Wind Advisory 39, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

146 
WWUS73 KABR 051535
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1035 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

SDZ003-015-060300-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Corson-Dewey-
Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel
935 AM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM CDT this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ004>011-016-017-021-060300-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-
Potter-Faulk-Grant-
Including the cities of Herreid, Eureka, Aberdeen, Britton, 
Sisseton, Mobridge, Ipswich, Webster, Gettysburg, Faulkton, 
and Milbank
1035 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KF

106 
WWUS73 KABR 051914
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

SDZ018-019-022-033>037-060315-
/O.EXA.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Spink-Clark-Hamlin-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Including the cities of Redfield, Clark, Hayti, Fort Pierre, 
Onida, Pierre, Highmore, and Miller
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /114 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Spink, Clark, Hamlin, Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde and 
  Hand Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A few
  power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ020-023-060315-
/O.EXA.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Codington-Deuel-
Including the cities of Watertown and Clear Lake
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Codington and Deuel Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-060315-
/O.EXA.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
Including the cities of Wheaton and Ortonville
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Traverse and Big Stone Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A few
  power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ003-015-060315-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Corson-Dewey-
Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel
114 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM CDT this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ004-006-009-010-016-017-060315-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Campbell-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk-
Including the cities of Herreid, Aberdeen, Mobridge, Ipswich, 
Gettysburg, and Faulkton
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Campbell, Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Potter and Faulk 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ005-060315-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
McPherson-
Including the city of Eureka
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...McPherson County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ007-008-011-021-060315-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Grant-
Including the cities of Britton, Sisseton, Webster, and Milbank
214 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Marshall, Roberts, Day and Grant Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KF

694 
WWUS73 KABR 052342
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

SDZ003-015-061145-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Corson-Dewey-
Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel
542 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM CDT this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ004-006-009-010-016>019-022-033>037-061145-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Campbell-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Hamlin-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Including the cities of Herreid, Aberdeen, Mobridge, Ipswich, 
Gettysburg, Faulkton, Redfield, Clark, Hayti, Fort Pierre, Onida,
Pierre, Highmore, and Miller
642 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022 /542 PM MDT Sat Nov 5 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Campbell, Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Potter and Faulk 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ005-061145-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
McPherson-
Including the city of Eureka
642 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...McPherson County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ007-008-011-020-021-023-061145-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Codington-Grant-Deuel-
Including the cities of Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Watertown, 
Milbank, and Clear Lake
642 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Marshall, Roberts, Day and Grant Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-061145-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
Including the cities of Wheaton and Ortonville
642 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Traverse and Big Stone Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

620 
WWUS73 KABR 060850
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
250 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

SDZ003-015-061800-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Corson-Dewey-
Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel
150 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ004-009-016>019-022-033>037-061800-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Campbell-Walworth-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Hamlin-Stanley-Sully-
Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Including the cities of Herreid, Mobridge, Gettysburg, Faulkton, 
Redfield, Clark, Hayti, Fort Pierre, Onida, Pierre, Highmore, 
and Miller
250 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /150 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northeast South 
  Dakota.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ005>008-010-011-020-021-023-061800-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-Codington-Grant-
Deuel-
Including the cities of Eureka, Aberdeen, Britton, Sisseton, 
Ipswich, Webster, Watertown, Milbank, and Clear Lake
250 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...McPherson, Brown, Marshall, Roberts, Edmunds, Day, 
  Codington, Grant and Deuel Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-061800-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.221106T1200Z-221107T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
Including the cities of Wheaton and Ortonville
250 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Traverse and Big Stone Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

LUECK

993 
WWUS73 KABR 061708
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1108 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

SDZ003-015-070000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Corson-Dewey-
Including the cities of McIntosh and Isabel
1008 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...Corson and Dewey Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ004-009-016>019-022-033>037-070000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Campbell-Walworth-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Hamlin-Stanley-Sully-
Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Including the cities of Herreid, Mobridge, Gettysburg, Faulkton, 
Redfield, Clark, Hayti, Fort Pierre, Onida, Pierre, Highmore, 
and Miller
1108 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /1008 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northeast South 
  Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

SDZ005>008-010-011-020-021-023-070000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-Codington-Grant-
Deuel-
Including the cities of Eureka, Aberdeen, Britton, Sisseton, 
Ipswich, Webster, Watertown, Milbank, and Clear Lake
1108 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...McPherson, Brown, Marshall, Roberts, Edmunds, Day, 
  Codington, Grant and Deuel Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-070000-
/O.CON.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
Including the cities of Wheaton and Ortonville
1108 AM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Traverse and Big Stone Counties.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. A 
  few power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KF

