Red Flag Warning 13, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Big Stone County, MN, Traverse County, MN, Brown County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Campbell County, SD, Clark County, SD, Codington County, SD, Corson County, SD, Day County, SD, Deuel County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Grant County, SD, Hamlin County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Marshall County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Potter County, SD, Roberts County, SD, Spink County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Walworth County, SD

098 
WWUS83 KABR 122106
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
406 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

SDZ007-008-011-019>023-130515-
/O.CAN.KABR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-221013T0100Z/
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
406 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning for the remainder of today, but it remains in effect
for Thursday.

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Marshall, Roberts, Day, 
  Clark, Codington, Grant, Hamlin and Deuel.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph on
  Thursday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 to 25 percent on Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-130515-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-221013T0100Z/
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
406 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 /306 PM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Corson, Campbell, McPherson, 
  Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Dewey, Potter, Faulk, Spink, 
  Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde, Hand, Jones, Lyman and Buffalo.

* WINDS...Northwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph late this
  afternoon. Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts from 45 to 55
  mph on Thursday.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 to 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-130515-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.A.0008.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
406 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Traverse and Big Stone.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels could result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of west central Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$
TMT

540 
WWUS83 KABR 130109
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022


SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-130915-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-221013T0100Z/
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 /709 PM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... 

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Corson, Campbell, McPherson, 
  Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Dewey, Potter, Faulk, Spink, 
  Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde, Hand, Jones, Lyman and Buffalo.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ007-008-011-019>023-130915-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Marshall, Roberts, Day, 
  Clark, Codington, Grant, Hamlin and Deuel.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-130915-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.A.0008.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
809 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Traverse and Big Stone.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels could result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of west central Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

Parkin

512 
WWUS83 KABR 130753
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

MNZ039-046-131600-
/O.UPG.KABR.FW.A.0008.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong winds and low humidity, which is in effect 
from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch 
is no longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Traverse and Big Stone.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 29 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels could result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of west central Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-131600-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 /153 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Corson, Campbell, McPherson, 
  Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Dewey, Potter, Faulk, Spink, 
  Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde, Hand, Jones, Lyman and Buffalo.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of very strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ007-008-011-019>023-131600-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
253 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Marshall, Roberts, Day, 
  Clark, Codington, Grant, Hamlin and Deuel.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 23 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Dorn

058 
WWUS83 KABR 131541
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1041 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-140000-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
1041 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 /941 AM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Corson, Campbell, McPherson, 
  Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Dewey, Potter, Faulk, Spink, 
  Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde, Hand, Jones, Lyman and Buffalo.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts from 50 to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...15 to 20 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of very strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-140000-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.221013T1700Z-221014T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-
1041 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Minnesota, Traverse and Big Stone. In South 
  Dakota, Marshall, Roberts, Day, Clark, Codington, Grant, 
  Hamlin and Deuel.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 to 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels could result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of west central Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
TMT

117 
WWUS83 KABR 132014
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-021-023-132115-
/O.CAN.KABR.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221014T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Roberts-Grant-Deuel-
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

$$

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-140000-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-
Faulk-Spink-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 /214 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Corson, Campbell, McPherson, 
  Brown, Walworth, Edmunds, Dewey, Potter, Faulk, Spink, 
  Stanley, Sully, Hughes, Hyde, Hand, Jones, Lyman and Buffalo.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts from 45 to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 25 percent, with the lowest humidity
  across central South Dakota.

* IMPACTS...The combination of very strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels will result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of central and northeast 
  South Dakota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

SDZ007-011-019-020-022-140000-
/O.CON.KABR.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221014T0000Z/
Marshall-Day-Clark-Codington-Hamlin-
314 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA FOR STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY...

* AFFECTED AREA...In South Dakota, Marshall, Day, Clark, 
  Codington and Hamlin.

