Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Made some minor adjustments to hourly pops this evening.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with thunderstorms either
developing or moving into much of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Forecast challenges revolve around severe convective chances this
afternoon through late this evening.

At 2 PM CDT, skies are partly to mostly sunny and temperatures are
warming into the 90s east of the nearly stalled out cold frontal
boundary on stiff south-southwest breezes. West of the front,
winds are out of the northwest and temperatures range from the
low 70s to the upper 80s. The front is positioned currently from
near Fargo North Dakota down to near Ipswich down to near
Chamberlain and on down to around Alliance Nebraska. A periodically
severe storm has been moving north-northeast through Dewey and
Corson counties over the past couple of hours.

The atmosphere is primed for some strong/organized convection.
More than adequate instability and increasingly favorable shear
will support severe thunderstorms by late this afternoon into this
evening. All weather hazard types are possible, although large
hail and damaging winds remain the greatest threats. There have
been more clouds around today than Saturday or Sunday, and this is
likely hampering the warm up today east of the frontal boundary.
That said temperatures across portions of northeast South Dakota
into western Minnesota have still been able to heat up into the
mid to upper 90s, with heat indices beginning to nose up to just
over the century mark. Current heat-related headlines continue,
unchanged into this evening.

Once this front begins to move east tonight, the cooler/drier air
already moving into the western forecast zones will make its way
over into the rest of the CWA, leaving Tuesday through Wednesday
dry days in the forecast, with cooler temperatures closer to
normal expected. The flow pattern aloft is still set to go semi-
zonal through Wednesday night. Then, when the mid-level dirty
ridge starts to build in on Thursday (mid-level WAA), there could
be some elevated convection around heading into Thursday
evening/night. The next cold front that moves through the region
behind this short-lived upper ridging is supposed to come through
sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. And there
could be some convection accompanying that frontal passage. Warmer
temperatures set up on Thursday into Friday prior to the frontal
passage. Then, temperatures cool back down some for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected except in stronger thunderstorms this
evening. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front and
then become breezy out of the west on Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ006>008-018-021.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for SDZ011-019-020-
     022-023-037-051.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...Wise
DISCUSSION...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
413 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-210915-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-
Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
413 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 /313 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota,
central South Dakota, north central South Dakota and northeast
South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect today and
this evening for areas along and east of the James River Valley,
where heat indices will exceed 100 to 105 degrees.

Thunderstorms will develop across central South Dakota late this
afternoon, then will track eastward during the evening hours. Strong
to severe storms are possible, with large hail and strong wind gusts
being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

Parkin

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