Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
958 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms,associated with an MCS,
from Corson through Dewey counties are continuing to push east
this morning. These have a history of producing strong wind gusts,
hail, and brief heavy downpours. These storms are pushing east
and will move into north and central SD through the morning and
afternoon. The main question is if these storms will be able to
hold their severe potental  as they move further east. We have a
very moist low levels, steep lapse rates, and lots of instability
to work with but there is still a cap across parts of eastern SD.
That should be breaking later on this afternoon as more showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the area as well as a
continuing severe weather threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

A mess of weak forcing mechanisms will lead to another couple days
of continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure
sits over the WY/NE border today with a warm front draped near the
SD/NE border. North of that sfc boundary, it becomes more difficult
to pinpoint any particular area for thunderstorms to develop. There
will be a wealth of shortwave energy around, but each model is just
a bit different with timing and placement. Weak low pressure tracks
west to east through ND and south central SD late tonight. These are
all potential areas of development. Given all of the boundaries,
bulk shear will be ample today at 40 to 55kts. There is some capping
given the warm air aloft under the upper ridge, but the NAM has that
breaking this afternoon, especially in the north.

While CAPE will still be abundant on Wednesday, shear will
diminish...though 30 kts in the afternoon may still be enough to
support an isolated severe storm.

For initialization, three CAMS still roll through some thunderstorms
across the north this morning. The HRRR has backed off on storms
until this evening. In other words, confidence is low in timing and
placement. Warm and humid conditions will persist through Wednesday.
Will need to watch storm movement, if and when they do develop, as
any additional heavy rain could prove problematic given antecedent
conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

For the long term period, the upper level ridge pattern continues.
However, around Friday the amplitude starts to decrease and by
Saturday, the axis has flattened quite a bit. On Sunday, the ridge
intensifies again. Sunday overnight the ridge starts to move out of
the area. The EC and GFS show a short lived trough making its way
across the region during the day Monday into Monday night.

Moisture in the mid levels continues to come and go throughout the
period. At the low levels, continuous abundant moisture continues
through Friday night, after this, moisture levels rise and fall
diurnally through the end of the period.

Temperatures look to be around normal but with moisture levels, it
will feel warmer. The next chance of showers and storms is early
Thursday morning. These storms are not expected to be severe at this
time. Chances for evening and overnight showers and storms continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Generally, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
evening. However, some vsby reductions are possible in heavier
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will move near KMBG this morning with
KABR and KPIR possibly seeing storms this afternoon. However,
confidence is low in exact timing and placement of storms later
today. Patchy fog and/or stratus is possible Wednesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060815-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
304 AM CDT Tue Jul 5 2022 /204 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the area today
and tonight. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with strong
gust winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of
the week. Some of the storms on Wednesday and Thursday could be
strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today.

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