Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and tstms developing along and east of the central
mt chain at 17Z will track rapidly ne and east. Isold strong to
severe storms with large hail and erratic wind gusts to 45-50kts
possible along and east of the Pecos Valley before 28/00Z and before
convection moves into TX. Swly gusts to around 35kts possible over
wrn NM as sharply drier air moves in from the west as a disturbance
passes from west to east over NM. Low level moisture may attempt to
return along and east of a line from KROW to KCVN aft 28/02Z but not
anticipating any low clouds at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 AM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will spread over eastern NM today with a few strong to
severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon. The main threats will
be large hail, damaging winds, lightning strikes, brief heavy rain,
and blowing dust. The rest of central and western NM will see strong
southwest winds with critical fire weather. Very dry conditions will
spread over the entire state Thursday and Friday with critical fire
weather once again. The strongest winds are possible Friday with
gusts up to 65 mph over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent
highlands. A brief break in the wind is expected Saturday before more
strong winds and very dry conditions generate more critical fire
weather Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Hi-resolution Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) continue to break
out scattered showers over far northwest NM around sunrise this
morning, shifting the showers and a few thunderstorms eastward to
north-central areas later this morning into early afternoon. Models
also fire up isolated thunderstorms along and east of the Pecos
River this afternoon, near where a dryline sets up. There is a
marginal risk of strong to severe storms for portions of eastern NM
this afternoon as a result. High temperatures today will range from
a couple of degrees warmer west to 8 to 15 degrees warmer central
and east. Dry air aloft overtakes the forecast area tonight, making
for a dry, mostly sunny, and breezy to locally windy day Thursday.
High temperatures Thursday are forecast to warm several degrees
above today's readings east with a few degrees of cooling forecast
central and west.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Ridge top winds increase Thursday night as the next potent storm
system approaches from the Great Basin. Latest model guidance has
trended stronger with west to northwest winds Friday afternoon over
the northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Current gusts support
the need for a High Wind Watch at some point in the next 24 hrs. Mt
wave activity will strengthen along the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mts where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. Northwest winds
will slowly relax Friday night but widespread breezy conditions will
continue as cooler air moves into the region. Min temps Saturday
morning will be cold again with many areas in the 30s and lower 40s.
A brief break from the wind is expected Saturday afternoon as a weak
shortwave ridge crests quickly east over NM.

Low level return flow is advertised by the 00Z GFS to deepen over
far eastern NM Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an upper low approaches
from the west and spreads much drier west to southwest flow into
central and western NM. A potential dryline scenario unfolds near
the TX border with hefty QPF noted with several storm clusters.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low level Gulf moisture continue to increase from the south and
southeast this morning. This increased moisture will combine with a
weak wave aloft to produce mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms
over far northwest NM this morning, shifting east to north-central
areas during the late morning and early afternoon. As dry air
returns to western and portions of central NM this afternoon,
critical fire weather conditions develop. Isolated thunderstorms are
also forecast to fire from near the Pecos River eastward this
afternoon with a few strong to severe storm possible. The Gulf
moisture will get forced east of the state tonight and Thursday with
dry conditions becoming widespread Thursday. Critical fire weather
conditions are forecast to develop Thursday afternoon along and east
of I-25 and along and south of I-40. Stronger winds and more
widespread critical conditions remain likely all areas on Friday
when a fire weather watch has been issued. Breezy to locally windy
weather will continue into the weekend with more critical conditions
likely.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-105>107-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103>109.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1252 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

NMZ238>240-271915-
Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-Southwest Chaves County-
1252 PM MDT Wed Apr 27 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN
AND WEST CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM MDT...

At 1252 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Elk, or 28 miles northwest of Hope, moving east at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Lincoln and west central Chaves Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 10521 3318 10518 3318 10486 3292 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 277DEG 11KT 3308 10511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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