Gale Warning 417, NWS Anchorage, AK

632 
FZAK51 PAFC 182336
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-191230-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1009 mb low 25 nm West of Middleton Island dissipates Tue 
morning. A 1010 mb low forms 60 nm Northwest of Kodiak City and 
moves to 80 nm Northeast of Kodiak City at 1011 mb by Wed 
afternoon. Its front extends across the Gulf through Wed 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
Resurrection Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
Prince William Sound-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
Port Valdez-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
Valdez Narrows-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming variable wind 10 kt after 
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
Valdez Arm-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
Passage Canal-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
Barren Islands East-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
Chiniak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
Marmot Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
Shelikof Strait-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
Kachemak Bay-
336 PM AKDT Mon Jul 18 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

513 
FZAK51 PAFC 191115
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-192345-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A North Pacific low and its associated front, located south of the 
Alaska Peninsula, move from across the southern Gulf into the eastern
Gulf through Wed morning. A new front enters the western Gulf Thu 
morning.

$$

PKZ119-192345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-192345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-192345-
Resurrection Bay-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-192345-
Prince William Sound-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-192345-
Port Valdez-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-192345-
Valdez Narrows-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-192345-
Valdez Arm-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-192345-
Passage Canal-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-192345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-192345-
Barren Islands East-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 kt in the morning becoming S 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-192345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-192345-
Chiniak Bay-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-192345-
Marmot Bay-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-192345-
Shelikof Strait-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-192345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-192345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-192345-
Kachemak Bay-
315 AM AKDT Tue Jul 19 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW 10 kt in the evening becoming S after midnight. Seas 2
ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKDT Sun Jul 17 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Satellite shows an upper level low near the Kenai Peninsula
slowing moving east. This is bringing widespread rain as seen on
radar and observations from the Kenai Peninsula and extending
north towards Anchorage and the MATSU valleys as well as Prince
William Sound. The Copper River Basin is mainly cloudy with a few
showers. Satellite is indicating downsloping with periods of
clearing skies from Eureka to near the Glennallen area along the
Glen Highway. Across Southwest Alaska brief clearing is occurring
with radar showing another round of rain quickly moving into the
Kuskokwim Delta. Lingering clouds and light rain are seen across
the Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay on the back side of the low
pressure system. Another quick moving shortwave and frontal system
is seen on satellite over the northern Bering which will bring
more clouds and rain to most of Southwest Alaska later today and
tonight. While the southern Bering and Aleutians have quieter
conditions with clouds and patchy fog. Finally, a polar low can be
seen over eastern Russia near the Bering Strait this will bring
cooler air to the southern mainland early next week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in overall good agreement with above normal forecast
confidence through Tuesday as several lows and shortwaves produce
rain across the region. The biggest forecast challenges will be
timing in the rain and rainfall amounts and the local gap winds
across Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain will continue through tonight with predominantly MVFR
to VFR conditions expected. The Turnagain winds are expected by
this afternoon and may turn more southerly (180-200 degrees) as
flow up Cook Inlet interacts with the Turnagain winds. These south
to southeast winds should persist through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wetting rains will continue across Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska over the several days. There will be occasional breaks in
the rain on Monday across Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wed afternoon)...

Continued wet, cloudy, and cool conditions are expected to
continue through the middle of this week. Rain is expected to
continue through the evening hours across the Anchorage Bowl,
Matanuska Valley and Susitna Valley as the large upper level
trough continues moving eastward. Rain will also continue across
the eastern Prince William Sound area through around midnight
before tapering off to more of a showery regime. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.1-0.25" are expected across the Anchorage
Bowl and Mat-SU Valleys with the current system and 0.25-0.5" for
the eastern Prince William Sound area. Residual showers are
possible across area mountains overnight through Monday though as
weak upper level shortwaves continue to move through the overall
flow aloft.

For Monday, a weak shortwave ridge builds into Southcentral
resulting in a much longer break to the rain than observed this
past weekend with almost 24 hours between systems. Areas of the
Cook Inlet region that saw some sun already this afternoon
especially down on the Kenai may see peeks of sun continue through
Monday. This will also result in a slight uptick to max
temperatures throughout the Cook Inlet region resulting in
widespread low 60s for Monday.

