Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are prevailing across most of northern and central New
Mexico early this evening, however local visibility reductions from
wildfire smoke are ongoing over the northern mountains of the state.
Also, a couple of isolated strong thunderstorms are also ongoing
over east central to northeastern New Mexico, and while these are
producing locally heavy downpours with large hail and gusty downburst
winds, they will be exiting into west Texas around sunset. After
briefly exiting New Mexico, low level moisture is expected to return
to the far eastern tier of the state toward dawn Thursday when
scattered MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible, mainly at KCAO and
KCVN. Elsewhere, breezes will subside after sunset with moderate
gusts redeveloping Thursday afternoon with many locations
occasionally reaching 25 to 35 kt.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will sweep from west to east over New Mexic tonight but
not before a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging winds track over the eastern plains. Storms and moisture
should exit the state into Texas this evening. Critical fire weather
conditions will ease over western and central New Mexico this evening
as well but will return Thursday to the east and south as very dry
weather, warmer than normal temperatures and strong southwest winds
combine. The strongest winds are possible Friday with gusts up to 60
mph over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent highlands
resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions. Breezy to
windy and dry weather persists over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
Observations at mid afternoon suggest the general model trends of
drier air sweeping from west to east over NM through this evening
will pan out. A few gusty showers and storms along and west of the
central mountain chain should diminish by sunset, while a few strong
to severe storms in the eastern plains will continue to track east
and northeast and should move into Texas by mid evening along with
most of the low level moisture. Models suggest some of the low level
moisture may attempt to return into southeast/far east central NM
tonight with a possible round of low clouds setting up over the far
eastern tier of counties. Winds Thursday don't appear to be strong
enough for Wind Advisories at this time, but Friday's winds will need
some highlights, especially along the central mountain chain. Highs
Thursday will be 5-15 degrees warmer than normal. Some cooling is
expected over the west and north Friday but only a couple of degrees
from normal. Friday night lows dip around 5 degrees below average
over the north, but stay above average south.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Moisture will attempt to slosh back and forth over eastern NM
Saturday night/Sunday and again Monday night/Tuesday. There may be
some convective activity near the eastern NM/TX border but models
differ exactly where the dryline will be. Tuesday could be quite
windy and dry but models also differ on the track of a storm system
to our north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong southwest winds will continue to transport drier air over
portions of western and central New Mexico this afternoon. A few dry
showers and storms with gusty winds will persist until around sunset
over central New Mexico while some wetter activity, and even a few
strong to severe storms containing large hail, will be found east of
the central mountain chain. Cell motion will generally be to the
northeast and east.

As moisture is swept eastward and back into Texas, much drier
overnight humidities will result tonight. This will precede very dry
humidities on Thursday as southwest winds strengthen and combine
with high Haines and warmer than normal temperatures. Critical
conditions appear widespread Thursday for all but the Northwest
Plateau and North Central Mountains where elevated to locally
critical conditions are possible. Along and east of I-25 and along
and south of I-40, 5-10 hours of single digit humidities are
forecast.

Thursday night will see overall poor humidity recoveries. Ridgetop
winds start to increase Thursday night in advance of a storm system
forecast to pass north of New Mexico Friday. Critical conditions
area wide are expected to develop rapidly Friday mid morning and
persist through mid Friday evening before easing. West to northwest
wind gusts may reach 55-60 mph especially along and east of the
central mountain chain, and where single digit humidities may
persist for 10-15 hours.

Breezy to windy weather will be combined with very low daytime
humidities for more critical conditions Saturday through Monday,
although areal coverage may not be so widespread as Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105>107-109.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for the following
zones... NMZ103>109.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
435 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

NMZ232-233-272300-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
435 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SAN
MIGUEL AND NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 434 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Conchas, or 28 miles west of Tucumcari, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Conchas and Conchas Lake State Park.

This includes State Road 104 between Mile Markers 63 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3525 10385 3526 10386 3523 10393 3513 10426
      3529 10436 3551 10394 3527 10379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 243DEG 28KT 3525 10423

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>