Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

The main challenge for the short term will be overnight convection.
Sfc low over northeast Colorado will gradually shift into central SD
overnight. A warm front likely located along the NE/SD border will
shift north along with the sfc low overnight. Dewpoints in the 60s
over eastern NE will gradually advect north into eastern SD tonight
contributing to MUCAPES approaching 2k j/kg. For the time being
the atmosphere is likely capped given abundant forecast MLCIN.
However, as LLJ kicks in later this evening, elevated lift is
expected and lapse rates aloft are steep so should see some storms
develop. Main threat from the activity is likely to be hail,
although if any storms form early enough there'll also be a wind
threat. Any tornado threat is probably localized to SW/SC SD just
ahead of sfc low. On Saturday the sfc front edges toward the
eastern border with MN, and this is the most likely area for
convection Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe threat should be
minimal given advancing front will likely push most of the
activity out of the CWA by early evening. Winds will be strong
over SC SD tnt and thus hoisted an advisory for that area to match
up with adjacent offices. Also, over the northeast CWA will have
a wind advisory in effect for especially the Coteau where the
higher elevations will see some pretty good gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

At 12Z Sunday, models are showing the surface low near the
KFAR/northern MN vicinity. By this time, enough cold air will have
wrapped into the area to support snowfall over northern portions of
the CWA, mainly west of the James River. Although, any meaningful
accumulations look to be winding down Sunday morning. Given the
strong winds, any snowfall lingering will cause visibility issues
given the strong winds anticipated on the back side of the low.
Precip looks to be out of the region by Sunday afternoon or evening
as the low continues to move away from the region. Winds will be the
main story on Sunday, with at least advisory level speeds looking
likely over central SD towards the James River. Things get a little
more questionable further east. Still seems potential for high wind
criteria is possible, although we only mix to about 850-800mb across
central SD according to soundings, and 0.5km winds do show a
decrease through the day. More time needed to dive into the details
of wind headlines for Sunday. NBMEXP winds do show gusts over 50
knots though, so something to monitor.

Surface high pressure will pass through the region Monday into
Tuesday, with generally quiet conditions and cool temperatures.
There are still signs of warming temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs rebounding into the 60s for many areas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect a good portion of
the region this evening into the early overnight hours. IFR/MVFR
cigs will remain in place across the north, including at KABR and
KMBG. There will also be periods of MVFR vsbys with the
thunderstorms, as well as the potential for some hail. The
thunderstorm threat will come to an end overnight, then look for
windy conditions and scattered showers during the day Saturday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ Saturday for SDZ033-
     035>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for SDZ006>008-011-
     018>023.

MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ039-046.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-230830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
324 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 /224 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through
tonight. All threats are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

As the storm system moves east through the weekend, north central SD,
specifically Corson county, could experience poor visibility in
strong, gusty winds and falling snow. Other areas will see breezy and
gusty winds increase on Saturday out of the southwest then
strengthen further on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.