Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1041 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and generally light breezes
will prevail tonight through Tuesday morning. Into Tuesday evening,
a quick-moving low pressure system will drop into New Mexico,
bringing lowering clouds and some precipitation to the many northern
parts of the state and especially northeastern areas. Winds will
shift northeasterly in northeastern New Mexico just before sunset
Tuesday, with the front advancing farther south and west through the
late evening. Look for widespread LIFR to IFR conditions Tuesday
evening along the Sangre de Cristo mountains and adjacent northeast
highlands and plains where snow will be favored. MVFR conditions will
create a perimeter around this area with lighter and more
intermittent snowfall. Lastly, as the cold front surges westward
through the gaps and canyons within the central mountain chain, gusts
will accelerate to 30 to 40 kt in favored locales, and an Airport
Weather Warning will likely be needed at KABQ.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST Mon Jan 24 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
After a quiet night weatherwise, a strong cold front will surge into
eastern New Mexico Tuesday as the next storm system approaches from
the north. Accumulating snow is anticipated over portions of
northern and eastern New Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches are possible over the Southern
Sangre de Cristo mountains with 4 to 7 inches possible over the
Northeast Highlands and into Harding County. Very cold temperatures
combined with blustery winds and snow will likely lead to travel
impacts across eastern New Mexico. Cold air looks to be reinforced
Thursday with light snow possible over northeast New Mexico as well
as along the central mountain chain. Warmer and drier weather is in
store Friday and over the weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A northeasterly wind
shift has pushed through much of the eastern plains early this
afternoon, though not much cool air has arrived behind it.
Otherwise, just a few clouds have been noted across northern NM. A
quiet night is in store as well with low temperatures near or above
normal.

On Tuesday, an upper level trough will dive southward across the
Great Basin. Models continue to show this feature weakly closing off
and slower to cross NM. Thus, most of the day on Tuesday should be
quiet. However, a backdoor cold front will push into northeast NM by
afternoon, resulting in afternoon temps around 10 degrees cooler
than today. The upper low will be over the Four Corners around
midnight Tuesday night, and will shift east-southeast across NM
through Wednesday, though likely weakening back into a wave. Snow
should develop over northern NM Tuesday afternoon and continue
through Wednesday morning. Of particular concern, is from the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward across Harding County
where a band of moderate to heavy snow looks to develop. This area
will see strong upslope flow, with perhaps a weak influx of low
level Gulf moisture, as well as 850-700mb frontogenesis. All-in-all,
areas along I-25 from Glorieta Pass to Raton, especially around Las
Vegas, could see difficult travel conditions due to snow covered
roads Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for this area, where expected snow amounts are currently
around 4-7" across the lowlands, and 8-12" across the southern
Sangre de Cristo mtns. Lesser snow amounts are expected outside of
this area. In addition to the snow, the aforementioned backdoor
front will also continue to push south and west, through the gaps of
the central mountain chain. By late Tuesday night, a strong gap wind
will be possible in the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metro areas. Gusts
between 35 and 50 mph are possible.

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LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

On Wednesday, model trends have the upper storm system a bit slower
to exit the state but by afternoon most of the precipitation should
be tapering off. Wednesday night will be colder especially for the
west and north. Another system will dive southward through central
and eastern New Mexico on Thursday with a reinforcing shot of cold
air. Models suggest the central mountain chain and far northeast New
Mexico could see light snow Thursday into Thursday evening but
amounts would likely be below advisory levels. Consequently, made
some adjustments to pops and upped winds a bit above guidance to
cover that potential. Highs on Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees
below normal east and near to about 10 degrees below normal central
and west.

Friday will start out very cold, with lows in the single digits and
teens overall, and below zero readings over the northern mountains.
Later in the day, relaxing winds and the beginning of a warming
trend are forecast, although highs remain below normal. Saturday the
region will be under a transient ridge aloft as the warming trend
continues. Models track an upper low from the west into New Mexico
on Sunday, with varied opinions where and if there will be any
precipitation. Painted some meager pops over some of the higher
terrain although the system appears as if it could be rather dry.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions remain on tap through Tuesday, then a storm system
will bring snow to much of northern and eastern NM Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Areas from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward
to the Texas border and north of I-40 have the greatest chance at
wetting precipitation and significant snowfall. As a backdoor cold
front pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain Tuesday
night, strong gap winds are also likely in the Rio Grande Valley.
Temperatures will be below normal area wide on Wednesday, with the
coldest temperatures across eastern NM behind the cold front. After
this storm system exits the state Wednesday afternoon, another will
arrive Thursday afternoon. Additional light snowfall will be
possible across the Northern Mountains southward along the Central
Mountain Chain. Quieter and gradually warming temperatures are in
store for the end of the week.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning
for the following zones... NMZ212-214-215-228-229-231-232.

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