Wind Advisory 26, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Rain showers and high terrain snow will continue moving east across
northern and western NM tonight. Brief MVFR cigs are likely w/ IFR
vsbys possible in the high terrain. Rain and snow will taper off by
18Z across the northern mts as drier, westerly flow arrives. West to
northwest gusts of 25 to 35 kt will be common at most terminals w/
lcl gusts to near 40 kt along I-40 from KCQC to KTCC. A few showers
and storms will attempt to develop aft 18Z over northeast NM as a
back door cold front slides into the area with a north wind shift.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT Thu Mar 31 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of rain and mountain snow showers are in store tonight
through Friday across northern New Mexico. Snow accumulations will be
minimal. The storm system causing the precipitation will also bring
increased winds on Friday afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions are
expected for Saturday, though a few breezes remain likely across the
east. More showers will be possible Sunday night into Monday mainly
across portions of northern New Mexico. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
windy across much of the area with blowing dust a concern once
again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A shortwave trough is on approach from over the Great Basin and will
move east across the southern Rockies and NM overnight through
Friday, bringing a round of showers to northern NM along with breezy
to locally windy conditions. Convection is modeled to ramp-up this
evening across western NM as moisture advection continues and may
even impact this Albuquerque Metro, although measurable rain will
likely be several hundredths of an inch or less. Forcing across the
northern high terrain will trend up overnight, when chances for
showers will peak. A few inches of snow are forecast in the northern
mountains, but except for a couple high peaks will remain below
advisory threshold. Otherwise, rain is forecast at lower elevation
locales. The shortwave trough will eject east out of the Rockies
late Friday morning, sending a backdoor front into the northeast
plains and providing a focus for continued shower development going
into the afternoon hours. Lightning is not expected to be abundant
this evening through tomorrow, but don't be surprised to hear a
rumble of thunder or two. Stronger northwest winds aloft on the
backside of the departing shortwave trough will mix down and create
breezy to locally windy conditions Friday afternoon from near
Farmington southeast toward the east central highlands. A Wind
Advisory may be required for east central highlands. Downslope winds
Friday afternoon will help Roswell poke up into the lower 80s,
offering a decent warm-up from the previous two days. Clearing skies
and light winds will allow for a cooler night Friday.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Zonal flow aloft returns on Saturday, and this should allow a lee
side surface low to develop in the vicinity of the NM/CO/OK border.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will be likely across northeast
and east central NM. High temperatures will also climb back above
normal by 5 to 10 degrees.

On Sunday, a weak and baggy shortwave will approach from the west.
Other than a few breezes, little fanfare is expected during the day,
though a backdoor front will nose into northeast NM. This backdoor
cold front will continue to trek southward through the eastern plains
Sunday night. By Monday morning, the upper level trough will be
crossing the state. Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will be
possible at least across northwest and north central NM. Enough
instability may exist for a few lightning strikes as well. As the
trough shifts eastward across the state, the precipitation will as
well, with a few showers possible across eastern NM by Monday
evening.

More impactful weather is on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong
northwest flow is expected on Tuesday. 7H winds of 45-55kts are
expected. Daytime mixing combined with a 989mb surface low over the
Panhandles will allow for a windy day across the area. It looks like
at least a few zones will likely need a Wind Advisory, and of course,
blowing dust will again be a concern as widespread wetting
precipitation is not expected on Monday. Northwest flow aloft will
remain strong on Wednesday with mixing heights similar, if not
higher. Thus, another round of strong winds are in store, however,
another backdoor cold front will slide into eastern NM on Wednesday
and though it will be breezy behind this front, wind speeds will be
less behind the front then they are across central and western NM.
Much drier air will also filter into the area on Wednesday, with
dewpoint plummeting into the single digits. Once wind speeds
decrease during the evening, temperatures will cool off quickly. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be a bit chilly for early April.
Less wind is in store for Thursday.

34/11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chances for wetting precipitation will trend up this evening and
overnight across northern NM as a shortwave trough moves over the
southern Rockies. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast on
the backside of the trough across the area Friday, but humidity is
not expected to hit critical threshold. Lightning is expected
tonight through Friday, but will be limited. Warming is forecast
through the weekend, with temperatures returning back above normal
areawide. Winds will be the main limiter of potential for critical
fire weather conditions this weekend. A Pacific trough will move
over Monday, bringing cooler and windy conditions with chances for
wetting precipitation that will focus over the northern mountains.
Potential for critical fire weather conditions will trend up next
Tue/Wed as the jet stream dives southeast from the Pacific NW over
the central and southern Rockies, bringing strong northwest flow
aloft to NM. Tuesday may be the more widespread day with a backdoor
front forecast to slide down the eastern plains late Tuesday. Winds
will trend down by Thursday as a building ridge begins to shift east
across the Intermountain West.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&