Gale Warning 302, NWS Anchorage, AK

872 
FZAK62 PAFC 162314
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171245-
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low at 59N 175W merges with a 966 mb North Pacific low 
by Sun morning to form a 970 mb low at 53N 178E. It moves to 54N 
166W at 980 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt becoming E 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...N wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171245-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
314 PM AKDT Sat Apr 16 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 0 to 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

038 
FZAK62 PAFC 171138
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-180115-
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 mb low at 60N 176W merges with a 966 mb North Pacific low 
by Sun afternoon to form a 970 mb low at 53N 177W. It moves to 
54N 163W at 980 mb by Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ411-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-180115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

246 
FZAK62 PAFC 172340
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-181315-
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 53N 177W moves to 54N 165W at 980 mb Monday
afternoon and then moves to 54N 158W Tuesday afternoon at 987 mb. 

$$

PKZ411-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt decreasing to 15 to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-181315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 PM AKDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

365 
FZAK62 PAFC 181154
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190045-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 53N 165W moves to 54N 162W at 983 mb by Tue
morning and then to 53N 161W Tuesday afternoon at 991 mb.

$$

PKZ411-190045-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt diminishing to up to 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W of 175 W NW wind 30 to 45 kt. E of 175W E wind 15 to 30
mph. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190045-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190045-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

091 
FZAK62 PAFC 182219
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191315-
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 979 mb low at 54N 165W moves along the front into the North 
Pacific weakening to 985 mb by Wed afternoon. A 996 mb South 
Kamchatka low and a 1006 mb North Pacific low merge to form a 978 
mb low at 49N 175E Wed morning. This low strengthens to 967 mb as 
it moves to 50N 177E and its front moves over the Western 
Aleutians for Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt in the morning then NW 15 to 30 kt. Seas 
7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind up to 20 kt diminishing to up to 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming NE up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
219 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
508 PM AKDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The upper level ridge that has been over mainland Alaska this week
remains in place in spite of the low in the Bering Sea running
into it. This low is vertically stacked in the northern Bering
Sea and has become nearly stationary. The jet stream is just
south of the Aleutians and reaching around 180 kt at its core
at the 250 mb level. This set-up is bringing more clouds into
Southcentral today. The front is over the the northern part of the
Bristol Bay zone and the Kuskokwim Valley and there are still
some areas of rain and snow in those areas, but most of it has
ended as the front dissipates.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement into Tuesday before some
noticeable differences emerge in the Bering Sea and Aleutians
with a low moving across the Aleutians from the west. Until then,
just the smaller meso-effects that drive Turnagain Arm winds and
other such effects will be the main difference in models.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Winds are a challenge for this
afternoon and evening, as the airport is right in the transition
area between northerly winds and southeasterly winds. A lack of
strong forcing for one wind to dominate another means winds may
switch back and forth multiple times. However, this will be
short-lived and lighter winds should settle back in by 06Z this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3...Tonight
through Monday afternoon)...

A ridge of high pressure over the mainland is retreating northward,
while a front extending from a low in the Bering Sea is slowly
moving eastward toward the central Gulf of Alaska. Ahead of the
front, a decent plume of moisture and warmer air aloft is advecting
from south to north. Precipitation type for Kodiak will continue
as rain as the atmospheric column of air warms above the surface.
With a slow progression of the front, another 0.5-1.00" of rainfall
is expected for the region through Saturday afternoon. A chance
mix of rain/snow will works its way toward the north gulf coast,
including Whittier, Cordova, and Valdez, while inland valleys
remain relatively dry under mostly cloudy skies. Gusty,
southeasterly winds will continue over the Gulf waters and
channel along Turnagain Arm and higher elevations. Winds will
diminish Saturday afternoon as the aforementioned front weakens.

