Gale Warning 15, NWS Anchorage, AK

873 
FZAK62 PAFC 181248
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-190200-
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 48N 169E moves to 47N 167E at 975 mb Tue
afternoon. Another 971 mb low near 49N 179E moves to 50N 167E at 
972 mb and merges with the previous 975 mb low to form a 971 mb 
low Tue evening. The low continues moving southwest further into 
the North Pacific through Wed night. Its front stalls across the 
Southern Bering through Wed night.

$$

PKZ411-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft. Freezing spray N of
56N. Rain and snow showers S of 56N.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 to 26 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N. 
Snow and rain S of 56N.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 to 25 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-190200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

880 
FZAK62 PAFC 190045
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-191400-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front across the Bering dissipates by Thu morning. A 971 mb low
at 51N 172E moves to 46N 166E at 990 mb for Thu afternoon. Its 
front extends over the Aleutians through Thu afternoon. A 985 mb 
North Pacific low moves to 48N 168W at 968 mb by Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-191400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow.
.WED...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Freezing spray N of 56N.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-191400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-191400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain with snow
showers.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing
spray N of 55N. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-191400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray N and E of Saint Paul.
.WED...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

698 
FZAK62 PAFC 191300
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-200200-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 49N 163E moves southward and dissipates. Its 
front dips south across the Aleutians and weakens by Thu 
afternoon. A 965 mb North Pacific low Thu morning moves to 55N 
161W at 972 mb by Fri morning. Its front reaches the AKPEN Thu 
afternoon and crosses Bristol Bay Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-200200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

734 
FZAK62 PAFC 200107
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-201345-
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 45N 166W and a 954 mb North Pacific low merge to 
form a 969 mb low near 54N 167W for Fri afternoon. Its front 
extends over the Aleutians through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-201345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ412-201345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-201345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 35 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-201345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
407 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

772 
FZAK62 PAFC 201250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-210215-
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 50N 166W moves to 52N 169W at 968 mb for Fri 
morning and then to 55N 163W at 980 mb Sat morning. Its front 
extends over the Aleutians through Fri afternoon. A 965 mb North 
Pacific low south of the AKPEN on Fri morning races to 60N 167W at
980 mb Sat morning.

$$

PKZ411-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-210215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 18 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

591 
FZAK62 PAFC 210058
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211400-
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 53N 167W merges with a 968 mb North Pacific low 
to form a 971 mb low near 57N 162W Fri afternoon. This low moves to 
63N 170W by Sat afternoon. Its front moves into western Alaska 
through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
358 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.FRI...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

709 
FZAK62 PAFC 211235
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220145-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 53N 167W merges with a 968 mb North Pacific low 
to form a 975 mb low near 58N 160W Fri afternoon. This low moves 
to 64N 176W at 980 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front moves into 
Western Alaska through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming 10 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
7 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.SAT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKST Mon Jan 17 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The weather remains quiet across Southcentral for the time being.
Overnight, mostly low stratus and areas of fog were the main
issues. A weak upper level shortwave in the flow aloft was passing
over the western Alaska Range this morning with mainly high level
clouds out ahead of it. However, it seemed to be doing minimal
impact to what was happening at the low levels with low stratus
and fog as Kenai was at a mile or less much of the night and
Anchorage as well down to as low as a quarter mile this morning.
A strong upper level ridge of high pressure is currently spinning
over the North Pacific along with a corresponding surface low with
its center just south of the Gulf of Alaska. Also of note, is the
upper level shortwave trough that brought the snow to
Southcentral yesterday continues moving off to the southeast
across Southeast Alaska. Gap winds continue through the typical
areas due to the pressure gradient still present. Whittier as of
this writing was still gusting upwards of 40 kts due to the
pressure gradient banked up against the mountains. The Valdez
Narrows area was also gusting up to 27 kts overnight. Other than
that, cooler temperatures have returned with most areas in the
teens and 20s except for the Copper River Basin where there were
single numbers to near zero degrees.

