Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
353 PM MDT Mon May 23 2022

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms will be a concern this afternoon through
the late evening across the far eastern plains, with showers and
storms persisting into the overnight hours. The main threats will
be large hail and damaging winds, although a brief tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. An upper level system coupled with a backdoor
cold front will keep the threat for precipitation in the forecast
through Tuesday and Tuesday night across the east. Cooler readings
are anticipated with even snow showers expected over the northern
mountains, with snow levels dropping as low as 9,000 feet. A few
inches of snow can be expected on the mountain peaks with minimal
impacts for the mountain passes. Meanwhile, strong winds and low
humidity will create critical fire weather conditions for Tuesday
afternoon across western and central New Mexico. Quiet weather is
expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, strong winds,
above normal readings and hazardous fire weather conditions will
redevelop for Friday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
Moisture is on the increase across the east this afternoon, and will
continue through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
soon and they could turn severe on the eastern plains through about
midnight. Another upper level disturbance will deepen as it moves
into NM tonight and departs late Tuesday. Showers and a few storms
will continue later tonight, even expanding into the Rio Grande
Valley and western high terrain. It will be cold enough for snow
tonight on the higher mountain peaks of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains. There will be another round of showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday into Tuesday night in the northern mountains and east. Just a
few strong to potentially severe storms on the East Central Plains.
A different story in the west tomorrow as dry, very warm air, and
breezy to windy and unstable conditions will cause critical fire
weather behavior, and a few wind advisories may be needed. Tuesday
will cooler, especially in the east. CHJ

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
Wednesday will favor northwest flow for the entire CWA as the upr
level system shifts eastward. One potential forecast challenge is
whether a deformation band of moisture/pcpn impacts the northeast
quadrant of the state early on Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF
deterministic agree with this possibility, especially if the closed
low departs slower than advertised. Otherwise, it should be rather
quiet for the remainder of the area with just a few afternoon gusts
from the Four Corners into the central highlands, and possibly the
northeast plains closer to the tighter surface pressure gradient.

An upper level ridge will invade the region for Thurs with 500hPa
heights still progged to be around 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations
above normal. High temperatures will respond accordingly with most
areas 5 to 10 degrees above average.

Fast upper level flow will start making its way into the West Coast
on Friday, shifting the ridge east of the CWA by the afternoon. As
this happens, 700hPa winds increase into the 25-35kt range by late
afternoon with weak leeside cyclogenesis in southeast CO/northeast
NM. Based on the latest probabilistic guidance, most locations will
remain below advisory criteria.

