Gale Warning 249, NWS Anchorage, AK

401 
FZAK52 PAFC 101216
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-110115-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 979 mb low 150 nm Southeast of Unalaska elongates and moves 80
nm North of Cold Bay at 992 mb by Sat morning. A 987 mb low 220 nm
South of Attu remains nearly stationary and weakens to 996 mb by 
Sat morning. A front extends over the Aleutians and Alaska 
Peninsula through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-110115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt except SE 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-110115-
Bristol Bay-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-110115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except NE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-110115-
Unalaska Bay-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-110115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ173-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-110115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-110115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-110115-
Adak to Kiska-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-110115-
Kiska to Attu-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-110115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-110115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ181-110115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-110115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 AM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

821 
FZAK52 PAFC 102357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-111245-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

An elongated 981 mb low 140 nm South of Sand Point loops to 30 nm 
East of Chignik at 997 mb and dissipates Sat morning. Its front 
extends into Southwest Alaska through Sat afternoon. A 987 mb low 
290 nm Southwest of Attu moves to 265 nm South of Adak at 996 mb 
and dissipates Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-111245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-111245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-111245-
Bristol Bay-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-111245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except NE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-111245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-111245-
Unalaska Bay-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-111245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-111245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-111245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-111245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-111245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-111245-
Adak to Kiska-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-111245-
Kiska to Attu-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ179-111245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-111245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Freezing
spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-111245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ185-111245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
257 PM AKST Thu Mar 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
442 AM AKST Wed Mar 9 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

In the mid-upper levels, a low pressure system with multiple vort
lobes rotating around it is developing south of the eastern
Aleutians. At the surface, this is creating a multi-center low
south of the central Aleutians, with a trough that stretches
westward along the island chain. An inverted trough stretches from
the low northeast into southwest Alaska. A ridge of high pressure
aloft stretches north through the Gulf of Alaska into the eastern
part of the state. This ridge is currently blocking any eastward
movement of the aforementioned low. There are also a myriad of
shortwaves/vort maxes moving across South Central and Southwest
Alaska and the Aleutian chain. All of this is occurring under
broad low pressure across the forecast area and abundant moisture
in place.

Snow is occurring across portions of South Central, including the
Kenia Peninsula and Prince William Sound and Anchorage, with rain
occuring on Kodiak Island, down the Aleutian Chain, and along
coastal areas from the Alaska Peninsula to Togiak. Areas of snow
were also occurring inland and along the western Alaska coast.
Temperatures ranged from mainly in the teens in the Copper River
region to the upper 20s and 30s elsewhere.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in relatively good agreement with regard to the large
scale features and pattern through Friday. The multi center
surface low south of the central Aleutians will merge into a
single low, with another low becoming better defined just south of
the western Aleutians. As these two features develop, models show
them moving slightly north over the islands where they basically
sit through Saturday. Aloft, the pattern is more complex with
multiple regions of lows or elongated troughs. Models are in
pretty good agreement with those features though, so confidence
remains high for a long duration, but mostly light precipitation
event across the region. That being said, the details are
problematic, making it difficult to pinpoint exact timing of
heavier bands.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR to MVFR cigs/vis are expected through the afternoon
with light snow continuing. While conditions are expected to
improve later this afternoon, the light snow will likely continue.
Winds will remain light.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Wednesday through Friday)...

A series of fronts and shortwaves move across the Gulf through the
short term, the first of which advances over Southcentral this
morning. Falling precipitation can already be seen on radar
across the Kenai Peninsula and over Anchorage, most of which is
snow aside from Homer/Seldovia where brief periods of rain/snow
mix have been observed. Snow is expected to transition over to
rain along portions of the southern Kenai Peninsula this morning
and then a rain/snow mix further north to Nikiski by this
afternoon. Isolated pockets of freezing rain are possible across
the Kenai Peninsula as well, however, they are likely to be
fleeting and low impact. An influx of warmer air will allow for a
period of rain/snow mix for the Anchorage area and may extend as
far north of Talkeetna Thursday night.

A long duration snowfall event is expected across much of
Southcentral as each front progresses towards the coast one right
after the other, most of which will be over the Susitna Valley and
Copper River Basin. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches is
expected for Anchorage up to Palmer and Wasilla, as well as
western Prince William Sound, including Whittier and Portage, and
Seward. The Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin will see most of
the snow accumulations. The Susitna Valley will see an average of
6 to 8 inches of new snowfall, with isolated pockets of up to 10
inches. The highest snow amounts area expected along the Parks
Highway between Willow and Talkeetna. Most of the snow
accumulation in the Copper Basin is confined from Gakona north,
with amounts of 6 to 10 inches and localized amounts up to 12
inches. The peak intensity of snowfall is anticipated to begin
during the late afternoon today and last through Thursday.
Snowfall then becomes light and intermittent by Friday and will
continue as such throughout the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

