Gale Warning 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

578 
FZAK51 PAFC 051153
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-060045-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 mb low 85 nm west of Middleton Island moves to near
Montague Island Fri afternoon and remains nearly stationary 
through Sun morning. Its front extends along the north Gulf coast 
through Sat afternoon. A second front sweeps from the western Gulf
to the eastern Gulf by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-060045-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Along
the coast, SE wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-060045-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-060045-
Resurrection Bay-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-060045-
Prince William Sound-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-060045-
Port Valdez-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain 
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-060045-
Valdez Narrows-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 15 kt in the morning...then becoming 
SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain
showers.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-060045-
Valdez Arm-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 20 kt in the morning...then becoming 
SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-060045-
Passage Canal-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
30 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-060045-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-060045-
Barren Islands East-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-060045-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-060045-
Chiniak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt in the morning increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 35
kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-060045-
Marmot Bay-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-060045-
Shelikof Strait-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-060045-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-060045-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-060045-
Kachemak Bay-
353 AM AKDT Fri Aug 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Inner bay,
seas 4 ft. Outer bay, seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Inner bay, seas 4 ft. Outer bay, Seas 7 
ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Inner bay, season 4 ft. Outer bay, seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKDT Thu Aug 4 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large surface low is centered near Saint Matthew Island this
morning, contributing to widespread cloud cover across the Bering
Sea. Its occluded front wraps across the northwest Bering Sea to
the Bering Strait and into Southwest Alaska, where a band of
showers is tracking east across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
into Southcentral Alaska. Light stratiform rain and low stratus
are streaming in behind the front over Southwest Alaska. A quasi-
stationary front associated with a large plume of moisture drawn
up from the North Pacific stretches along the eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula up to the triple point in the vicinity of
Katmai National Park.

Further east, an upstream ridge is located over the Gulf of Alaska
and stretches up into Southcentral. The subsident environment has
allowed low stratus and fog to flourish in the eastern Gulf and
spread westward overnight along the north Gulf coast to the
entrance of Prince William Sound. The northwestern Gulf, however,
remains stratus-free as thick cirrus moves in ahead of an
approaching warm front. Inland over Southcentral, a weak shortwave
trough riding over the ridge helped support nocturnal
thunderstorm activity over the Talkeetna Mountains last night and
continues to assist the development of showers across the Copper
River Basin this morning. Lastly, the warm front tracking into the
western Gulf is bringing abundant moisture and widespread stratus
as far north as Kodiak Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance is in good agreement regarding a progressive
longwave pattern through the short term. However, it quickly
diverges into two camps in regard to embedded shortwaves tracking
through the flow. In particular, GFS and NAM drive a shortwave
near the western Aleutians quickly toward the Gulf and
Southcentral Alaska for Friday as a large upper-level low over
the northern Bering elongates and draws it into strong
southwesterly flow. GEM and EC alternatively suggest that the
large upper-low remains more concentric, leaving the western
Aleutian shortwave detached from the flow for longer, as it
reaches the Gulf on Saturday instead. How this and various other
shortwaves tracking through the longwave trough evolve will impact
the timing of rain and QPF amounts for Southcentral through
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will continue this morning.
With a weak coastal ridge developing and pressure falling in the
Interior, southeasterly winds are anticipated to move into the
terminal this afternoon as ceilings gradually lower. There will be
potential for light rain showers this afternoon as well with the
frontal passage, which could briefly lower cigs/vis to MVFR.
Conditions deteriorate to MVFR cigs/vis prevailing as more
widespread rain develops early Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3;
Thursday through Saturday night)...

A transient upper-level ridge will quickly slide east across the
Gulf of Alaska this morning as a deep upper-level trough digs in
over the Bering Sea. The ridge will help keep conditions generally
clear and dry through late morning or early afternoon before the
first of a series of shortwave troughs advances toward the region.
Exceptions to this are areas of fog across the northern Gulf, as
well as persistent shower activity over the Talkeetnas and
Wrangells this morning, aided by mid-level instability due to a
mid-level trough and vorticity advection over the Copper River
Basin.

This first trough will move in by Thursday afternoon, embedded in
a deep southwesterly flow between the exiting ridge and upper-
level low situated over the Bering. This trough is associated with
a weakening front lifting northeast across Southcentral. As both
features advance, shower activity is expected to once again
develop over the mountains. Given the mid-level instability
already in place, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
across the higher elevations surrounding the Copper River Basin.
Passage of the surface front and upper-level wave will also induce
lower surface pressures across the interior, which will allow for
the development of southerly gap winds this afternoon.

