Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
The end of July and the first week of August will continue to be very
active with daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially
over western, northern, and central New Mexico. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will be a daily threat, especially over burn scars and
in areas that have recently seen heavy rainfall. High temperatures
will generally be a few degrees on either side of normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
Visible satellite imagery shows robust moisture being transported
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts this afternoon, with
convection firing over the high terrain becoming more widespread.
Can expect activity to move from scattered to numerous in the
afternoon and persist through the evening, thanks in part to a
healthy zone of deformation, where westerly flow aloft across the
northern portion of the state meets with southeasterly flow from the
south. With an above average PWAT of 1.17" on the 12Z sounding,
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall, even with the slightly
increased storm motion. As such, Flash Flood Watch will continue
through 09Z tonight.

Saturday will see a repeat of afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
though a reduction in coverage is anticipated. An adjustment to
motion is expected, with flow aloft shifting to predominantly west-
northwest for a bulk of the CWA. Despite the slight decrease in
activity, storms will still fire in a high moisture environment and
be capable of flash flooding, especially across recent burn scars.
High temperatures will be anywhere from a few to ten degrees below
average almost areawide; the one exception being the southeastern
plains where highs will trend near normal.

High pressure over the Great Basin will morph and reposition
Saturday night, with the centroid attempting to reestablish itself
over New Mexico. Showers and storms will persist into the evening
hours but are not likely to linger in duration or in coverage
compared to previous nights. Overnight lows will trend above average
and a degree to a few degrees warmer than Friday night for most
locales.

12

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
By Sunday, the Four Corners H5 high gradually tracks eastward from UT
to western CO while a secondary high is centered over southern NM.
Between these two high centers, a deformation zone sets up across
northern NM. Along with an abundant amount of moisture, this will all
support additional rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms,
and slow to erratic storm motions will only increase the risk for
flash flooding. By Monday, the two separate high centers are lost
with just one centered over NM and CO. The presence of this high
directly overhead may lead to a relative down day in storm coverage,
but plentiful moisture and very slow storm motions will continue the
flash flooding risk.

A more traditional monsoon pattern then reemerges Tuesday through the
remainder of the week as the H5 high organizes to our east in
response to an upper-level trough carving its way through the
northern Rockies. Thus, a robust monsoon moisture plume remains in
place over the desert southwest, supporting daily rounds of storms
with a continued flash flooding risk.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant monsoon moisture will continue to moderate fire weather
conditions. Daily rounds of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
persist for the next week with the typical hazards to operations.
Slow and erratic storm motions will continue risk for flash
flooding, especially across recent burn scars. Light general winds
will allow terrain to dictate surface flow, with most areas seeing a
transition from overnight downslope/downcanyon winds to
upslope/upcanyon winds in the late morning to early afternoon in
response to daytime heating.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR cigs across eastern terminals expected to lift into the early
afternoon hours. Tstms will initiate aft 18Z over the high terrain,
increasing in coverage to sct-nmrs by afternoon. Any direct hits to
terminals may result in brief reductions to MVFR vsbys. Isold strong
to svr storms will be possible again over ne NM, with hail being the
primary threat. Storm activity will persist well into the night with
MVFR to IFR cigs possible aft 03Z, especially across the central mts
and ewd.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  84  63  89 /  60  50  30  30
Dulce...........................  53  80  53  84 /  80  70  50  60
Cuba............................  57  79  56  83 /  70  70  40  50
Gallup..........................  57  82  56  84 /  60  70  40  50
El Morro........................  55  78  55  78 /  70  80  50  60
Grants..........................  55  80  54  82 /  60  70  50  60
Quemado.........................  56  80  56  81 /  60  80  40  70
Magdalena.......................  60  80  60  82 /  50  60  40  50
Datil...........................  55  78  55  79 /  50  70  50  70
Reserve.........................  56  86  57  87 /  50  70  40  70
Glenwood........................  64  90  63  90 /  50  60  40  60
Chama...........................  50  73  50  77 /  80  80  60  70
Los Alamos......................  58  75  58  78 /  70  70  50  60
Pecos...........................  57  79  58  82 /  70  60  40  60
Cerro/Questa....................  44  74  47  79 /  80  90  50  80
Red River.......................  45  70  46  74 /  80  90  50  80
Angel Fire......................  44  71  44  74 /  80  80  50  80
Taos............................  54  78  53  82 /  80  80  40  80
Mora............................  52  76  53  79 /  70  70  40  70
Espanola........................  61  83  61  87 /  70  70  40  60
Santa Fe........................  58  79  60  83 /  70  60  40  60
Santa Fe Airport................  58  81  58  84 /  70  60  40  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  87  68  88 /  60  50  40  50
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  88  66  90 /  50  40  40  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  90  64  92 /  50  40  40  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  88  66  91 /  60  50  40  40
Belen...........................  65  90  66  92 /  50  40  30  40
Bernalillo......................  64  90  64  93 /  60  50  40  40
Bosque Farms....................  61  89  62  91 /  50  40  40  30
Corrales........................  64  90  66  93 /  60  50  40  40
Los Lunas.......................  63  90  63  91 /  50  40  40  30
Placitas........................  62  85  64  88 /  60  50  40  50
Rio Rancho......................  65  88  66  90 /  60  50  40  40
Socorro.........................  65  92  65  93 /  30  40  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  79  59  81 /  60  50  40  50
Tijeras.........................  59  82  62  85 /  50  50  40  50
Edgewood........................  56  81  58  84 /  50  50  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  83  54  86 /  50  50  40  40
Clines Corners..................  55  80  57  83 /  50  50  40  40
Mountainair.....................  57  82  59  85 /  40  40  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  58  84  60  86 /  40  40  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  64  87  65  90 /  20  50  20  30
Ruidoso.........................  56  78  57  82 /  30  60  20  40
Capulin.........................  55  77  56  81 /  90  80  40  50
Raton...........................  56  81  55  86 /  90  80  40  60
Springer........................  58  82  57  87 /  80  80  40  60
Las Vegas.......................  55  80  56  83 /  80  70  40  60
Clayton.........................  61  84  62  89 /  90  60  40  30
Roy.............................  59  81  60  86 /  80  60  40  50
Conchas.........................  66  92  67  96 /  70  40  30  40
Santa Rosa......................  64  89  65  92 /  50  40  30  40
Tucumcari.......................  67  95  69  98 /  60  20  30  30
Clovis..........................  65  93  68  96 /  40  20  20  20
Portales........................  65  95  69  98 /  40  10  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  68  94  70  98 /  40  20  20  30
Roswell.........................  72  98  72 100 /  20  20  10  20
Picacho.........................  63  89  64  91 /  20  40  20  30
Elk.............................  59  86  61  87 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ201>208-210>218-221>224-226>233-239-241.

&&

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