Weather remains fairly quiet across Southwest as the subsidence
side of the aforementioned upper level shortwave passes through.
As a result, nighttime microphysics imagery showed some clearing
of the clouds overnight, though, some low stratus is around for
some locations. Dillingham was one of the areas that had a low
stratus deck overnight. Some flurries or light snow showers were
being observed mostly along the Kuskokwim Delta Coastline this
morning underneath the low stratus across the area. Further
inland, including Bethel was partly to mostly cloudy.
Temperatures across much of Southwest were single numbers
especially where it was clear and teens with 20s on the Alaska
Peninsula.

A rather large 970 mb low pressure system spinning south of the
Aleutians continues to meander in place this morning. Its front
remains draped across the Bering with northeasterly flow north of
it across the northern Bering. This is leading to wave heights
of 20 to as high as 30 feet (Buoy 46070) in some locations due to
the persistence of the flow. Heavy Freezing Spray continues near
the ice edge due to this as cold air comes off the ice. ASCAT
Scatterometer data also confirms high end gale force winds to 45
kts for this area with storm force winds but outside the area of
responsibility. This system also continues to bring unsettled
weather to much of the Aleutians and Bering with Dutch Harbor
observing rain for much of the night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in generally good agreement out through Tuesday
morning before diverging. Models are diverging on an upper level
shortwave trough that will be moving northeastward along the
Alaska Peninsula and then moving over or near Kodiak as it heads
towards the Gulf of Alaska. The NAM keeps the energy with this
upper level shortwave stretched out. The Canadian-NH is doing
something similar to the NAM with stretching the energy but in an
entirely different orientation. The GFS keep a more consolidated
and concentric look with the energy more tightly together. The EC
keeps it an open wave and moves it through Southcentral much
faster. Therefore, end result being model guidance is in a tizzy
on what happens with this wave which will then in turn impact
sensible weather details as to who may see snow and who doesn't
towards mid week. This includes for out across Southwest. Other
than that, model guidance remains in rather good agreement on
another low moving north towards the Western Aleutians taking the
other ones place. Therefore, not much change for this area.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog has settled over the terminal along with the low
ceiling yielding to 1/4 mi visibility and ceiling around 200 ft
placing the terminal at LIFR conditions. The fog and low stratus
is expected to linger around the terminal for much of the
morning. Some guidance does show the fog lifting during the
afternoon/evening with VFR conditions through Tuesday morning.
However, there is high confidence in the fog forecast with low
confidence on when a return to VFR conditions will resume. Best
chance for VFR conditions will be during the afternoon hours
before fog settles back in after sundown. Light and variable
winds are expected to persist throughout the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday night)...

Quiet weather is on tap across Southcentral Alaska today as an
upper level ridge transits the area. Areas of low clouds and fog
will persist, especially across the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the Copper River Basin. The low level atmosphere
has stabilized as indicated by the 12Z Anchorage sounding.
However, it is weakly unstable with shallow inversions. Thus,
this does not look like a scenario where we would expect widespread
dense fog. More likely, there could be some brief and localized
areas of dense fog. The sun should be able to work on the weak
layer of stability, resulting in some diminishing of the areal
extent of fog/stratus this afternoon, before expanding again after
sunset. Elsewhere across the region, expect some sunshine with
seasonable temperatures.

As the ridge slides eastward tonight, expect increasing high clouds
to move up from the south. This will be followed by a series of
weak short-wave troughs. Forecast confidence in the track of these
short-waves is quite low. However, generally expect light snow
spreading northward across the Gulf of Alaska and into
Southcentral Tuesday through Tuesday night. It's difficult to
nail down snow accumulation at this point, but all solutions are
pointing toward little or no accumulation (dusting to one inch)
for inland areas of Southcentral. Kodiak Island and the Gulf coast
will be impacted by a stronger short-wave and surface low moving
up from the northeast Pacific Tuesday and crossing the central
Gulf Wednesday. Expect some light snow accumulation on Kodiak
Island Monday night into Tuesday before precipitation changes to
rain. The eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound areas
would likely then see some snowfall Tuesday through Wednesday.
The low will remain over the Gulf, so forcing generally looks
weak and this looks like a minor snowfall. The upper level short-
waves and surface low look like they will exit eastward Wednesday
night, bringing an end to precipitation across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Tuesday)...