For Monday evening through Tuesday morning, another rather strong
upper level shortwave will rotate around the main Arctic level low
anchored in place near the Seward Peninsula to result in another
widespread rain event for Southcentral. Expect rain to overspread
the area from southwest to northeast (Kenai Peninsula north and
east towards Anchorage and the Mat-SU Valleys) Monday
evening/night and continue into Tuesday morning. Expect rainfall
amounts on the order of 0.75-1" for Anchorage, 1-1.5" for the
Matanuska Valley, 0.5-1.5" for the Susitna Valley with less south
of Skwentna, 0.25-0.5" for the Kenai Peninsula, and 1-2" for
Portage Valley and Whittier. See Special Weather Statement issued
for further details. Beyond Tuesday morning, the forecast remains
very fuzzy in regards to the timing and evolution of upper level
shortwaves but expect the wet conditions to continue. Stay tuned
to the latest forecast updates as we continue to try and hone the
timing and sensible weather details for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Groundhog day will ensue across Southwest Alaska for the
foreseeable future as a series of fronts and low pressure systems
move through the region. This is the result of a deep,
quasi-stationary upper level low that will move over the Bering
Strait this evening. With an ample cold air source present over
the Arctic Ocean and warm air over the Kamchatka Peninsula,
repetitive cyclogenesis will ensue, keeping that pattern very
active. Tuesday will likely be the nicest day of the three day
stretch in between storm systems. Temperatures are expected to be
around normal to slightly below normal for this time of year.
Expect multiple wetting rains through Wednesday with persistent
onshore flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Fairly calm and cloudy conditions are expected across the Bering
through the short term. High pressure just south of the Chain will
keep skies mostly cloudy other than some breaks in the afternoon
developing with diurnal heating. A series of fronts will move
through the region, bringing mostly small craft advisory winds and
seas. Gales are possible near Nunivak and St. Matthew Islands
Tuesday afternoon, but these may stay north near St. Lawrence
Island. Winds will be mainly out of the west, with 25 to 30 kts
primarily north of the Chain and in the Central to Western
Bering.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than
20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

Aleutians/Bering: A low pressure system is expected to move to
the eastern Bering Sea between Wednesday to Thursday. As the
system approaches Nunivak Island and along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast, there is a potential for northwesterly gale force winds on
the backside of the low. Otherwise, expect winds less than 35 kts
and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Looking ahead in the extended forecast, model runs are in good
agreement with the evolution and progression of synoptic scale
features. However, model spread begins to grow in the specific
details towards the end of the period. A deep longwave trough and
highly anomalous upper low will be located near the Bering Straits
and over western Alaska through the end of next week. This
general troughing pattern will provide widespread cooler
temperatures and rain showers across the state. By midweek, a low
pressure system crosses the northwestern part of the state with
the frontal boundary pulling a deep fetch of moisture into the
southern mainland. Models seem decently clustered with bringing
widespread enhanced rainfall from the Southwest region to Cook
Inlet and Prince William Sound between Thursday to Friday.

Subsequent upper level waves are expected to track around the
southern periphery of the main low and bring multiple rounds of
scattered rain showers continuing across the regions of the state.
By next weekend, another system moves from south of the Aleutian
Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska, increasing the prospects for
heavier rain for the southern coasts. Much of the coastal areas
and inland valleys can expect widespread rain along with some
moderate to locally terrain enhancing precipitation as increasing
southerly flow draws deep Gulf moisture. The windward terrain of
the Chugach Mountains especially can see enhanced rainfall where
moisture and orographic lift will be maximized. Significant rain
is also likely for the north gulf coasts, including Prince William
Sound and the Kenai Peninsula. By the end of the forecast period,
there are some trough orientation differences as individual model
runs vary as to where the aforementioned upper low might meander
and/or split off. Otherwise, this Fall-like pattern is likely to
persist with cool, cloudy, and wet conditions in place from the
Aleutians into the Mainland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF