Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
619 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated severe storms will continue to impact northeast NM though
the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats,
though a tornado is not out of the question. Otherwise, the main
story will be another backdoor front pushing south and west through
the plains tonight into Wednesday morning. Abundant low clouds will
likely develop across the plains behind the front. KTCC will most
likely impacted by MVFR cigs, though KLVS may be impacted as well. On
Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
central NM. Storms may shift eastward with time, though areal
coverage remains questionable, due to persistent low clouds and
limited heating across the eastern plains.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and more moist environment will exist over the eastern
plains in the near term, where chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be focused through Thursday and into Friday and where a few
strong to severe storms are possible each day. There is also
potential for some locally heavy rainfall Wednesday, which may
impact recent burn scars such as Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cooks
Peak. Low level moisture will slosh into the Rio Grande Valley
toward the Continental Divide, where gusty and drier showers and
storms are possible. High temperatures will warm to above normal
Thursday and Friday. The heat will be turned up a notch over the
weekend as near record high temperatures are likely Saturday through
Monday across northern and central New Mexico while chances for rain
dry up. Breezy conditions return Sunday and Monday with potential
for critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDENSDAY NIGHT)... The atmosphere is
destabilizing rapidly across much of eastern NM this afternoon
behind a backdoor front where surface dewpoint temperatures are
currently in the 50s to low 60s. The best coupling of shear and
instability is across far northeast NM, where the SPC currently
shows a slight risk for severe storms and a watch was just issued.
The latest HRRR and HREF peg Colfax, Union and Harding Counties for
storms later this afternoon/evening. Storms are forecast to move off
into the TX/OK Panhandles later this evening and the backdoor front
will progress back to the southwest aided by convective cold pools.
The front is forecast to stall at the central mountain chain by mid
day Wednesday, where convection will initiate and become well-
developed given ample moisture and forcing. Any location along the
central mountain chain and adjacent highlands could see locally
heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon given relatively slow storm
motion and persistent easterly upslope flow, but the main concern is
definitely the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon and Cook's Peak burn scars
where life threatening flash flooding with potential debris flows is
possible. The front, combined with convective outflow, will push
moisture west beyond the RGV late Wednesday and may result in storms
across the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros, though those storms will
be moisture-challenged and more likely to result in a lot of wind
and little measurable rainfall. Gusty east canyon/gap winds into the
RGV and upper Tularosa Valley are likely late Wednesday as well. The
forecast for Wednesday night is more uncertain with regard to
convection as the models are at odds with coverage and maintenance
across eastern NM.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... An upper ridge will be
building over New Mexico Thursday and Friday before starting to
break down Sunday and Monday. Thursday still appears fairly active
with showers and storms stretched from the Gila region northeast
into northeast New Mexico. As the upper high strengthens Friday,
moisture will remain trapped under the high but activity overall
will be less. Moisture may attempt to slosh back into eastern New
Mexico Friday night but models aren't in agreement on this and it
doesn't seem to have much impact by midday Saturday. However, the
upper high may be positioned such that some moisture could sneak up
from the south and this tap may persist Sunday. If there is any
activity as a result it could be drier with gusty winds. By Monday
breezy to windy conditions return. High temperatures Thursday and
Friday recover to above normal values, while highs across the
forecast area look to be near record values at many locales Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A backdoor front will bring moisture and chances for wetting storms
west to the central mountain chain through Thursday with the
potential for burn scar flooding and debris flows. The most
sensitive period for burn scar flooding will be Wednesday
afternoon/evening, when storms will be moving slowly and producing
soaking rains. Meanwhile, western New Mexico will remain hot, mostly
dry and unstable. An upper high will build up over the state
beginning Thursday and lead to a drying/warming trend through the
weekend with hot, dry and unstable conditions areawide. Daily rounds
of storms are forecast from Thursday through the weekend, but with a
gradually shrinking wetting footprint. The upper high will back off
to the south Sunday into Monday as a west coast trough progresses
across the Intermountain West and brings stronger westerlies into
the region. Critical fire weather conditions are looking more likely
for Monday and may continue into Tuesday of next week.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR cigs holding on at KTCC through mid day behind a backdoor front,
but should improve to VFR by 19Z latest. Iso/Sct storms will develop
this afternoon/evening across northeast NM and may impact KLVS with
strong/erratic wind gusts. Much lower probability at KTCC for storms
and too low to include in TAF. The backdoor front will get reinforced
overnight into Wednesday morning and result in more MVFR cigs at
KTCC and possibly KLVS. Mountain obscurations are likely Wednesday
morning along the central mountain chain.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ214-215.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
630 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

NMZ228-231-232-080100-
Eastern San Miguel County-Far Northeast Highlands-Harding County-
630 PM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL, WEST CENTRAL HARDING AND EAST CENTRAL MORA COUNTIES THROUGH
700 PM MDT...

At 630 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Roy, or 21 miles east of Wagon Mound, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 10429 3589 10447 3606 10439 3599 10401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 290DEG 16KT 3595 10433

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
642 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TORNADO          13 NE MAES              35.83N 104.47W
06/07/2022                   MORA               NM   STORM CHASER

            BRIEF, WEAK LANDSPOUT TORNADO BETWEEN 530PM
            AND 535PM OVER OPEN RANGE LAND. NO DAMAGE
            NOTED.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
643 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             MOSQUERO                35.78N 103.96W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       HARDING            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
710 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             1 SSW MOSQUERO          35.76N 103.96W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            LARGEST HAIL QUARTER SIZE.

&&

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
717 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     HAIL             ROY                     35.95N 104.20W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       HARDING            NM   STORM CHASER

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
759 PM MDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             12 ENE BELL RANCH       35.57N 103.88W
06/07/2022  E2.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE DOUBLE PANED PLEXIGLASS SKYLIGHTS
            BROKEN. AUTO WINDSHIELDS ALSO BUSTED.
            SPOTTER SAID THEY WERE THE LARGEST
            HAILSTONES HE HAS SEEN IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.

&&

TRM