Upper level trough will dig southward for the upcoming weekend over
the Pacific and northern Rockies. Winds aloft over NM will further
strengthen and impact a broader chunk of the CWFA. A deeper leeside
surface low will develop in southeast CO (988-991mb), supporting a
tighter surface gradient in the northeast plains. Surface winds are
expected to increase with compressional heating allowing a few sites
in the eastern plains to approach the century mark - which may be at
daily record levels. Longwave trough remains parked over the western
U.S. for Sunday, with much of the moisture and energy staying north
of New Mexico. Latest cluster analysis offers two primary solutions
for the trough on Monday. The majority of the clusters offer a slow
translation eastward, allowing for below normal heights with strong
winds remaining in place. A percentage of GFS and Canadian members
suggest a more progressive translation that allows for above normal
heights migrating back into southwestern U.S. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture is increasing across eastern NM this afternoon and will
continue to do so through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop shortly in the east, and will linger through the night.
Strong to severe storms could impact the eastern plains through
midnight. The west will be dry and cooler tonight with the passage
of a cold front. Another disturbance will approach late tonight and
cross during the day Tuesday, keeping showers and thunderstorms
going in the north and east, with wet snow on the high northern
mountain peaks. But the west will be dry and breezy to windy,
leading to critical fire weather conditions. the Fire Weather Watch
has been Upgraded to a Red Flag Warning Tuesday. We get a break
Wednesday and Thursday with dry and warmer conditions, and not too
much wind. Critical fire weather conditions will be spotty at best,
thanks to a building ridge of high pressure over the state. But
storms passing to our north Friday through the weekend will bring
a return to strong winds, very warm temperatures, breezy to windy
conditions, and an unstable atmosphere will cause concern for
critical fire weather conditions. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a dryline
across eastern NM. Some of these storms may become strong to severe
with frequent lightning, large hail, and damaging winds. Highest
confidence for TAF site impacts will be KTCC and KROW. A backdoor
cold front then begins to move into northeast NM around 00Z,
resulting in a northeasterly wind shift across the plains. This
boundary along with outflow from this afternoon's thunderstorms
should aid in keeping shower and thunderstorm activity continuing
east of the central mountain chain through late this evening and
overnight, including KLVS and KTCC. Otherwise, breezy to windy
conditions develop across west and central NM, and an Airport Weather
Warning is possible for KABQ. Winds mostly diminish tonight. CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  39  73  39  79 /  10   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  32  67  27  76 /  20  20   5   0
Cuba............................  35  65  34  73 /  20  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  32  69  35  79 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  36  65  39  76 /  20   0   0   0
Grants..........................  32  70  33  78 /  20   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  39  69  40  77 /  10   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  71  43  79 /  10   5   0   0
Datil...........................  41  68  40  76 /  10   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  79  35  86 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  85  51  90 /  10   0   0   0
Chama...........................  29  58  25  69 /  20  40  10   0
Los Alamos......................  42  60  40  72 /  30  20  10   0
Pecos...........................  38  62  35  73 /  30  30   5  10
Cerro/Questa....................  34  53  32  66 /  40  60  10   0
Red River.......................  30  50  26  61 /  50  70  20   5
Angel Fire......................  26  48  22  62 /  50  70  10  10
Taos............................  35  58  30  71 /  30  50  10   5
Mora............................  32  55  30  69 /  40  60  10  10
Espanola........................  43  67  40  79 /  30  30  10   0
Santa Fe........................  41  61  39  73 /  30  20   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  39  65  36  75 /  20  20   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  73  45  81 /  20   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  74  43  82 /  20   5   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  76  42  84 /  20   5   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  74  44  82 /  20  10   5   0
Belen...........................  45  77  40  84 /  10   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  45  75  42  84 /  20  10   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  43  76  39  83 /  10   5   0   0
Corrales........................  46  76  42  84 /  20  10   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  76  41  83 /  10   5   0   0
Placitas........................  47  69  44  78 /  20  10   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  46  74  43  82 /  20  10   5   0
Socorro.........................  49  80  46  87 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  64  41  72 /  20  10   5   0
Tijeras.........................  43  68  40  76 /  20  10   5   0
Edgewood........................  40  69  35  77 /  20  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  70  31  77 /  20  10   5   0
Clines Corners..................  37  62  33  71 /  30  20   5   5
Mountainair.....................  41  69  36  75 /  20   5   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  42  70  37  76 /  20   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  75  44  80 /  20   5   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  69  40  73 /  20  10   5   0
Capulin.........................  36  44  32  63 /  70  70  30  10
Raton...........................  38  52  32  70 /  60  70  20  10
Springer........................  41  54  33  71 /  50  70  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  37  55  33  70 /  30  50  10  10
Clayton.........................  43  51  37  68 /  70  60  20  10
Roy.............................  43  55  37  70 /  50  60  20   5
Conchas.........................  48  64  40  75 /  50  50  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  47  65  40  75 /  50  40   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  48  64  41  76 /  70  40  10  10
Clovis..........................  50  65  40  72 /  80  20  10  10
Portales........................  51  70  40  75 /  80  20  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  50  70  41  77 /  60  30  10   5
Roswell.........................  55  79  47  82 /  30  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  48  76  41  78 /  30  10   5   5
Elk.............................  45  78  39  80 /  20  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ101-105-106-109.

&&

40/46