Gale Warning 397, NWS Anchorage, AK

283 
FZAK62 PAFC 240007
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-241345-
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

High pressure moves into Mainland Alaska for Fri afternoon. A 
1002 mb low at 51N 177E moves into Northern Kamchatka by Sat 
afternoon. Its front extends over the Central Aleutians through 
Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-241345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ412-241345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ413-241345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ414-241345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
407 PM AKDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

007 
FZAK62 PAFC 241201
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-250045-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 1002 mb low at 54N 177E moves north into Russia by Sat 
afternoon. Its front extends over the Central Aleutians through 
Sat afternoon. A 1008 mb low develops along that front near 
52N 171E and moves north on Saturday.

$$

PKZ411-250045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-250045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-250045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-250045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
401 AM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level ridge extends from the central Aleutians northeast
across the southern half of the state. A weak upper-level wave
rotating around an area of low pressure over British Columbia is
moving through the Copper River Basin this afternoon. As such,
convection has again initiated off of the higher terrain with
towering cumulus seen building along the periphery of the basin
on visible satellite imagery. For the rest of Southcentral,
conditions are generally clear, warm, and dry with the upper-level
ridge axis parked overhead. Temperatures from interior Kenai
Peninsula to the Mat-Su Valleys are already in the lower to mid
70s as of 1pm.

For Southwest, an easterly traversing shortwave riding over top
the ridge is continuing its push toward the Middle Kuskokwim
Valley. A band of rain showers along the surface trough this
morning is beginning to fall apart as the trough weakens.
Temperatures across Southwest are cooler today due largely to
the increase in clouds cover associated both with this system
and with marine stratus lingering across Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Delta coast.

This area of low stratus extends westward to blanket most of the
eastern half of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. A front associated
with the North Pacific low is draped over the western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement with the synoptic pattern through
the short term. The biggest challenge over the next 24 to 48
hours will be the extent of convective activity across Southcentral
as a series of shortwaves move over the top the upper-level ridge.
The 18z runs are indicating an area of low to mid-level convergence
between northeasterly flow around the low over British Columbia
and a transitioning wet-northwesterly flow ahead of the wave
moving across Southwest Alaska. Thus, the most recent runs are
more bullish on the potential for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening over the Talkeetnas and Copper River Basin.
The 18z NAM, WRF, and HRRR models are also hinting at convective
development, perhaps elevated convection based on data from the
PANC 12z sounding, this evening over the Susitna Valley. Given
this, the afternoon forecast package has been adjusted to include
a larger area for isolated thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. A
westerly sea breeze is expected to develop by midday and will
continue through the evening hours. Light and variable winds
will return for the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and generally dry conditions are expected across Southcentral
through the next several days. The biggest short-term forecast
challenge will be the extent of convective activity each afternoon
and evening through the end of the week. The most recent hi-res
model runs are indicating a stronger area of convergence and lift
along the western and southern portions of the Copper River Basin
today (Wednesday). As such, there may be a larger expanse of
thunderstorm activity through this evening over these locations.
Still thinking isolated to widely scattered in nature. There may
also be a second area of focus for convective development this
evening. Models are now hinting at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms across the Susitna Valley this evening. There is
also the potential that any activity over this area may be
elevated in nature, and could continue into the nighttime hours.
Again, activity would be isolated to widely scattered; however, it
is a change in thinking from earlier today. Convective activity
still looks to be mainly confined to the Copper River Basin for
Thursday afternoon and evening.

Expect a warming and drying trend through the next several days
across Southwest Alaska. Clouds and lower temperatures today in
association with a trough will give way to a ridge settling over
the region to end the week. Expect widespread 70s, and perhaps a
few 80 degree temperatures by Friday or Saturday. Fog and low
stratus, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours, may
linger for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and southern Bristol Bay
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Thursday
evening)...

A building ridge over Southcentral will promote warm, dry
conditions. Conditions favoring convective activity seen in the
Talkeetna Mountains and Copper River Basin this afternoon are
expected to persist into the evening. On Thursday, an upper level
wave traverses Southcentral from west to east, bringing an
increased chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into
Friday, particularly over the Copper River Basin. The ridge of
high pressure expected to build and remain over Southcentral into
the weekend. Marine stratus is present in the Gulf, however
coastal impacts not prominent due to general off-shore flow.
Gusty conditions seen now from Kamishak Bay to Shelikof Strait
and expected to diminish Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a positive tilt ridge axis bisecting southern Alaska
this evening. There is a weak trough north of this ridge that will
quickly exist the region and then the high builds back even
stronger Thursday and Friday. The 576 DAM ridge will be north of
Iliamna and Bethel by 12z Friday. The positive height anomalies at
500 mb become very pronounced Friday and Saturday. Expect a
warming trend over the interior locations with highs in the upper
70s and possibly lower 80s. Along the coast and Nunivak Island,
warm air over cold water is inherently stable so expect areas of
fog and low clouds over portions of the AKPEN and in Bristol Bay
especially in the mornings. Yesterday, there were over 2,000
lightning strikes in the state of Alaska most of which were in the
interior and in the Copper River Basin. This evening there is
potential for isolated wet thunderstorms along the Western Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a mature low southwest of Attu Island that will push a
front eastward and across the Aleutian chain. The leading edge of
the precipitation shield will reach the eastern Aleutians by
Friday. Unsettled weather with showers and small craft to gale
force winds will move across the Aleutians from west to east.
The front will begin to weaken in the vicinity of the Eastern
Aleutians by Friday. The longwave trough will linger over the
Bering and North Pacific through Sunday, which signals an active
pattern for the Bering and the Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Weakening low wanders around the Western
Bering through Monday. Its front pushes into the Alaska Peninsula
by Monday. Forecast confidence is fair with the front's movement.
Gusty Southerly winds across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Eastern Bering, diminishing. Seas less than 10 feet, subsiding.

Gulf of Alaska: High pressure lingers across the Gulf through
Monday. Forecast confidence is good. Generally light winds over
the Gulf. Seas mostly 6 feet or less.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Upper level ridging is expected to dominate the period from
Sunday through Wednesday, especially across Southcentral Alaska
eastward towards Canada. The ridge will maintain strength for the
first two days of the period before heights begin to fall some for
Tuesday and Wednesday. As the heights fall Tuesday and Wednesday,
the center of the upper ridge will be moving eastward over the
Northwest Territories of Canada. With the ridge still holding
fairly strong through this period, any shower/thunderstorm
activity looks to be limited due to the subsidence aloft. Any
activity looks like it would be mostly confined to the higher
terrain. Overall, the odds are favoring above normal temperatures
to continue along with below normal precipitation. Similar
conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska, however, a
decaying (frontolysis) front over the area will keep portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta unsettled for Sunday before heights build for
Monday through Wednesday. Any shower/thunderstorm activity is
favored to be across the higher terrain across Southwest as well.

Over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians, an upper level low is
expected to remain over the area that will keep the region
unsettled. Model guidance generally agrees on low pressure being
in the area but diverge on exactly where it will go.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/MV