* WINDS...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* IMPACTS...The combination of strong and gusty winds, low 
  humidity, and cured fine fuels could result in critical fire 
  weather conditions over portions of west central Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
TMT

484 
WWUS83 KABR 140004
RFWABR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

SDZ003>007-009>011-015>020-022-033>037-045-048-051-140115-
/O.EXP.KABR.FW.W.0013.000000T0000Z-221014T0000Z/
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-
Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Codington-Hamlin-Stanley-Sully-
Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022 /604 PM MDT Thu Oct 13 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY 
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

Wind speeds have begun to diminish and relative humidity values
have begun to rise, therefore the Red Flag Warning has been
allowed to expire. 

$$

Parkin

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1102 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Winds have increased across the region with many places seeing
advisory speeds currently, mainly over central SD. Will leave the
Wind Advisory in place for today. Will see increasing fire danger
through the afternoon as humidity values drop. Given the winds and
RH expected on Thursday, went ahead and issued a Fire Weather
Watch for tomorrow, and will decide later this afternoon if it
warrants an upgrade, or pass it off to evening/overnight shift
for further evaluation. As for the rest of the forecast, highs
will top out in the 50s to around 60 degrees for most areas. Still
seeing widely scattered sprinkles/showers over the eastern CWA as
shortwave energy moves through the area. Given current/upstream
activity, as well as HRRR output, decided to expand POPs a bit
further west through the CWA and extend a bit longer into the
afternoon. May have to make further adjustments to areal coverage
and timing this afternoon based on radar trends over the next
couple hours as we still have sprinkles/showers moving southeast
across central ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Forecast challenges remain unchanged: strength of winds today and
Thursday, and Fire Weather concerns today and Thursday.

At 2 AM CDT, temperatures were holding in the 40s and 50s on
westerly component 5 to 15 mph winds. Skies at the moment are
clear or mostly clear, but a large batch of mid-clouds are rapidly
approaching the CWA from the northwest. A regional radar mosaic
loop shows there are returns in these approaching clouds, a set-up
being aided by the approach of another 120+ knot upper level jet
streak left-exit region.

So for today, besides the smallish pops for a little bit of
measurable rain potential that have been re-arranged some to better
fit the current regional radar display and the most recent available
blend of models and cam solutions, looking at very strong northwest
winds and gusts redeveloping by late morning across much of the
western half of the CWA, with slightly lesser strong northwest winds
over northeast South Dakota and western Minnesota. Relative humidity
is now progged to drop below 25 percent this afternoon across north
central South Dakota, below 35 percent across much of the rest of
the CWA during peak heating/mixing this afternoon. Expanding the Red
Flag Warning for today all the way to the South Dakota/Minnesota
border.

After winds drop off some overnight tonight, Thursday looks like a
carbon copy of today, with winds speeds being maybe about 10 to 15
mph less, CWA-wide, while some locations over the CWA see relative
humidity values now progged to drop below 20 percent. Despite
temperatures being below 60 degrees over most of the CWA for nearly
the entire day, Thursday remains another prime candidate forecast
period for elevated fire danger. If wind/fire weather headlines did
not already pre-exist for today, Thursday would be in a Fire Weather
Watch. Perhaps one should be issued for Thursday, once today's
headlines fall off the WWA map? Nonetheless, still continuing to
message the Thursday fire weather danger/concerns here via the AFD
and in various partner support products.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

50s and 60s look likely for high temperatures through the period,
with some 40 degree readings early next week over eastern SD and
western MN. The dry weather looks to continue as we remain under a
steady weather pattern with a large 500mb low over the Upper Great
Lakes and Ontario through at least Sunday night. At the surface,
reinforcing cold fronts/surface troughs will move through Friday and
again Saturday night. There will be at least some change as we move
into Monday through Wednesday of next week, with the 500mb low
shifting to the New England States and southwestern Canada. However,
dry weather looks to continue.

Fire weather wise, relative humidity values most afternoons will
fall to between 25 and 35 percent. With no relief to our continued
dry weather, winds will need to be monitored for the potential for
additional periods of elevated fire weather concerns. For example,
we'll have another day of gusty winds out of the northwest on Friday
with highs in the 60s over the southwestern half of the forecast
area. Closer to the 500mb low over northeastern MN, and a wave
rotating in from the north (along with a surface trough, a few more
clouds are anticipated Friday afternoon. Relative humidity values
will also be 5 to 15 percent higher Friday afternoon. This will keep
the elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of the Missouri River
and our southwestern counties. Will continue to highlight fire
weather concerns into Friday. We should get a break Saturday, with
most locations at or above 40 percent relative humidity and lighter
winds than the last few days.