A stronger wave, tapping into an abundant moisture source over
the western Pacific, will move from the eastern Aleutians to the
northern Gulf for Friday. This system will push a warm front up
along the Southcentral coast with a trailing cold front moving
across the Gulf through late Friday night. Southwesterly flow
ahead of these features will push moisture across Southcentral,
bringing copious amounts of rain to the coast and across area
mountains. The axis of this first upper-level trough moves to the
eastern half of the region by late Friday, allowing widespread
rain to diminish and become more showery in nature from Cook Inlet
north to the Susitna Valley. Rain, heavy at times, is still
likely from Prince William Sound east into Friday night. Another
round of showers across interior sections and rain along the
coast is likely for Saturday as the entire upper-level trough
slides across the state.

The gap winds that will develop by early afternoon (Turnagain Arm,
Knik River Valley, and Copper River Basin) are expected to
persist through Saturday morning before diminishing as the trough
moves east and a westerly flow aloft develops. This shift in the
winds, however, will result in the development of gusty winds and
higher seas across southern Cook Inlet to Kachemak Bay and into
the northern Gulf from late Friday through early Sunday. Gusty
westerly winds are also likely for Kodiak City and out of bays and
passes along the western shores of Shelikof Strait and the
eastern shores of Kodiak Island.

Rainfall amounts will vary across Southcentral. The highest
amounts are expected from Valdez to Cordova, where 2 to 4 inches
of rain could fall through Saturday. Around one half to two
thirds of an inch of rain is possible across Cook Inlet to the
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley. One inch of rain possible
across the Susitna Valley with a quarter to half an inch possible
for the Copper River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Cloudy and rainy conditions continue for Southwest Alaska through
Saturday. A weakening front will quickly sweep through the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley and eastern Bristol Bay this morning. Behind it,
an occluding low moving onshore will spread rain showers across
Southwest Alaska through Friday afternoon. Further south, the
Alaska Peninsula can expect to see steady rain through this
afternoon and evening as a band of rain sets up along a stationary
boundary. Aside from rain, expect increasingly southerly winds
today with a chance for fog tonight.

Rain showers will begin tapering off from west to east tomorrow morning.
However, a shortwave and its associated surface low will move in
from the northern Bering Sea by Friday afternoon, bringing another
shot of rain. Rain will finally taper off through Saturday,
though another quick-moving surface low is poised to bring
additional rainfall late Saturday evening through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Unsettled weather today will give way to calmer conditions for
tomorrow and Saturday. Today, an occluded low currently near St.
Matthew Island moves into the Y-K Delta. Rain showers will
accompany the low center, while small craft winds are expected
near the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Bering Sea. Further south,
the Eastern Aleutians will likely see steady rain through the day
as a band of rain sets up along a stationary front. Confidence in
rain amounts remains lower for this feature; the forecast provides
a middle-of-the-road scenario. Winds along this front are expected
to reach gale force south of the Alaska Peninsula.

As these features exit the region early Friday, higher pressure
will build in from a ridge near the Western Aleutians. Westerly
flow will prevail over the Bering Sea, while winds will remain
light in the Aleutian Islands. The Eastern Bering will see
increases in wind the latter halves of Friday and Saturday as
several disturbances move through. Otherwise, low stratus and fog
will likely take hold through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: An elongated area of low pressure with its front
has weakening upper level support over the Northern Gulf through
Monday. Forecast confidence is fair due to the timing of changes.
Widespread rain, briefly heavy rain locally spreads across the
region. Gusty West winds increase to gales for late Saturday from
Kamishak Bay and the Barren Islands and near Sitkinak into the
Gulf, diminishing Sunday. Areas of gusty Southwest winds linger
through Monday. Seas to 10 feet, subsiding.

Bering: High pressure over the Southern Bering and Aleutians
weakens by Monday. A series of weak lows move over the Northern
Bering through Monday. A moderately strong low approaches the
Western Aleutians for Monday. Forecast confidence is fair with the
movement of the lows. Gusty Westerly winds move across the Bering
diminishing Monday. Gusty Southeast winds ahead of the Aleutian
low increase to areas of gales late Sunday, diminishing. Seas to
10 feet over the Bering, and building to 12 feet near the Western
Aleutians through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Gusty westerly winds accelerating through the gaps in the western
Gulf should begin to decrease Sunday. The next system to move
into the area begins near the Bering Strait Sunday night towards
Southwest Monday morning. Models quickly diverge around this
timeframe onwards, but cool air and precipitation is expected with
this low as it moves into Southwest Alaska sometime on Monday.
The main question with this is the strength of this air mass and
how far south it will go before moving eastward. Meanwhile, high
pressure will build over the Bering Sea Monday into Tuesday.
Easterly winds are expected across the Aleutians early in the week
and a North Pacific low will approach, then move along the Aleutians
through Wednesday afternoon. This low could remain south just
enough to keep precipitation minimal due to the strengthening high
over the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 131 132 150 155 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CQ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/VR