Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1119 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR cigs holding on at KTCC through mid day behind a backdoor front,
but should improve to VFR by 19Z latest. Iso/Sct storms will develop
this afternoon/evening across northeast NM and may impact KLVS with
strong/erratic wind gusts. Much lower probability at KTCC for storms
and too low to include in TAF. The backdoor front will get reinforced
overnight into Wednesday morning and result in more MVFR cigs at
KTCC and possibly KLVS. Mountain obscurations are likely Wednesday
morning along the central mountain chain.

11

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.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT Tue Jun 7 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Except for some cooler readings on the far eastern plains Wednesday,
the next 7 days will feature high temperatures a few to several
degrees above normal. Backdoor fronts will enter the forecast area
from the northeast nightly through the end of this week introducing
low level moisture that will enable daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. Storms will favor the central mountain chain eastward
today, then the continental divide eastward Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong to severe storms will be possible across eastern areas each
day, with a gusty and dusty mix of wet and dry storms from the
central mountain chain westward. Thunderstorm coverage looks to
decrease each day Friday through Sunday, but there may still be a few
strong to severe storms over northeast areas Friday and Saturday.
Winds will strengthen Sunday and Monday with a return of fire weather
concerns in many areas.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... As is often the case in
early June, forecast challenges in the short term period will hinge
on the back door cold front and how far west it advances. Currently,
the backdoor front has already invaded much of the northeastern
quadrant of NM with the assistance of convective cold pools farther
northeast, and it should overtake much of the eastern half of the
forecast area before dawn. Fast rises in dewpoints are already
yielding a widespread swath of low stratus and these will be slow to
burn off through the late morning. Once they do burn off, things will
destabilize quickly with scattered thunderstorms still expected to
favor the northeastern quadrant of the state with less coverage along
the central mountain chain and into the east central plains. While
winds aloft will generally be weaker today with rising pressure
heights, the surface front will bring such a stark directional wind
shift that it will drastically increase shear. The SREF continues to
paint high surface-based CAPE values of 1000 to 2500 J/kg across
eastern zones with the highest numbers in the east central plains,
and this will bring a severe threat with large hail and damaging
winds being possible. Farther west, dewpoints will generally stay in
the 20’s, although some pockets of faint increases into the 30’s
are possible between the Rio Grande and the Continental Divide. An
afternoon crop of high- based cumulus is expected, but minimal
instability and vertical development is anticipated. Temperatures
will remain warm to hot in all areas, rising a couple degrees in
western zones and falling a few in eastern ones.

Interestingly, there is not overwhelming model consensus that
convective outflows will shove the moisture farther west tonight.
However, this seems like a plausible scenario, with areas such as
Santa Fe and Albuquerque potentially undergoing a quick shot of
moisture advection should a strong enough easterly wind component be
sustained. Regardless, a secondary frontal push is expected into the
daytime Wednesday when the more moist and cooler air mass will
overtake the central mountain chain and spill into the Rio Grande
valley. This will keep scattered strong to perhaps severe storms
going Wednesday afternoon along the central mountain chain, aided by
an easterly upslope component that will kick-start afternoon
updrafts. Burn scar flooding will be a possibility, and the Flash
Flood Watch will continue. Models suggest a few drier cells will
develop near or just west of the Rio Grande Wednesday, and
convective outflows also look to produce some gusty winds into the
valley late in the afternoon.

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LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
High temperatures will vary from a few to around 11 degrees above
normal through the extended portion of the forecast as our
summertime, mid-level high pressure system varies its position over
the region.

Low level moisture introduced by Wednesday's moist backdoor front
will remain in place from the continental divide eastward with
another round of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms
are forecast from the upper Rio Grande Valley and Tusas Mountains
southwestward to the west central mountains, but convection further
south and east will tend to be more wetting due to PWATs varying
around 0.8-1.03". Shear and instability profiles also indicate the
potential for severe thunderstorms again across the eastern plains
Thursday afternoon and evening, but the risk doesn't look as high as
the severe thunderstorm event expected Wednesday.

The upper high is now forecast by models to recenter near Gallup
Friday, then nudge southward some Saturday. There should be be a
significant downtick in thunderstorm coverage and wetness these days as
drier air works its way over the forecast area from the northwest.
However, low level moisture will slosh back into the eastern plains
with a backdoor cold front Friday morning, and potentially again
into northeast areas and Saturday night, causing the Sangres eastward
to be favored for showers and thunderstorms. The risk of strong to
severe storms will probably return to far northeast areas both
afternoons and evenings as disturbances clip northeast NM in
northwest flow aloft.

Even drier air is forecast to move over the forecast area from the
west on Sunday and moreso Monday as an upper trough entering the
western US nudges the SW US mid-level high southeastward over TX and
eventually the lower Mississippi River Valley. Any storms that get
going over the high terrain Sunday should be vary isolated, then dry
weather is forecast for Monday. Southwest winds look to become breezy
to windy both days with fire weather concerns developing.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist cold front will be the key weather factor to watch over the
next few days, as it will increase the chances for wetting
thunderstorms and bring higher humidity to parts of the forecast
area. The front has already entered the northeastern quadrant of NM
and will overtake much of the remainder of eastern NM through the
morning. The northeast quadrant will be favored for strong to
possibly severe storms today with a few storms also possible along
the central mountain chain and into the east central plains. Dry and
warm conditions will persist today west of the central mountain
chain with temperatures rising a couple more degrees while humidity
plummets to 10 to 15 percent this afternoon. Other than some
moderate breezes in north central NM, wind concerns will be confined
near thunderstorms where gusty and erratic outflows will be possible.

Into tonight and Wednesday, the cooler moist airmass is still
forecast to advance westward with excellent RH recovery in most
eastern zones Wednesday morning. The best moisture will stay east of
the central mountain chain, but a slight increase in dewpoints and
humidity will bring low chances for drier thunderstorms to the Rio
Grande valley toward the Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. Dry
lightning and very gusty storm outflows would be a big concern with
this activity in central to western zones.

A better westward push of the moisture will be possible Wednesday
night, perhaps setting the stage for a mix of wet and dry storms
between the Continental Divide and Rio Grande on Thursday. Dry
thunderstorms would be expected on the western fringe of this
activity while the central mountain chain would continue to observe
isolated to scattered cells of a wetter variety.

By Friday and the weekend, thunderstorms will be reducing in
coverage with smaller footprints of rainfall over mountainous areas.
As high pressure strengthens over NM, temperatures will climb well
above average with hot readings expected. Stronger westerly flow is
still projected to return early next week with drier and perhaps
elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

52

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ214-215.

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