Overall, the north to northwesterly winds should continue until
Monday when a large surface high swings across across the Northern
Plains. The high looks to sink to our south and east Tuesday with
southerly surface winds returning for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period.
Strong and gusty northwest surface winds will persist through the
period as well. Isolated/widely scattered -SHRA moving southeast
across KABR/KATY region this afternoon, with conditions expected
to remain VFR within any -SHRA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ003>007-009>011-
     015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ003>011-
     015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TMT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
451 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

SDZ003-015-033>037-045-048-051-131000-
Corson-Dewey-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
451 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022 /351 AM MDT Wed Oct 12 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect today for strong northwest winds.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today because these strong
northwest winds, combined with dry air and dry fuels, are creating
extreme grassland fire danger today, and fire starts will rapidly
grow and run in today's environment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong northwest winds are expected again on Thursday. Very high to
extreme grassland fire danger is projected for Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ004>007-009>011-016>019-131000-
Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Potter-Faulk-
Spink-Clark-
451 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central South Dakota
and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect today for strong northwest winds.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect today because these strong
northwest winds, combined with dry air and dry fuels, are creating
very high grassland fire danger today, and fire starts will likely
rapidly grow and run in today's environment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong northwest winds are expected again on Thursday. Very high
grassland fire danger is projected for Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ008-020>023-131000-
Roberts-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
451 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Windy northwest winds are in store for the area today. A Red Flag
Warning has been issued for today because these northwest winds,
combined with dry air and dry fuels, are creating very high grassland
fire danger today, and fire starts could rapidly grow and run in
today's environment.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Windy northwest winds are expected again on Thursday. Very high
grassland fire danger is projected for Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-131000-
Traverse-Big Stone-
451 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Breezy to windy northwest winds are in store for the area today,
creating elevated fire danger.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Breezy to windy northwest winds are expected again on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Dorn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1018 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

MNZ039-046-122045-
Traverse-Big Stone-
Including the cities of Wheaton and Ortonville
1018 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

Relative humidity values this afternoon will drop to around 30 to
35 percent with northwesterly winds gusting to around 35 mph
across west central Minnesota. This will result in elevated fire
weather conditions, with any fires that start having the potential
to spread quickly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N GANN VALLEY         44.08N 98.99W
10/12/2022  M60 MPH          BUFFALO            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 201 GANN VALLEY (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
133 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE TIMBER LAKE        45.43N 101.07W
10/12/2022  M60 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 293 TIMBER LAKE (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
134 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TRAIL CITY          45.47N 100.81W
10/12/2022  M59 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 178 TRAIL CITY (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT WED OCT 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E PIERRE REGIONAL AIR 44.38N 100.28W
10/12/2022  M69 MPH          HUGHES             SD   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KPIR PIERRE MUNI AP.

0223 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE TIMBER LAKE        45.43N 101.07W
10/12/2022  M66 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 293 TIMBER LAKE (SDDOT).

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W TRAIL CITY          45.47N 100.81W
10/12/2022  M66 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 178 TRAIL CITY (SDDOT).

0234 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW SUMMIT            45.31N 97.05W
10/12/2022  M64 MPH          ROBERTS            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 55 SUMMIT (SDDOT).

0206 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S BULLHEAD           45.61N 101.06W
10/12/2022  M64 MPH          CORSON             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GRRS2 BULLHEAD 10 S.

0244 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW LEES CORNER       44.08N 99.33W
10/12/2022  M61 MPH          BUFFALO            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 289 LEES CORNER (SDDOT).

0234 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N AGAR                44.90N 100.08W
10/12/2022  M60 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 212 SD RWIS AGAR.

0157 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N PIERRE REGIONAL AIR 44.41N 100.30W
10/12/2022  M60 MPH          HUGHES             SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AV812 PIERRE.

0240 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE RIDGEVIEW          45.09N 100.79W
10/12/2022  M60 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 204 RIDGEVIEW (SDDOT).

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NNW SANSARC          44.67N 101.14W
10/12/2022  M59 MPH          STANLEY            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 168 FOSTER BAY (SDDOT).

0238 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW MOBRIDGE MUNICIPAL 45.55N 100.42W
10/12/2022  M58 MPH          WALWORTH           SD   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KMBG MOBRIDGE MUNI AP.

&&