An active weather producing pattern will continue over the
Southwest due to a longwave trough dominating the Bering. Various
shortwaves rotating around the aforementioned trough will track
northward into Southwest Alaska, which will create multiple rounds
of precipitation through the end of the week. Models continue to
struggle with the evolution of these shortwaves, so precipitation
timing, intensity, and location remain relatively low in
confidence. The first shortwave to impact the Southwest is already
pushing a warm front across the region. Rain is spreading across
the Aleutian Range and into the northern Bristol Bay coast.
Further inland, precipitation may start off as snow, though a
quick transition to rain is expected as warm air works in behind
the front. Rain is likely to spread as far north as the Kuskokwim
Delta today, though precipitation type is expected to remain snow
or rain/snow mix for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. The
aforementioned warm front will bring warm southeasterly flow aloft
and stall over the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley
area. This will result in a long duration precipitation event.

Northeasterly winds will increase near the surface over the
Kuskokwim Delta in response to a broad low moving over the Alaska
Peninsula/eastern Aleutians. This will draw colder air from
Interior Alaska to the area and lower temperatures across the
delta this evening. This set-up leads to the potential for a band
of freezing rain to develop and move southward through the night
as temperatures cool. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued as
a result for the potential of up to one tenth of an inch of ice
accumulation north and west of a line from Bethel to Kipnuk.
Freezing rain will eventually transition to snow north to south as
the warm nose causing the freezing rain retreats southward. The
potential for freezing rain may persist near Kipnuk into Thursday
morning until precipitation begins to taper off. The warmer
airmass being drawn up from the North Pacific will begin to get
cutoff as a broad weak low tracks into the eastern Bering and
occludes. This will lead to temperatures cooling and a gradual
return to a rain/snow mix for inland portions of Bristol Bay
tonight into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to cool and
precipitation will diminish through Friday as the front weakens
and the broad low starts to track westward.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Friday)...

Out west, a front associated with a broad North Pacific low will
lift slowly across the western/central Aleutians throughout today.
This will produce gusty easterly winds and bring rain into the
area. Winds will gradually weaken as the front and its parent low
lift northward and exit the Bering by tonight.

Out east, a broad, weak low will push a front through the eastern
Aleutians today which will result in another round of rain. The
low will then cross near the southern tip of the of the Alaska
Peninsula/eastern Aleutians and move into the eastern Bering
through Thursday. Its front will move over the Pribilof Islands as
northeasterly winds develop. This could lead to the potential for
blowing snow to develop over the Pribilofs. Models continue to
struggle with the exact track of the low and its front, which
includes the strength of winds across the Pribilofs on Thursday.
This uncertainty could impact whether blowing snow will eventually
materialize or not. Therefore, forecast confidence decreases
beyond Wednesday.

&&
.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front moves over the North Gulf Coast for
Saturday. A series of weak lows will track along the front through
Sunday. Forecast confidence is good. Areas of gusty Southerly
winds over the Gulf, becoming Easterly on Sunday. Seas to 12 feet
over the Southwest Gulf, subsiding.

Bering Sea: An elongated low over the Bering becomes more
consolidated South of the Western Aleutians for Sunday. Forecast
confidence is moderate, but decreases by Sunday. Gusty Easterly
winds with areas of gales across the Northern Bering, diminishing.
Seas to 14 feet, subsiding. Gusty Westerly winds with areas of
gales South of the Aleutians, diminishing. Seas to 14 feet
subsiding.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Models remain in good agreement for a strong blocking pattern to
remain in place at the start of the period on Saturday, with a
closed off upper ridge staying put over Siberia north of a large
upper low with several embedded smaller waves stretched out along
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. The upstream blocking pattern
will keep benign conditions in place initially across the Bering
and Southwest, with a showery regime in place through Sunday along
the Aleutians near weak areas of low pressure. Across Southcentral,
weak onshore flow will drive areas of rain and snow along the
north Gulf Coast and across parts of Kodiak Island on Saturday,
but things should mostly dry out by Sunday as a low moves south of
the Gulf and as offshore winds develop.

It continues to look likely for a big pattern shift to take place
early next week, with potential for temperatures to take quite a
plunge across portions of Southwest and Southcentral. Models
continue to show a polar low cross the western Arctic around the
periphery of the the blocking ridge on Sunday, then nearly
straight south into mainland Alaska by Monday and Tuesday. This
could send an outbreak of Arctic air into much of the southern
mainland, with temperatures dipping well below average and perhaps
below zero in some places away from the coast, including the
Middle Kuskokwim Valley and Copper River Basin. Increasing north
to northeast flow aloft combined with strong cold air advection
could also lead to gusty winds through gaps and passes near the
north Gulf Coast, Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians, though
this will depend on the the track of the upper level low as it
drives frigid air south. Bottom line, the possibility of much
colder temperatures moving in across much of the forecast area by
Monday and Tuesday next week is gaining further traction.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 141, 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 130-131, 138, 185.
         Heavy Freezing Spray: 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/AS