341 
WWUS73 KABR 070000
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
600 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-070100-
/O.EXP.KABR.WI.Y.0039.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, McIntosh, Herreid, 
Eureka, Aberdeen, Britton, Sisseton, Mobridge, Ipswich, Webster, 
Isabel, Gettysburg, Faulkton, Redfield, Clark, Watertown, 
Milbank, Hayti, Clear Lake, Fort Pierre, Onida, Pierre, Highmore,
and Miller
600 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022 /500 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022/

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds have diminished below advisory criteria across most of the 
area, though some stronger gusts may persist at higher elevations
for the next couple of hours.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1231 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Confidence is high on a deep low affecting the area bringing windy
conditons this weekend which will lead to elevated fire danger, due
to ongoing dry fuels and drought conditions. ECMWF Ens indicates a
split flow pattern with a deep trough to our south. This will push
northeast Saturday with another trough/closed low in Canada that
will push east into Sunday, affecting the upper Midwest and Northern
Plains. At the surface, a high pressure system is overhead keeping
the area quiet with clear skies and light winds tonight. This will
lead to radiational cooling with chilly temperatures expected.
Overnight lows, especially across the James River Valley, will dip
into the upper teens. Otherwise, temps will range from the lower-mid
20s overnight across the CWA.

As we head into Saturday, as mentioned above, this 522mb closed low
at 500mb and its surface low pressure system will move across
Canada. By 12Z, this low's pressure will be around 979mb and just
north of Montana. According to NAEFS, the MSLP of this low (and
500mb low) will be lower than the lowest pressure in CFSR
climatology! With this low pushing through,the deterministic models
agree on the low occluding between Saturday afternoon and evening.
Clouds will be on the increase and pressure gradients will steepen,
leading to gusty winds. This will start mainly Saturday afternoon in
Dewey/Corson counties (as the cold front is forecasted to push
though at this time.) The gusty winds along with MinRH values in the
mid 30%, will lead to elevated fire danger across this area. The
cold front is forecasted to be east of our CWA by Saturday
night/early Sunday with a LLJ moving into the area early Sunday
morning helping wind gusts reach up to 35kts by 06Z, west of the
Missouri River. 4.1 NBM Prob of wind gusts> 34 is 80-92% in Corson
and Dewey counties. Otherwise, 60-70% of gusts over 34 kts for the
other counties west of the James River for Saturday.

Between the warm front and cold front Saturday, winds will be out of
the south/southeast leading to a little bit of a warmup with NBM
temps ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s and overnight lows in
the 30s as winds will turn more westerly. As the front pushes
through, there is 15-40% chance of precipitation in the form of rain
moving west to east, along the front, between 00-12Z Sunday across
the CWA. Southern Dewey county could see a few snowflakes mixed in
with that slight chance of rain overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Key messages:
* Breezy Sunday and Monday, leading to elevated fire weather
  concerns.
* Unsettled weather for the middle of next week, with rain and
  rain/snow, and thunderstorms possible.

The upper air pattern for the long term period features an anomalous
upper trough over the Pacific NW on Monday dropping to the southeast
and into the southwest CONUS by Wednesday and eventually shifting
east into the central CONUS towards the end of next week. There are
some subtle differences in the ensemble clusters for the Day 3-7
period (largely with the timing/amplitude of the trough in the Wed-
Fri period), but the general theme is the same. That will lead to a
more unsettled weather pattern for the area next week, with a low
pressure system moving through during the mid week and then
lingering precipitation opportunities as the upper trough moves
through.

