Gale Warning 365, NWS Anchorage, AK

492 
FZAK62 PAFC 201152
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210030-
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb North Pacific low near 49N 167W moves to 51N 172W at 998 mb
Sun morning. Its front wraps into the Southern Bering and across the
Alaska Peninsula through Sat afternoon. Several troughs lift 
northwestward across the northern Bering through Sat evening.

$$

PKZ411-210030-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming 15 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210030-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210030-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 AM AKDT Fri May 20 2022

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Thu May 19 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Both Southwest and Southcentral are enjoying clear skies this
morning thanks to a longwave ridge of high pressure over the
eastern Bering and interior Alaska. This is providing clear
conditions as well as light and variable winds for much of the
region. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery depicts continued
marine stratus over the western and northern Bering with the
Pribilofs experiencing reduced visibility and low cloud ceilings.
The biggest change noted this morning is the arrival of upper
level clouds into the Eastern Aleutians as a North Pacific low and
its front slowly lift northward from the south. Easterly gales
will develop from Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef to Nikolski on the
Pacific side later tonight with the front's passage.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The timing of a frontal passage into the Aleutian Chain and
Alaska Peninsula remains one of the primary challenges this
forecast period. While models are in relatively good agreement
showing the front and associated precipitation moving into the
Eastern Aleutians by midday Thursday, timing of the front's
progression further east and into the Alaska Peninsula and
mainland Alaska is more uncertain. The overall strength of the
ridge over Southcentral will play a big part in the timing of
precipitation into southwest and eventually Kodiak Island. Another
feature models have been showing is the passage of a shortwave
trough into Bristol Bay late on Friday. The passage of the wave
should correlate well with the front's passage and the onset of
precipitation into interior Southwest. Some minor differences are
noted with the GFS and NAM reasonably timed together, but the
Canadian is somewhat weaker and slower.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Thursday through Saturday)...

The upper level ridge will continue to dominate the region
through the end of the week. Sunny skies and above-average high
temperatures are expected across Southcentral through Friday. The
ridge will begin to break down on Saturday as a front enters the
Gulf but likely only bring some increased cloud cover to inland
areas of Southcentral. By Friday the likelihood of afternoon and
evening Turnagain Arm winds, as well as Knik Valley and Copper
River winds, will increase as the surface ridge noses along the
north Gulf coast due to the approaching front into the
Southwestern Gulf.

Rain will begin Friday over Kodiak Island before moving northward,
possibly bringing rain to the eastern Kenai Peninsula by Saturday
morning. There is enough uncertainty with how this will play out
due to a secondary low which will develop along the front on
Friday and then move into the Gulf near Kodiak on Saturday. The
way this low develops and tracks will have a large impact on how
fast the ridge over Southcentral breaks down.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Clear and dry conditions will continue through tonight and into
portions of Friday as high pressure tracks northeastward out of
the Bering and over the Mainland. As a result, high temperatures
will range from the mid 60s to low 70s in many locations. Chances
of precipitation will increase along the coastal areas as a front
tracks northeastward from a surface low pushing towards the
Central Aleutians. The aforementioned front will push over the
Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay Friday. However, the
aforementioned surface low (located south of Dutch Harbor) will
stall and remain quasi- stationary, resulting in keeping winds out
of the southeast through Saturday. Light showers will creep up
the coast from the Alaska Peninsula/Bristol Bay area through this
weekend and reach the Kuskokwim Bay by Saturday. Light showers
will linger around much of the coastal areas through Sunday as the
aforementioned front pushes through the region and as another
surface low tracks near the Alaska Peninsula Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Areas of low stratus and fog sit over the central Bering and north
of the Alaska Peninsula under a ridge of high pressure. A trough
extending out of Russia and over the Western Aleutians, along
with a North Pacific low, is pushing the aforementioned high
pressure northeast towards the Southern Mainland. By Friday
evening, the aforementioned low will be just south of Dutch Harbor
and will have gusty winds and precipitation accompanying it. The
front extending off the North Pacific low will move off the
Eastern Aleutians this afternoon and bring widespread small craft
winds, with areas of gales, on the Pacific side overnight tonight,
and rain showers. As a result, expect wave heights to increase on
the Pacific side of the chain and north towards the Pribilof
Islands. The aforementioned low will stall and remain quasi-
stationary, resulting in keeping winds out of the southeast
through Saturday. Widespread showers will remain over much the
region through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Saturday through Monday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front enters the Southern Gulf Sunday, and
extends across the Gulf through Monday. A low on the front moves
over Kodiak Island into the Alaska Peninsula by Monday. Forecast
confidence is fair, due to the track of the low. Gusty Easterly
winds with the front stretch across the Gulf, with areas of gales
over Kamishak Bay, Shelikof Strait, Sitkinak and along the Alaska
Peninsula coast, diminishing Saturday. An Easterly gale force
barrier jet forms along the North Gulf Coast, with a Westerly
element South of the low, diminishing Monday. Seas to 16 feet East
of Kodiak Island, subsiding Sunday.

Bering Sea: A well developed low remains South of the Aleutians
through Monday. Several troughs push across the Bering through
Monday. Forecast confidence is fair, due to the track of the low.
Widespread gusty winds surround the North Pacific low, with areas
of gales from Bristol Bay into the Central Bering, diminishing
Sunday. Seas to 14 feet on the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula, subsiding Saturday, and 10 feet or less over the
Bering, subsiding Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

A Rex Block pattern is likely during the extended period as upper
level ridging extends across the Bering Strait from Siberia to
the northern Alaskan mainland while an upper level low lingers
along the central and eastern Aleutian Islands. This pattern tilts
the odds in favor of warmer than normal temperatures and below
normal precipitation across Southwest Alaska. This pattern also
tilts the odds slightly in favor of cooler than normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation across the Copper
Basin towards the AlCan Border.

The area with the most uncertainty are easterly waves associated
with the aforementioned low. These waves are likely to bring rain
and showers to Kodiak Island, though confidence is lower on how
far these waves will move over Southwest Alaska. Another area of
uncertainty is the wind forecast across the coastal waters as
guidance shows significant differences in the placement and
intensity of the surface low along the Alaska Peninsula and
western Gulf of Alaska late this weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Advisory 141.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 155 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/ED