Wind Advisory 16, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1024 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon with
moderate breezes across the area, especially across the northeast and
east central areas, including KLVS and KTCC. High clouds will
continue to expand across the area this afternoon, but changes are
then in store late tonight and into Friday morning. Across southeast
and east central NM, low-level moisture seeping into the area will
likely lead to the development of low stratus from KCVN to KROW with
MVFR to IFR conditions. Meanwhile, an area of low clouds and light
shower activity looks to move northward through central and western
NM Friday morning. This will result in lowering ceilings for TAF
sites west of the central mountain chain with widespread MVFR
conditions possible. Light rain or drizzle is also expected, but
with poor low-level moisture, virga with gusty winds may be more
common rather than measurable precipitation.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MST Thu Mar 3 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances will bring a chance of rain showers and
mainly mountain snow showers to western and northern areas tonight
through Tuesday. The most widespread precipitation looks to occur
Saturday night and Sunday. The precipitation will generally be light,
except for a few to several inches of snow accumulation in the
northern mountains, especially near the Colorado border. Southwest
and west winds will also become breezy to windy Friday through
Sunday. Humidities should be low enough for fire weather concerns
over southern and eastern areas Friday, then over the east Saturday
and potentially into Sunday.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The upper level ridge of high pressure will start to shift east of
the Rockies today with the flow aloft beginning to turn
southwesterly near and upstream of NM. This will draw in a couple of
perturbations, one this afternoon and a more substantial one
tonight. Look for high cirrus clouds to quickly increase from the
southwest today with gradual top-down moistening late in the
afternoon into tonight. A lee-side surface low will also develop
over southeast CO and northeast NM today with where breezy to
briefly windy conditions will be found this afternoon. Despite the
increased cirrus across the forecast area and eventual
altocumulus/altostratus in southwestern zones, temperatures should
stay well above average today in these anomalously high height
fields.

As an upper low closes in on southern CA, tonight’s perturbation
will lift northeastward ahead of it into NM with light precipitation
now being advertised to spread diffluently into the state overnight.
Have increased POPs with low QPF for tonight with much of the shower
activity likely only producing virga, sprinkles or just a couple
hundredths of an inch, given that we currently have such large
surface dewpoint depressions. There will be an exception to this, as
a moist return flow will start to become better established into
central and parts of west TX and southeast NM tonight. This could
allow low stratus clouds to sneak into eastern Chaves, Roosevelt and
Curry counties early Friday morning.

The fast-moving perturbation aloft will lift northeastward and exit
NM early on Friday with the main upper low moving inland and into
the lower CO river basin by Friday afternoon. This will keep
diffluent southwesterly flow increasing over NM along with
orographics on some northern peaks that should yield some light rain
and snow showers over far north central to northwestern zones.
Temperatures would start to cool a few degrees Friday as pressure
heights start to decrease with the approaching low, but most zones
should still be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Likely the bigger
impact to sensible weather on Friday will come in the form of the
widespread windy conditions as the lee-side surface low deepens more
and aligns a strong surface gradient beneath the strengthening
southwesterlies aloft. Several zones along and south of I-40 and
several northeastern zones could require a wind advisory Friday
afternoon to account for the gusty conditions and potential for
blowing dust.

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LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A series of disturbances rotating through a broad longwave trough
over the western US will continue to bring cooler temperatures area-
wide and a chance for rain and snow showers to northern and western
areas each period Friday night through Tuesday. The most widespread
precipitation looks to occur Saturday night and Sunday. Precipitation
will generally be light, except in the northern mountains including
the Chuska Mountains, where a few to several inches of snow
accumulation will be possible. The potential exists for over a foot
of snow in the mountains near the CO border. There may also be some
thunderstorms in the mix over north central and northwest areas
Sunday and Monday.

The jet stream will linger over southern and eastern areas Friday
night through Sunday. The potential exists for southwest wind gusts
to 60 mph over the south central mountains including Ruidoso Friday
night. Breezy to windy conditions should then return to much of the
forecast area on Saturday with the strongest winds east of the
central mountain chain, where humidities should be low enough for
widespread critical fire weather conditions. On Sunday, breezy to
windy conditions look to favor the area south of I-40, and especially
locations along and east of the south central mountains, where gusts
up to 50 mph will again be possible. The east central plains could
have a final round of critical fire weather conditions on Sunday, if
temperatures don't cool too much below normal there by then.
Temperatures will begin to trend gradually warmer next week, but they
will remain below normal through at least mid week.

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.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

Warmer than normal conditions will hold today, but the tranquility
of the past couple of days will start to fade. Look for breezy to
locally and briefly windy conditions to develop in parts of the
plains of northeastern NM. While wind speeds are not expected to
reach critical levels this afternoon, the very dry conditions within
the above average warmth will heighten fire danger some.

The more dire scenario still appears to unfold Friday and into the
weekend as a powerful one-two punch of weather disturbances hits NM
with stronger winds. Temperatures will still be much warmer than
normal on Friday with widespread critically low humidity over many
southwestern, central and eastern zones where a Fire Weather Watch
remains in effect. Cooler temperatures settling into NM from the
west on Saturday may offer a slight reductions in the areal threat
for critical fire weather, but still many eastern zones appear to be
facing a few to several hours of the risk. Temperatures will cool
more into Sunday as the second low clips northern NM, and this may
limit the critical threat, however much of the southern half of the
forecast area will still have to contend with windy conditions and
low humidity.

After another shift in wind directions along with a reinforcing shot
of cooler air on Monday and Tuesday, wind speeds appear to escalate
again next Wednesday and Thursday, making the first couple weeks of
March live up to the dry and windy expectations that come with La
Nina.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-106>109.

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