Gale Warning 45, NWS Anchorage, AK

539 
FZAK51 PAFC 070016
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071300-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure exits the Western Gulf Fri morning. Several troughs
linger over the Northern Gulf through Sat afternoon. A 966 mb 
North Pacific low approaches the Southwestern Gulf for Sat 
afternoon. Its front extends across the Southern Gulf by Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-071300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray near the Copper River Delta.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071300-
Resurrection Bay-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071300-
Prince William Sound-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after 
midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071300-
Port Valdez-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071300-
Valdez Narrows-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071300-
Valdez Arm-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071300-
Passage Canal-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Gusts to 45 kt near Whittier.
Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071300-
Barren Islands East-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt except NW 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071300-
Chiniak Bay-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after 
midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071300-
Marmot Bay-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after 
midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071300-
Shelikof Strait-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
2 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable less than 10 kt.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-071300-
Kachemak Bay-
316 PM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

High pressure remains in place across the Yukon, extending west
across almost the entirety of mainland Alaska. A stalled out front
extending from the southern Gulf westward across all of the
Aleutians and southern Bering is acting as a train track for a
series of lows that are moving westward along that front.
Precipitation along the front is enhanced depending on where the
low is. Skies remain almost completely clear for the mainland
except along the Kenai Peninsula, and snow and rain continue at
times from Kodiak westward through to the AKPEN and Aleutians.

Gusty winds continue from the Matanuska Valley due to ongoing gap
winds to much of the Aleutians as a 968 mb low approaches Adak. An
easterly jet is following the Alaska Range and Kuskokwim Valley,
as ridging builds into the interior. The low approaching Adak is
vertically stacked.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models are in excellent agreement through Friday afternoon. A
few points of uncertainty really start from that point on. A wave
and front moving across the Alaska Range could re-up the winds a
bit through the Matanuska Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
While confidence is high that this event won't be nearly as bad as
the last one, it certainly adds insult to injury. The timing and
strength of the winds remain somewhat uncertain. Precipitation
types around the Aleutians remain a struggle as well as
temperatures hover near freezing across most of the chain. Overall
forecast confidence is high.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions continue. Winds will remain calm, generally
from the north. Next chance for precipitation expected Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3)...

A upper level blocking pattern will keep conditions cold and
clear throughout mainland Southcentral until this weekend. Further
south over Kodiak and Middleton Islands, lingering snow showers
will begin to diminish later tonight, diminishing from east to
west.

As a low over interior Canada nudges a trough west Friday
morning, the arctic high pressure will elongate to the west enough
for the upper level gradient to increase a northerly jet over
South Central. Cold advection will follow behind and help
accelerate winds through many of the north to south wind prone
gaps on Friday, especially for areas near Thompson Pass, Valdez,
and the Copper River Delta. Areas further west, such as Broad pass
and the Mat Valley will be affected on Friday as well but the
peak winds will be later in the day Friday as a more substantial
trough sinks southward Friday night into Saturday. Wind chills
will decrease with this passage as winds increase late Friday,
particularly for the Copper River Basin and Thompson Pass.

Into Saturday morning, moisture will advect into the Prince
William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula and increase chances for
snowfall with notable accumulation across the Gulf coast and
Kodiak Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Day 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

Weak zonal upper-level and surface flow will continue to bring
clear, cool, and dry conditions to the region. An upper-level
trough will descend from the north on Friday, which will slightly
cool temperatures as more arctic air is pulled south. Easterly
winds will also increase towards the end of the weak as a front
approaches the Aleutians and causes pressure gradients to tighten
over Southwest Alaska. No precipitation is expected for the work
week, but as the weekend approaches, a slight chance of
precipitation is possible over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol
Bay areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Day 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday)...

