Wind Advisory 35, NWS Albuquerque, NM

911 
WWUS75 KABQ 171717
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1117 AM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022

NMZ223-180100-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-220418T0100Z/
Central Highlands-
1117 AM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Highlands.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

24

312 
WWUS75 KABQ 180033
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
633 PM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022

NMZ223-180145-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-220418T0100Z/
Central Highlands-
633 PM MDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

While breezy winds may persist through the evening, winds will 
continue to decrease. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will be allowed 
to expire.

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1146 PM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
While most of the winds will diminish overnight, a storm system
tracking across northern NM will bring strong upper-level winds
through the area. This will aid in the low-level wind shear at TAF
sites KFMN, KGUP and KABQ as well as keep windy conditions going
across the northern high terrain and east slopes where localized
gusts to 35 to 45 knots will be possible. Mountain wave activity is
also expected. Less wind overall is expected Sunday afternoon, but
typical spring time afternoon winds of 20 to 30 knots will still be
expected. Winds everywhere will diminish Sunday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...907 PM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022...
.UPDATE...
The Wind Advisory for the west central and northwest zones has been
cancelled early as wind gusts have fallen below criteria and that
trend is expected to continue. Strong winds aloft are still expected
to track eastward across northern NM tonight, likely resulting in
windy conditions across mountain tops and potentially the east
slopes. Won't rule out the possibility of Wind Advisory criteria
being met tonight in these areas, but confidence is low and any windy
conditions are expected to be localized. Updated ZFP has been sent.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...236 PM MDT Sat Apr 16 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Conditions remain windy across the higher terrain of northern NM
tonight, with lesser winds expected Sunday. However, it will remain
warm, dry, and windy enough to produce critical fire weather
conditions along the northeast and central highlands Easter
afternoon. While the west remains dry, warm, and breezy/windy, the
eastern plains will see surface Gulf moisture bring a relief in
temperatures and dryness Monday. This advances further west to the
east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon. An
approaching disturbance aloft could initiate a stray isolated
thunderstorm Tuesday along the dry line through eastern NM.
Otherwise, dry weather persists and advances back through eastern NM
Wednesday to the end of the work week. Winds strengthen out of the
southwest Thursday and Friday, with highs climbing into the 80s and
90s for many lower elevations areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A shortwave trough axis will cross northern NM tonight and allow
westerly winds to remain gusty all night across the northern high
terrain. 700mb winds will increase to near 50 kt while veering to the
northwest. Vertical profiles are more favorable for mt wave crashing
after 3am when rogue High Wind gusts are possible near the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts, including the I-25 corridor from
KRTN to KLVS. Areal and temporal coverage is not high enough to
warrant wind highlights at this time. Downslope winds over eastern NM
tonight will trend min temps much warmer than last night.

As if it couldn't get any drier, a reinforcing shot of exceptionally
dry air will enter NM overnight in the wake of the shortwave trough.
This airmass will persist thru Sunday with extremely low humidity on
gusty northwest winds. Max temps will be similar to today across the
west while trending warmer across the east. Fortunately, a break is
in store for wind Sunday night as a weak shortwave ridge crests over
NM. Min temps Sunday night will trend a few degrees cooler with
stronger radiational cooling.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
Monday begins the long term period with southerly return flow
bringing low-level Gulf moisture into the eastern plains. This will
draw temperatures down 5F-10F from Sunday’s forecast. The warming
trend continues through western and central NM with breezy
conditions. The aforementioned low-level Gulf moisture advances west
to the east slopes of the central mountain chain Tuesday morning,
with some model guidance trying to bring it up the Rio Grande Valley
as well. Meanwhile, an upper level speedmax will be approaching from
the west and the GFS is resolving convective initiation from this
along the dry line Tuesday. However, model soundings are indicating a
morning inversion with much drier air mixing the low-level moisture
out through eastern NM. So have kept PoPs notably lower than what the
NBM has through the eastern plains. If any thunderstorms do develop,
they look to be isolated in nature and quick to move east into TX.

Strengthening dry westerlies arrive Wednesday, turning southwesterly
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures continue to hover 10F-15F above
normal. Global models continue to trend slower and/or more north with
an approaching strong Pacific storm system Friday into next weekend.
Very warm, dry, and windy conditions look to precede it Friday with
mid-90s as the forecast high at Roswell, and mid-80s at Albuquerque.
The good news is this system is our first true hope at precipitation
in awhile, but it does look relegated to the northern third of New
Mexico for now with most areas only seeing strong winds.

Guyer/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

A shortwave trough passing thru northern NM will force strong west
to northwest winds over the high terrain tonight. An exceptionally
dry airmass will enter the region in the wake of this shortwave and
keep min RH values below 10% over much of the area Sunday. Northwest
winds will be strongest over the Northeast Highlands where unstable
conditions and above normal temps keep critical fire weather going
into Sunday. Flow aloft will back to the west then southwest Monday
with more strong winds and unstable conditions across central and
eastern NM. The focus for critical fire weather will continue from
the east slopes of the central mt chain into the high plains. A Fire
Weather Watch may be needed for Monday.

Forecast models are showing a surge of Gulf Moisture into eastern NM
Monday night with potential for showers and storms near the TX line
Tuesday morning. Confidence is low on any measurable precip however
recoveries will be excellent over eastern NM with potential stratus.
Unfortunately, a very dry airmass on strong west winds is expected
to spread over the entire region Tuesday afternoon with widespread
critical fire weather. This critical pattern may extend into Tuesday
night and all of Wednesday for a large portion of NM.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ103.

&&