uncertain at this time. However,
any rain/snow would be of little to no major impact until possibly
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Day 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

A low tracking northward near the western Aleutians will continue
to bring rain and gusty southerly winds before tapering off by
midnight. Southeasterly flow to its east will allow for highs to
reach the 40s over the central Aleutians as warm air is being
pulled from the south. Two lows will merge over the North Pacific
Friday into Saturday. Much of the precipitation looks to remain
south of the Chain until later in the weekend/early next week.
However, gusty northeasterly winds are possible near the Alaska
Peninsula through this weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: North pacific low moves just south of the AKPen
on Sunday, bringing waves above 20ft and winds greater than 35kts
to much of the Gulf. Winds and waves begin to subside by Monday.

Bering Sea: Northerly flow on the backside of a low near the AKPen
will produce gale force winds across the Bering and Aleutian
Coasts on Sunday before subsiding on Monday. Seas are expected to
remain below 20 ft Sunday through Tuesday, but may approach 20ft
in ares with highest winds on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Monday through Thursday)...

As we begin the long term the region will be in the midst of a pattern
change. The blocking high that has been over Alaska this week will
shift towards eastern Russia while a broad trough will develop over
the Bering and Aleutians and extend towards southcentral Alaska.
Additionally, a strong ridge will develop over western Canada and
extend into the interior of Alaska. The western Canadian ridge
will direct lows and fronts northward into southcentral with
milder temperatures and moist southerly flow bringing rain and
snow for parts of southcentral. This pattern will also allow a
couple of lows to cross into the Aleutians and Bering from the
North Pacific which could bring periods of strong winds to parts
of the Aleutians and Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120, 121, 127, 128, 130, 131, 138, 139,
                      155, 170, 172-176, 179, 185, 411-414.
         Heavy Freezing Spray 119, 121, 126-129, 139, 141,
                      165, 185, 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...RC/KM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
127 AM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

AKZ111-071500-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
127 AM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...

Strong northeast winds sustained 25 to 40 mph, with gusts of 45
to 60 mph will return Friday afternoon and continue through the
overnight hours before slowly diminishing Saturday morning. There
is also the potential that winds will increase again late Saturday
afternoon before diminishing Sunday morning. Loose debris may
still be affected by these winds and should be secured where
possible.

Wind chills from 15 to 30 below zero are expected with higher
winds. This could cause dangerous life-threatening conditions for
those without power, as frostbite can develop in as little as as
15 minutes in these conditions.

For the latest information, visit us at: weather.gov/anchorage.