From Saturday evening through Sunday morning, an Arctic shortwave
trough pushes southward from the AK-Yukon Territory. With weak
instability, cooler air aloft, and mid-level forcing ascent,
isolated to scattered mountain snow showers are possible for the
Copper River Basin and Hatcher Pass. As we head into Monday, a
ridge of pressure will reestablish over the mainland, with mostly
clear skies and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather continues across Southwest Alaska over the next
couple of days as a mix of rain and snow showers continue. Shower
activity will decrease during the later half of the weekend as
upper level ridging nudges into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active pattern is expected for the Bering/Aleutians as a series
of low pressure systems move through the area. The first low is
currently over the central Bering and is in the process of
weakening. This low will continue to weaken and then the energy
from this low will be absorbed into the next low that is the
extra-tropical remnants of Typhoon Malakas. The resulting low will
produce widespread gale force winds with storm force gusts across
the Aleutians Saturday night through Monday.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Generally calm conditions will prevail across
most of the Gulf with light winds and seas less than 10 ft
throughout the outlook period.

Bering Sea: The post-tropical remnant of former Typhoon Malakas
will essentially be an ordinary and weakening Bering low by early
next week, with the center expected to cross the eastern Aleutians
into the North Pacific on Monday. Expect widespread gale force
winds with this system Sunday through Monday, with good potential
for a small corridor of storm force gusts in both the southeasterlies
ahead of the low and northwesterlies behind the low. As with the
most recent storm, southeasterly winds will be particularly strong
through bays and passes along the southern Alaska Peninsula. The
extended duration of steady gales will maintain 15 to 20 ft seas
across the far southern Bering through early Tuesday, with up to
25 ft seas on the Pacific side of the eastern Aleutians.

Winds and waves will diminish in the wake of this storm Tuesday,
but there is potential for a large North Pacific low to enter
the southern Bering Sea and possibly undergo rapid deepening.
However, forecast uncertainty increases markedly for this next
system, and confidence for timing/location of higher seas and
winds is low at this point.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The outlook for next week deteriorates from reasonably clear to
very unclear remarkably quickly, with model agreement and run to
run consistency sorely lacking by the end of next week. What's
more clear is that a turn from mostly quiet to very active
conditions is becoming increasingly likely, especially out west.
Looking at the start of the period on Tuesday, what's left of
post-tropical Malakas should finally be exiting the picture as
the remnant low is steered southeast from south of the Alaska
Peninsula out to sea by strong northwest flow downstream from a
transient ridge developing across the Aleutians. Areas of rain or
rain/snow mix along the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula should mostly shut off by Tuesday evening as the low
departs. Steady, light rain and snow along a stalled out frontal
axis stretching from near Dutch Harbor to St Matthew will hang
around a bit longer into early Wednesday as the front degrades.
Meanwhile, a stubborn blocking high centered up near the North
Slope will remain in place through at least Wednesday, while a
weak upper low drifts across the southern mainland within weak
easterly flow on the south side of the blocking high. Cool
mid/upper temperatures and weak lift around this easterly wave/low
will support isolated to scattered shower activity as it moves
across Southcentral on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over
inland valleys lacking snow cover where afternoon heating will
be most effective.

Pattern details begin to fall apart for the latter half of next
week, with operational runs diverging significantly for the
progression and eventual interaction of two separate shortwave
troughs moving east/northeast towards the Bering from the
northwest Pacific. However, there are ever increasing signs
these two features will phase together as they reach the
Bering/Aleutians late on Wednesday or Thursday, supporting
potential for strong cyclogenesis and resulting development of
a large, powerful surface low near or over the southern Bering.
This low appears most likely to move east roughly along the
Aleutians between Wednesday and Thursday, then approach the Alaska
Peninsula or western Gulf by Friday. While it's difficult to get
into details due to major differences in model handling of this
system, it's likely we will see far-reaching impacts for much of
the forecast area from this system, assuming support continues to
grow for the scenario above late next week. This could range from
potential moderate to heavy precipitation, very strong winds, and
high seas for portions of the forecast area, depending on
how/where the system develops and tracks east. Check back for
forecast updates for the Wednesday to Friday timeframe as details
for this possible stronger system become more apparent.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 175 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ED
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS