Gale Warning 196, NWS Anchorage, AK

278 
FZAK51 PAFC 241241
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-250200-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

 front over the Northern Gulf dissipates by Thu afternoon. A 973
mb North Pacific low approaching the Alaska Peninsula Fri morning
sends another front across the Gulf through Fri night. The front
dissipates along the North Gulf Coast Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-250200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-250200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 18
feet in the evening building to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-250200-
Resurrection Bay-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-250200-
Prince William Sound-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-250200-
Port Valdez-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-250200-
Valdez Narrows-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-250200-
Valdez Arm-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-250200-
Passage Canal-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt in the morning increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-250200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 16 
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-250200-
Barren Islands East-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt in the evening increasing to 50 kt. Seas 19 
ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-250200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-250200-
Chiniak Bay-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-250200-
Marmot Bay-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 10
feet in the evening building to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-250200-
Shelikof Strait-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt in the evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas 9
feet in the evening building to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-250200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-250200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-250200-
Kachemak Bay-
341 AM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3
ft in the evening building to 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

543 
FZAK51 PAFC 250055
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-251330-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front moves over the North Gulf Coast by Fri afternoon. A new 
front moves over the Western Gulf through Sat afternoon. A 991 mb 
North Pacific low Sat morning moves to 190 nm South of Cape 
Yakataga at 988 mb for Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-251330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except SE 35 kt near the coast.
Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-251330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-251330-
Resurrection Bay-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-251330-
Prince William Sound-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-251330-
Port Valdez-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-251330-
Valdez Narrows-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-251330-
Valdez Arm-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-251330-
Passage Canal-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-251330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ131-251330-
Barren Islands East-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt near the Barren Islands
after midnight. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-251330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-251330-
Chiniak Bay-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-251330-
Marmot Bay-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-251330-
Shelikof Strait-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-251330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 45 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-251330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-251330-
Kachemak Bay-
355 PM AKST Thu Feb 24 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Outer Bay...E wind 35 kt. Inner Bay...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.FRI NIGHT...Outer Bay...S wind 15 kt. Inner Bay...Variable wind 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

687 
FZAK51 PAFC 251233
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-260130-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf moves to the North Gulf Coast by Fri
afternoon and then dissipates by Sat morning. A 985 mb low enters
the western Gulf by Sun morning.

$$

PKZ119-260130-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Along the
coast, E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon.. Seas 23 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Along the coast, SE 35 kt diminishing
to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-260130-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-260130-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-260130-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-260130-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-260130-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-260130-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-260130-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-260130-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt in the morning becoming SE 35 kt. Gusts to 65
kt in the morning. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-260130-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt in the morning becoming S 30 kt. Gusts to 65
kt in the morning. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-260130-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ136-260130-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-260130-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-260130-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ139-260130-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-260130-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-260130-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt in the morning becoming SE 25 kt. Gusts to 50
kt in the morning. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

200 
FZAK51 PAFC 260004
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261345-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the Eastern Gulf remains nearly stationary through 
Sun afternoon. A 995 mb North Pacific low moves to 85 nm South of 
Middleton Island at 994 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261345-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Near the coast, E wind 35 kt
diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261345-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261345-
Resurrection Bay-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261345-
Prince William Sound-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261345-
Port Valdez-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261345-
Valdez Narrows-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261345-
Valdez Arm-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261345-
Passage Canal-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261345-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261345-
Barren Islands East-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261345-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261345-
Chiniak Bay-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261345-
Marmot Bay-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261345-
Shelikof Strait-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt S of Cape Kuliak. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261345-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S of Anchor Point...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after 
midnight. N of Anchor Point...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261345-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.MON...S wind 10 kt.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-261345-
Kachemak Bay-
304 PM AKST Fri Feb 25 2022

.TONIGHT...Outer Bay...SE wind 20 kt. Inner Bay...Variable wind less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Outer Bay...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Inner Bay...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
540 AM AKST Wed Feb 23 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level ridge is becoming increasingly amplified in the over
much of Alaska this morning. The prevailing upper level winds
around its periphery are beginning to take on an omega block
formation, with streamlines extending from the Alaska Peninsula
well northwest into the western Arctic, then around the crest of
the ridge back down into the Yukon. Across Southcentral, areas of
fog and low stratus have developed overnight under this ridge
over low valleys, including parts of the Kenai Peninsula, MatSu
Valleys and Copper River Basin. Out west, a large upper low
centered south of Attu continues to spin in place with a
plethora of embedded waves rotating through the Bering and
Aleutians within the broad cyclonic flow. One of the stronger
waves moving out of the North Pacific is beginning to aid in the
formation of a new low near Nikolski as it lifts north along a
fragmented frontal axis stretching across the central Bering.
Gusty southeast winds up to gale force continue out ahead of this
frontal zone, with some of the stronger gusts beginning to pick up
through gaps along the Aleutian Range and over parts of Bristol
Bay.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

In spite of the smaller scale complexities involving the Bering
low, models are in very good agreement overall through the end of
this week. Models are overall handling even most of the series of
smaller waves expected to move north into the Bering around the
persistent blocking ridge in a fairly similar fashion. There
remains a good signal for a much deeper shortwave to move up from
the North Pacific into the Alaska Peninsula by early Friday
morning. Some subtle differences begin to pick up with this next
stronger system as it moves northwest into the Southwest on
Friday, with the GFS notably faster and slightly deeper with the
attendant surface low crossing into the eastern Bering by around
this point in time. Some differences remain for the amount of
cooling low level temperatures over Southwest near the low by
Friday as well, yielding questions as to whether any rain over the
interior Southwest could mix with or change to snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Fog has managed to develop on the west side of town under
high pressure ridging and calming winds this morning. Periods of
LIFR visibility/ceilings are expected until around or just after
sunrise as the fog lifts into low stratus and then scatters out
later in the morning. Otherwise, expect light north winds and VFR
conditions for the remainder of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Wednesday through
Friday night)...

The upper-level ridge that provided much of Southcentral with a
respite from the recent active weather is cresting over the region
this morning. Areas of stratus and fog continue to linger this
morning due to subsidence from the ridge combined with weak flow
near the surface and residual low-level moisture. The fog is most
prevalent in locations where melting occurred yesterday and clear
skies overnight allowed for radiational cooling.

With the ridge moving east today, the respite from the active
weather will end and the active weather pattern will return. The
first signs of this is already taking place in across Kodiak
Island as a front lifts north from the western Gulf this morning.
This front will weaken as a secondary front develops off a surface
low spinning up over the North Pacific and moves quickly on the
heels of the first. Multiple upper-level waves will move north
along the front as the surface front moves east into the Gulf.
Broad southeasterly flow ahead of these features will tap into a
deep fetch of moisture which will wring out along the Southcentral
coast from Kodiak Island to Prince William Sound through Thursday
night, especially in favored upslope regions along the coastal
mountains. The intensity of the precipitation will ebb and flow
with each passing shortwave. Downsloping is expected along the lee
of the mountains due to a strong and persistent southeasterly
(cross-barrier) flow. Thus, little, if any, precipitation is
expected from Kenai north to Palmer and Talkeetna. As the front
moves closer to the Kenai Peninsula, the pressure gradient will
tighten significantly, leading to strong Turnagain Arm winds
beginning Wednesday afternoon. A slight uptick in northeasterly
winds across the Matanuska Valley is also possible due to the
orientation of the pressure gradient.

With a broad southeasterly flow, temperatures are expected to warm
through the duration of this first event. Precipitation that may
start as snow or a mix of rain and snow along the coast should
quickly change to rain as snow levels climb to around 1,000 feet
around the southern Kenai Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon and
across the eastern Kenai Peninsula by Thursday morning.

By late Thursday, a surface low will spin up south of the AKPen
and quickly move north as it deepens. This feature will advance
yet another front into the Gulf, first impacting Kodiak with
strong easterly winds and rains by Thursday evening. The front
then lifts to the north Gulf Coast by Friday morning as the low
tracks north near Bristol Bay and continues to strengthen. The
combination of these actions will allow for another round of
heavy precipitation to develop across the Southcentral coast as
well as strong easterly winds. For the northern Gulf, the winds
will manifest in the form of a storm-force barrier jet for Friday.
Elsewhere, southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will ramp back up,
with the potential for hurricane-force (to 75 mph) gusts Friday
morning as the front approaches the coast and the surface low
reaches its peak strength (lowest pressure) near Cape Newenham.
These gusts are also possible for the Upper Hillside of Anchorage
along with a period of strong northeasterly winds and gusts across
the Matanuska Valley, again due to the orientation of the
pressure gradient as the low tracks across the AKPen.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Today
through Friday night)...

A longwave trough west of the Aleutians will remain nearly
stationary through the next 24 hours. East of the trough and
extending across the Bering into Southwest Alaska, south to
southeasterly flow will continue to bring an influx of moisture
and warmer temperatures into the region. Numerous showers are
noted on radar this morning as a front lifts across the Aleutians
into the Bering. Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough
to keep precipitation falling entirely as rain while the front
eventually lifts further north and out of the Bering. For interior
Southwest, the highest rainfall will be confined to upslope flow
over the Kuskokwim and Aleutian Mountains though light rainfall
will be possible over much of the region through early Thursday. A
new upper low is forecast to move over the Alaska Peninsula and
into the eastern Bering late Thursday into Friday with renewed
shower chances. Something to keep an eye on will be upper level
temperatures with the next low as some snow may be reintroduced
into the forecast, especially for the higher elevations of the
Alaska Peninsula and also along the Kuskokwim Coast and Nunivak
Island. Any snow accumulations would be light and quickly come to
an end by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 -
Today through Friday night)...

Near-gale to gale force southeasterly winds will be common across
the central and eastern Bering on Wednesday as a front lifts
northward toward the Chukchi Sea through this evening. Plentiful
moisture along and ahead of the front has resulted in numerous
rain showers as southerly flow persists over the Aleutians.
Through the gaps and passes along the Aleutian Chain small craft
to low end gale force winds are forecast to prevail through
through the afternoon hours. Milder conditions are expected to
develop later tonight into much of Thursday as the front departs
the region and weak ridging of high pressure briefly develops over
the Bering. However, a North Pacific low is forecast to pivot
northwestward across the Alaska Peninsula and into the eastern
Bering on Friday, which should see redeveloping showers for the
Pribilofs and eastern Bering, perhaps with a mix of snow as the
low advects some cooler mid-level temperatures over the region.

&&
.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
A strong barrier jet with storm force winds along the Gulf coast
early Friday morning will taper to small craft by Friday night.
Relatively light winds are expected through the rest of the
weekend. Seas 15 to 25 feet Friday morning will subside on
Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday, seas up to 10 feet expected.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:
The passage of a surface low will continue north across Bering
sea will keep southerly flow along the Alaska mainland coast and
west to southwesterly winds through the Aleutians and over most of
the Bering through this weekend. Areas of gales on Friday morning
is expected near Bristol Bay and Cape Newenham, but should
diminish through Saturday morning. Seas to approximately 15 feet
on the Pacific side may subside slightly on Sunday. Bering side,
expect seas to remain near or below 10 feet.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The pattern should slowly become more active as we head into the
weekend. The biggest change in the upper levels will be with
regards to the 300 mb (30,000') jet. For much of the early portion
of the week, the jet has been oriented from the North Pacific into
the southern mainland. As we head towards the end of the week, the
jet will become zonal (west to east) pointing towards the west
coast of the lower 48. This will allow for a subtle, but fairly
significant, change in the pattern. The robust North American
Ridge (typically a stronger feature in the summer) will yield to
this jet. This will allow for a shift in the active storm track to
move further east. Thus, must of the moisture will miss
Southcentral AK and take aim instead on SE AK. A trough will
preside over the Aleutians, which will allow for some colder air
to return to that area. 850 mb temperatures should fall to around
-8C to -10C.

The net effect at the surface for most of the population centers
will be a return to quieter weather with more seasonable (colder)
temperatures. With a trough still established over the Aleutians,
there will remain chances for snow (and rain) showers, especially
across the chain on Sunday. Weaker waves will still be able to
track up the eastern side of the trough from Kodiak towards
Cordova, but none of these systems looks to be as large or dynamic
as we have seen in the early part of this week. A transient ridge
of high pressure will move quickly through the Bering Sea on
Tuesday reinforcing the mostly quiet weather for the southern
mainland. After that, stronger system will start to creep back
over the Western Aleutians as we continue towards mid-week.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory: 101.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119,130,131,138,139,160,165,170,179-181.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
MARINE/LONG TERM...VR/MO