Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1029 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Though wind speeds continue to decrease across much of the area,
winds are likely to strengthen over the next few hours from KSRR to
KROW as westerly winds aloft increase with a passing shortwave.
Meanwhile, scattered light rain and snow showers are moving across
northern and western NM. Mt obscurations are possible across the
northern mountains, while excursions into MVFR cigs are likely
around KGUP. Winds may be locally enhanced by the precipitation. On
Saturday afternoon, westerly winds will increase areawide once again,
though should not be as strong as today, nor should as much blowing
dust occur.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MST Fri Mar 4 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern through the next week will remain unsettled with
multiple disturbances bringing rounds of cooler temperatures, strong
winds, and precipitation. Strong winds this afternoon will be slow to
taper off and will likely remain breezy to windy through the
overnight hours. A storm system Saturday and Sunday will bring light
precipitation mainly to areas along and north of Interstate 40.
Otherwise, strong winds are expected to continue through the weekend,
especially to areas south of Interstate 40. A cooling trend will
result in below normal temperatures through much of next week while
additional disturbances will bring additional light showers to
portions of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
South to southwest winds have strengthened over NM today with a 45
to 55 kt 700-500mb layer speed max overhead. Blowing dust is evident
on the latest Dust RGB loops and lower vsbys have been reported at a
few obs sites. Winds will likely peak btwn 4pm and 7pm with areas
along and south of I-40 seeing gusts up to 45 kt. The latest RAP and
HRRR solutions show the core of stronger mid and upper level winds
sliding thru southern NM tonight. High winds are likely to continue
at KSRR where a High Wind Warning is in effect. The upper level
storm system responsible for the winds will eject northeastward thru
the Four Corners tonight and allow rain and snow showers to spread
into the northern and western high terrain. The higher snow amounts
will be relegated to SW facing slopes of the Tusas Mts where 2-6" is
likely, except up to 10" possible on high peaks by late morning.

Saturday will feature another round of springs winds as flow aloft
veers westerly ahead of the next upper level storm system. Speeds
trended a tad lighter Saturday however guidance still supports gusts
up to 40 mph along the I-40 corridor over eastern NM. 700-500mb
layer winds will increase again over western NM late Saturday with
cold advection trending max temps several degrees cooler compared to
today. Deeper moisture and better lift will arrive with the second
storm system by Saturday night. A noteworthy lull in snowfall late
Saturday should provide a break for additional Winter Wx Advisories
over the high terrain of northern and western NM beginning Saturday
night.

Guyer

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Unsettled is the word through the remainder of the forecast period as
multiple storm systems bring strong winds and rounds of
precipitation. By Sunday morning, the third system from this
weekend's series will be centered just west of the Four Corners as a
closed H5 low. Moisture advection and diffluent flow ahead of this
low will support additional rain and mountain snow shower development
early Sunday morning across the northwest which spreads eastward
towards the Sangre de Cristos through the late morning hours. Like
the two systems before it, it lifts northeastward through CO. Thus,
precipitation chances remain focused for the northern tier of the
area. Across the south, strong winds will continue to persist as a
potent jet rounding the base of the low bisects the state from the
NM Bootheel northeastward towards the northeast plains. 700mb winds
near 40 knots along and south of I-40 as well as across the eastern
plains will easily mix down to the surface thanks to continued deep
mixing heights. Speeds may be close to advisory criteria, especially
along and east of the Sacramento Mountains. Otherwise, the cooling
trend continues with these passing systems with most locations
expected to record below normal high temperatures. The exception may
be across the southeast plains where high temperatures may be able to
hang on to temps a couple degrees above normal thanks to the
downsloping winds.

A brief break may arrive by Monday morning, but the next system will
be dropping from the northern Rockies, deepening into a closed low
over UT by Monday afternoon. Continued moisture advection and
favorable dynamics ahead of this low will likely support shower
development across the northern tier of the area by Monday afternoon.
Model guidance suggests this system continues to dig into southeast
AZ through Tuesday morning before tracking eastward across the state
through the day on Tuesday. Moisture values aren't impressive with
this system with PWATs forecast below 0.50", but it is the system so
far that lends itself to the best chances for precipitation making it
south of I-40.

Temperatures remain cooler in the wake of this system with
Wednesday's high temperatures remaining below normal areawide. Yet
another system then dives southward from the PacNW starting Wednesday
morning. Increasing flow aloft ahead of it will support strengthening
westerly surface winds with widespread breezy to windy conditions
likely. Models don't deepen this system significantly; instead they
only have it clipping northern NM on Thursday. This will once again
keep any precipitation chances focused across the north, but the jet
rounding its base looks to move overhead, likely resulting in
continued windy conditions through Thursday.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

Widespread critical fire weather conditions today will focus more
into eastern NM by Saturday as cooler air and greater cloud cover
shift into central and western NM. Confidence on critical conditions
Saturday over eastern NM is not high enough to upgrade the Fire Wx
Watch. Haines values have trended low to moderate over most of the
area, with marginal humidities, and subcritical RFTI values. Even
colder air will move into NM Sunday with greater coverage of snow
showers across the north and west. Any lingering critical fire wx
will be focused across the southeast plains. The active pattern will
continue Monday and Tuesday with continued cold temps, strong winds,
and snow showers.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ104-108.

Wind Advisory until 2 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ239-240.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ210.

High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for the following zones...
 NMZ226.

&&