First, an anomalous area of low pressure moving through Saskatchewan
and Manitoba Saturday into Saturday night (mid 970s mb) and when
compared to 3 week model climo for this time of year, it's lower
than historical NAEFS/EC-Ens forecasts. That low will sweep a cold
front east across the area on Saturday night and setup the area for
gusty winds on Sunday as a tight pressure gradient remains between
the low and a high pressure ridge building in. The main push of cold
air advection will be Saturday night, then the area will be under
weak cold or neutral low level temperature advection. But the
combination of the pressure gradient and sunshine (sunniest day of
the long term) will help lead to mixing into the stronger winds
aloft. EC-Ens EFI values are largely highlighting ND as the area of
the greatest wind gusts, but across northern SD, values are between
0.5-0.8 or highlighting an "unusual" wind event during this time of
year. When we've had values around that over the last year, we
usually have an advisory. So based on the current assessment of the
deterministic/ensemble members, expect gusts in the 40 to
potentially 50 mph range over northern SD, highest near the ND
border. Combine these winds with the dead grasses and RH values
falling into the 20-30% range during the afternoon, expect critical
fire weather conditions on Sunday afternoon.

We get a really good push of warm air advection between 850-500mb on
Sunday night into Monday morning over central SD, as the upper ridge
builds ahead of the deepening trough out west. That will lead to an
area of WAA precipitation, falling as snow, that lifts to the north-
northeast. Best chances (20-30%) look to be over north central SD
Monday morning. Amounts look to be fairly light (a few hundredths if
precip occurs), especially with the amount of sub-cloud dry air.
Behind the warm air advection/front, will see gusty (30-45mph)
southeasterly winds develop over central SD on Monday. Will again
see elevated fire weather concerns in that area, as RH values will
likely fall below 35%.

Shortwave energy and 250mb jet streak eject out of the trough on
Tuesday and led to a surface low developing in the lee of the
central Rockies. At this point, ensemble members aren't showing too
much of a wrapped up low (only a handful of members have a sub 1000s
mb low) and more of an elongated surface trough and weak surface low
in the low 1000s mb. With this elongated surface trough over the
area, there's a significant spread in temperatures on Wednesday in
the ensembles and in turn NBM percentiles. That being said,
depending on where the temperatures turn out with the trough, there
is the potential for some record warm lows on Wed over our eastern
CWA. The latest deterministic NBM lows have KABR/K8D3 right around
record values, but as mentioned above, there's still a ton of
spread, so they could easily be colder.

Will see increasing precipitation potential during the day Tuesday
and then continuing into Wednesday night. There is abundant moisture
with the mid week system, as EC-Ens/NAEFS PWAT percentiles are above
the 90th percentile over most of the area at 00Z Wed, with the
highest percentiles of 99th over eastern SD and MN. ECMWF EFI QPF
output not highlighting too high of values over northeastern SD (75th
percentile for 24hr QPF is around 0.75in), but it is important to
note that the Shift of Tails is around 1 in that same area, so there
are at least 10% of ensemble members that are indicating QPF amounts
between the 90th-99th percentile. That makes sense with the
potential for some convection (can see that in the QPF from
individual members and the upper level flow is running parallel to
the elongated surface trough) Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall,
a low potential, but figured it was worth mentioning with the high
PWAT values. Finally, the GEFS/EC-Ens members are pointing at the
potential for some snow change over over north central SD late Tues
night into Wed morning, along with the possibility for a little bit
of freezing rain during that transition.

As for convection, the general idea is for surface based CAPEs to be
around 250 J/kg range, but we do have some ensemble members having
values above 500 J/kg (10-30% of EC-Ens/GEFS members over the
southeast CWA) and ample shear (over 45 kts). CSU ML Severe
probabilities from the GEFS are still highlighting the Tuesday
period (24hrs ending 12Z Wed) for possible severe weather. They have
decreased from what was seen yesterday and max out at 14% just to
the southeast of our CWA.

Finally, variability in the ensemble members increases for
Thurs/Fri, as there are a variety of solutions on how the upper
trough moves through, and in turn precipitation. With that said, the
potential for light precipitation remains through the end of the
week. The precipitation will gradually shift from rain to snow from
west to east as colder air slowly moves in. The EC/GEFS/GEPS
ensemble probs of 1 inch of snow for the 24hrs ending Fri morning
are 10-30%, with high chances to the north into ND and Canada.
Overall, pretty low chances, but the possibility of enough
snow to cause some minor impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
overnight and through the day Saturday. The exception will be
across parts of the James River Valley where MVFR vsbys due to
smoke are expected overnight. Breezy southerly winds Saturday
afternoon will shift to the west in the evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-050930-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
417 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022 /317 AM MDT Fri Nov 4 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

High to very high grassland fire danger Saturday and Sunday due to
the combination of dry air, dry fuels and increasingly gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LUECK