A vertically stacked compact low is currently tracking near the
western Aleutians. South to southeasterly flow wrapping around the
aforementioned low, extends eastward across the Chain and is
bringing predominately rain. The strongest easterly winds are
expected between Atka and Adak today and will diminish by early
Thursday morning. Rain/snow will reach the Pribilofs Thursday
morning and should tapper off by Friday. After a brief lull,
another series of lows will approach from the North Pacific by
Friday, leading to intermittent rain across the Aleutians into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Saturday through Monday)...

Aleutians / Bering...Broad high pressure retreats to the Russian
Arctic by Monday. An elongated area of low pressure remains South
of the Aleutians, weakening over the Western Aleutians for Monday.
Forecast confidence decreases by the end of the period.
Widespread Easterly gales spread across the Aleutians and Bering,
becoming Northerly over the Central and Western Aleutians and
Bering by Monday. Seas building to 22 feet over the Bering Sunday
and Monday. Increasing risks for freezing spray over Western
Bering open waters through Monday. A North Pacific low moves
across the Alaska Peninsula Sunday to the Central Bering for
Monday.

Gulf of Alaska...A North Pacific low moves over the Alaska
Peninsula South of Kodiak Island Sunday. Forecast confidence is
mixed based on the low's track and timing. Gusty winds increase to
widespread high end gales with boundary jets storm force winds
along the Gulf coasts, diminishing late Sunday. Seas building to
22 feet over the Gulf for Sunday, subsiding Monday.Increasing
risks for freezing spray over open waters of Cook Inlet and
Kachemak Bay on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Sunday through Wednesday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are slowly coming into agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features for the weekend but
diverge in the specific details towards the end of the period. A
blocking ridge extending from the northern Bering Sea to eastern
Siberia will continue shifting westward on Sunday, while a trough
with an embedded low retrogrades westward across the Alaska
mainland and into the eastern Bering Sea. Meanwhile, this low will
eventually phase into a broader trough to the south of the
Aleutians, with increasing southerly winds drawing a deep fetch of
tropical moisture across the Bering into the Gulf. For Sunday
through Tuesday, models seem to key on a frontal boundary
extending from a center of a low, bringing precipitation from
Kodiak Island northward to the Alaska Peninsula, and into the
southern mainland. Where the uncertainty emerges is the track,
position, and timing of subsequent surface lows circulating
upstream of the main trough, but overall are trending toward a wet
and unsettled pattern to persist. Additionally, a tightening
pressure between the retreating high to the north and low pressure
in the Gulf will create conditions favorable for windy
conditions, especially through the gaps and passes. Increasing
moisture and cloudiness will also help with the much below normal
temperatures over the last several days to rebound across much of
the coastal areas and interior valleys.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory: 131.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 121, 127-128, 130, 132, 138, 150, 155,
		 165, 170-179, 185, 352, 411-414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119, 121, 126-129, 139, 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/MF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
947 PM AKST WED JAN 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 SE PALMER             61.59N 149.09W
01/02/2022                   MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            MANY PLANES WERE FLIPPED AT THE PALMER
            MUNICIPAL AIRPORT OVER THE COURSE OF THE
            AFTERNOON AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF 70+MPH WIND
            GUSTS. WIND GUSTS PEAKED AT 88 MPH AT 5:36
            PM JAN 2.

1220 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 E WASILLA             61.58N 149.41W
01/03/2022                   MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KFC/A&W SUFFERED A CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE AS
            A WHOLE SIDE OF WALL FELL. FLYING DEBRIS WAS
            OCCURRING AT THE TIME OF REPORT.

0516 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 W PALMER              61.60N 149.13W
01/03/2022                   MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   PUBLIC

            THE ROOF OF THE CARRS GROCERY STORE IN
            PALMER BLEW OFF AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT THE
            2ND INTO THE 3RD DUE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
            OF 60-80+MPH WIND GUSTS BEGINNING JAN 1 AT
            10AM. THE WATER MAIN BROKE AFTER THE ROOF
            WAS TORN OFF WITH PROLIFIC ICING LAYERED TO
            THE SIDE OF THE BUILDING, THE PATIO, AND THE
            REMAINING ROOF STRUCTURE.

&&