A weakening, stacked low near the Western Aleutians is pushing its
front towards the Southwest. Ahead of the front, fog banks are
advecting inland from the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coasts.
In the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay, plentiful
moisture from recent snowfall is also contributing to valley fog.
The fog should dissipate by late morning to early afternoon as
winds begin to pick up ahead of the front. Cloud cover increases
through Monday, though snow chances remain low until the front
reaches the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay coasts Tuesday
morning. Then, snow will slowly spread inland. Currently, about 1
to 3 inches of snow is forecast through Tuesday, with highest
amounts near the coast and over the Kuskokwim Mountains. Since
snow amounts and winds will remain relatively low, any blowing
snow is expected to have minimal impacts on visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2:
Today through Tuesday)...

Unsettled conditions continue for the Bering and Aleutians as
several lows and fronts impact the region. A weakening, stacked
low near the Western Aleutians is currently pushing its front
across the Central and Eastern Aleutians, bringing rain to
locations such as St. Paul Island and Dutch Harbor. This front
will continue tracking north towards St. Matthew Island and east
into the AKPEN and Southwest, though rain and rain/snow mix
will diminish as the front weakens.

Late Monday night to early Tuesday morning, a compact low enters
from the North Pacific, grazing the Western Aleutians before
overtaking and absorbing the stacked low. Its front stretches
almost parallel to the Western and Central Aleutians, bringing
light to moderate rain over the area through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A North Pacific low will send a front into the
southern Gulf on Thursday with easterly winds up to gale force as
it lifts north towards the North Gulf Coast. A narrow barrier jet
may develop as the front nears the North Gulf Coast. Also, easterly
gale force winds are possible near/along the shore on Friday.
Winds will flip to southerly behind the front for the remainder of
the Gulf on Friday, with seas building up to 20 ft. Confidence is
high for generally benign conditions on Wednesday, with more
uncertainty for the strength and timing of the front on Thursday
and Friday.

Bering Sea:
Expect steady easterly gales across the central/western Bering
Wednesday through Thursday. On Friday, the low will shift
northeast towards the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay as the
Siberian high pressure retreats north into the Chukchi Sea. This
will allow winds to weaken and become more northerly, diminishing by
Friday morning. Forecast confidence is moderate to high through
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)... Uncertainty picks up right away at the start of the
extended range, with the primary model discrepancies stemming from
the interaction between two separate upper level lows. The first
low will start out as a positively-tilted Arctic trough extending
between the North Slope and Seward Peninsula. Most solutions show
the base of this trough close off and become detached from upper
level steering flow, with models struggling with the weak steering
and resulting trajectory for the low’s path through Friday. At
the same time, a deeper and nearly stacked low over the North
Pacific will pivot north into the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula by Friday morning as a new longwave ridge rapidly begins
to take shape upstream over the Gulf and southern mainland.
Models depict varying degrees of phasing between this second low
and the aforementioned low aimlessly drifting into the northern
Bering, and the run-to-run consistency for this interaction is
notably poor. Regardless of how exactly this element of the
pattern plays out, it appears quite likely for a surge of tropical
warmth and moisture to drive north around the developing ridge
into much of Southcentral and Southwest from Friday to Saturday.
This will support increasing potential for periods of snow or
mixed precipitation at the end of the week as temperatures warm to
or perhaps above freezing for inland areas, with heavier amounts
of mainly rain possible along the North Gulf Coast and southern
Alaska Peninsula. Deep southerly flow and above normal
temperatures will likely continue through the end of the weekend
with all models and ensemble means keeping the strong longwave
ridge anchored over the Gulf and up along the AlCan border.
Farther west, another low could lift north into the eastern Bering
on Sunday, bringing gusty winds and more rain/snow to the eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411 412 176 177 178 185.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MF