Gale Warning 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 24, 2022, 2:56 PM AKDT (22:56 UTC)

Expired

Aug 25, 2022, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

279 
FZAK52 PAFC 242256
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-251200-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 North Kamchatka low moves over Gambell at 993 mb for Fri 
afternoon. Its front moves across the Bering into Western Alaska, 
and trails over the Aleutians through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-251200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-251200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-251200-
Bristol Bay-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt W of Cape Constantine. Seas 
5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-251200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. From 
Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-251200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-251200-
Unalaska Bay-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-251200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-251200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-251200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-251200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-251200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 
ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-251200-
Adak to Kiska-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-251200-
Kiska to Attu-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-251200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-251200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-251200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-251200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
256 PM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 24, 5:15 AM AKDT, 9 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT Wed Aug 24 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Longwave trough exists across Southern Alaska, extending in the
Gulf of Alaska. A low pressure system sits just south of Kodiak
Island and rotate in the general area into tomorrow, fizzling out
by Thursday afternoon. A shortwave protrudes westward from the
trough and extends out over the Central Aleutians, with a surface
low embedded within it, and will spend the rest of the day pushing
into the North Pacific. A series of other, weaker, shortwaves
pass over Southcentral Alaska are resulting in periodic rain
showers this morning. High pressure ridging will continue over
the Bering through the morning hours today before being flattened
out by an approaching front. Areas of low hanging clouds and some
patchy fog are notable under the ridge as well. The front entering
the western Bering this morning hangs off a low over eastern
Russia. The front will track across the Bering towards the
Southwest coast through Thursday evening, pushing onshore Thursday
night, but the low itself will remain mostly over Russia before
moving into the Gulf of Anadyr and over Saint Lawrence Island
Friday morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

There are a few embedded surface lows within the trough pattern
that the models are still struggling with, but overall, models
remain in relatively good agreement through the short term. There
is a good handle on the large low over eastern Russia, as well as
with its associated front as it moves across the Bering over the
next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A couple of shortwaves passing over will result in periods
of light rain showers and ceilings dropping below 5000 feet
Thursday morning. Conditions should, however, stay mostly VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Friday)...

The satellite imagery does not look all that different from last
night over Southcentral with the upper level low spinning near
Kodiak and the front running due northward into the Prince
William Sound area from well south of 40N. However, there are some
important differences with the location of the upper level low
and that low is taking the more westerly track as discussed
yesterday. That has brought rain over Anchorage and the Matanuska
Valley overnight, but to the west side of Cook Inlet as well.
This will translate to a wetter day for these areas as that pesky
low just takes it time heading northeastward. It should make the
AlCan border Thursday afternoon which will allow weak ridging
over Southcentral behind it. As has been the case this month, the
break will be short-lived as the next soggy system moves into
Southcentral from the west on Thursday night and lingers through
Friday.

Expected rainfall amounts with this next system look to
be around .5 (half-inch) for the western Kenai Peninsula through
Anchorage. The Matanuska valley should be closer to .75 inch with
increasing rainfall amounts northward with up to 1.5 inches in
the central to northern Susitna valley. The overall wettest area
will again be around Prince William Sound where there should be
another 1.5 inches to go on top on the 1 inch expected today.

As to the question as to whether there will be a nice clearing
trend this weekend behind this next system: (Spoiler Alert) the
answer is no. The upper level trough will remain over the region
making it a rinse and repeat situation with the emphasis on the
'rinse' part.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Relatively quiet weather across Southwest Alaska this morning.
With enough clearing overhead, a few locations have gotten some
fog and may potentially last through a good portion of the
morning. The large low south of the Alaska Peninsula is beginning
to shift towards Kodiak Island. Showers are spilling over the
Alaska and Aleutian mountain range but drying up before reaching
Iliamna, King Salmon, or Pilot Point. Quieter weather will come to
end tonight though.

A front is expected to move across the Bering Sea during the day
today. A large upper level jet will help to press plenty of
precipitation and strong winds to the Kuskokwim Bay and coastline.
Winds will increase to gale force near the coastline early
Thursday, impacting coastal communities from Kipnuk to Quinhagak.
High surf also expected for this area. Strong southerly winds
could funnel through the Kuskokwim River to Bethel. Areas south of
the Kuskokwim, such as Cape Newenham and Togiak, can also expect
strong winds through Thursday afternoon, though impacts should be
less. Winds will gradually decrease Thursday night, but breezy,
onshore flow and rainy weather is expected to continue through
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

The high pressure ridge over the western Bering this morning will
move along the Aleutians today and be replaced with the next
trough. A large upper level jet will stretch across the Bering Sea
today, helping to increase winds from west to east throughout the
day. Winds will noticeably increase for the Pribilofs and St
Matthew Island this evening and peak tonight. Precipitation is
expected with this north-south frontal passage and should span the
entire Bering to the Aleutians. By Thursday morning, the swath of
precipitation and winds will be over the eastern Bering and
Central to Eastern Aleutians. It will not be until late Thursday
morning, that winds peak and span the entire eastern Bering from
the Eastern Aleutians to the Southwest coast. Winds could become
gale force from Cape Newenham northward to Nunivak Island with
higher gusts. Windy and rainy conditions may linger behind the
frontal passage through Friday afternoon with the higher chances
for precipitation across the Aleutians and the higher winds
towards the western Bering on Friday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Forecast confidence remains moderate due to
model differences between the placement and intensity of synoptic
scale features. However, confidence is high winds are expected to
remain below gale force with no high seas expected.

Aleutians/Bering: Forecast confidence is low due to significant
model differences in the pressure fields across the eastern
Bering/Aleutians. Confidence is high that winds will remain below
gale force across the central and western Bering. However, there
is a chance for gale force northwesterly gap winds along the
eastern Aleutians and western Alaska Peninsula on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Forecast confidence is above average with respect to the overall
synoptic pattern during the extended period. Low pressure is
expected to move southeastward from the Bering Strait into the
Gulf of Alaska and will result in more clouds than sun as well as
a higher probability of precipitation across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska. Confidence remains low with respect to precipitation
amounts due to significant model differences in the precipitation
field as well as uncertainty to how strong the downsloping force
will be on the leeward side of the Chugach Mountains.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 121
MARINE...Gale 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VR
MARINE/LONG TERM...ED

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2022Every gale warning in 2022

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.