Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
630 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

The overnight MCV continues to gradually track out of the area this
morning. The overall severe threat continues to diminish with time.
Still monitoring precipitation amounts over the next few hours
however. Portions of the southeast CWA have QPEs running around 2 to
2.5 inches. Flooding threat overall is low, but worth watching.

Attention then turns to the severe weather threat for this
afternoon. Still expecting the development of the potent closed low
system which quickly tracks into the northern plains. A strong jet
rounding the base of the low will help support impressive amounts of
bulk shear. In fact 0-6km bulk shear values are topping out over 70
kts. Which does introduce the question as to whether or not the
shear will be too strong relative to the cold pool to sustain
supercellular storms. ML CAPE values are still progged in the 1000-
2000 J/KG east of the surface trough by the early afternoon hours.
Also impressive low level shear with a southeast to east surface
wind resulting in favorable curved hodographs. Despite strong shear,
current thinking is the overall setup should support supercellular
development, but could also evolve into a line of storms with time.
All severe threats are possible, including tornadoes and the SPC
moderate risk has been expanded to cover more of our northeastern
CWA. This includes a 15% hatched tornado probability. While left
over convective debris could have some influence on instability
today, not currently thinking it will be a deal breaker. With the
strong forcing storms may initiate as soon as 18Z.

The system quickly moves northeast by this evening placing us on the
cool side/right pressure gradient of the low. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are likely and gusty northwest winds are expected,
along with much cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Upper low cut off in southern Canada means more or less zonal
steering flow with some weak troughiness over the area, but for the
most part the result is mostly dry conditions with slightly below
normal temperatures and off and on breezy days - so otherwise it
should be uneventful for much of the remainder of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Low pressure moving up through the area today will generate strong
storms for KABR/KATY with a mix of MVFR CIGS. Weaker convection, and
slightly higher CIGS are expected for KMBG/KPIR. Eventually it looks
like MVFR/potentially IFR CIGS will move in late in the TAF period
as winds come around to the west-northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Serr
SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Serr

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
440 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-310945-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
440 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022 /340 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A significant severe storm threat exists today, especially along and
east of the James River Valley. Storms will likely develop by early
afternoon and pose a severe threat through through mid to late
afternoon. Supercells and all forms of severe weather can be
expected. This includes hail larger than golf balls, winds in excess
of 70 mph and multiple tornadoes. Storms will be moving very fast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed today. Weather spotters are
encouraged to submit reports to the National Weather Service in
Aberdeen. The public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook
page, or our Twitter feed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             3 W HAYTI               44.66N 97.27W
05/30/2022  E0.70 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RADAR ESTIMATED TIME.

&&

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             3 WNW LAKE NORDEN       44.60N 97.26W
05/30/2022  M1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
127 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             HAZEL                   44.76N 97.38W
05/30/2022  M1.00 INCH       HAMLIN             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SD