Red Flag Warning 52, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong wly/swly winds already picking up this hour. Gusts are
expected to reach 30-40kts for many terminals during the afternoon,
and have brought up KABQ to AWW threshold from 21Z-01Z. Also added in
6SM BLDU for blowing dust potential at many terminals, will need to
monitor for localized MVFR vis reductions from bldu through the
period. Winds will subside past sunset as the atmosphere decouples.
The leading edge of a backdoor cold front will reach through the
northeastern plains late tonight into Tuesday morning bringing a
nly/nely wind shift from KRTN-KCAO-KTCC-KLVS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT Mon May 30 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong southwest winds and widespread critical fire weather
conditions will continue today. However, high temperatures will be
trending cooler today through mid week. A cold front will initiate a
return of deeper low level moisture to eastern New Mexico starting
Tuesday night, and where the best chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be focused Wednesday through Friday. Some of this
moisture could infiltrate westward towards the Continental Divide,
but may not be enough to produce wetting rainfall. Drier, warmer and
breezy to windy conditions return area wide by the end of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
This Memorial Day will bring more dry and breezy to windy weather.
Winds will be less than Sunday, but still high enough for wind
advisories in north central, east central and northeast NM. Deep
layer mixing of winds to 500mb or a little higher and an 80 knot jet
at 500 mb are responsible for the strong winds. Critical fire weather
concerns will also continue for all the fire weather zones. Highs
continue down some more, but will be pleasantly warm. A back door
cold front will enter northeast NM tonight but dissolve during the
day Tuesday. The only area with cooler temperatures Tuesday will be
the far northeast, while elsewhere highs will be warmer. Winds will
be less than today, with breezy to locally windy conditions, but
below wind advisory speeds. Any critical fire weather will only be in
the Northeast Highlands.

CHJ

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
The most notable change is the farther westward progression of the
cold front on Wednesday which could reach the Continental Divide by
midday Wednesday, as well as a gusty east to southeast wind into the
Rio Grande Valley. The GFS keeps the wind more southerly in the Rio
Grande Valley on Wednesday but the NAM12 and model blends including
the NBM trend towards the east to southeast winds reaching west of
the Valley, which is what is in the grids. Low level moisture will
slop progressively farther west Wednesday and Thursday nights on
gusty east winds before the drier westerly winds drive it back out of
the state, although a bit more slowly on Friday than what models
indicated 24 hours ago. All in all though, the better chances for
showers and storms are still focused along and east of the central
mountain chain. Thursday will be the coolest day over eastern New
Mexico where highs will be 5-15 degrees below normal. Temperatures
rebound Friday but moreso Saturday and Sunday when most locales will
be 5-10 degrees warmer than normal. Southwest to west winds also
increase Saturday and Sunday. A cold front flirts with northeast New
Mexico Sunday but a more substantial push occurs Monday
night/Tuesday, although there are model differences.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS MEMORIAL DAY...

After today, no widespread critical fire weather conditions are
forecast until next weekend in the east.

This Memorial Day will bring more of the same weather, that is, dry
and unstable air with strong winds. Thus, the Red Flag Warnings will
continue as is for all fire weather zones. Highs will be a bit lower
than Sunday, below normal in the west and above normal in the east.
A back door cold front will enter northeast NM tonight but weaken
Tuesday. Winds aloft will lower Tuesday and translate to less wind.
It will remain dry and unstable, but winds should not be strong
enough for widespread critical fire conditions. If there is an area
of critical conditions Tuesday, it will be in the Northeast
Highlands. The back door front will surge south and west Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This will bring cooler and more moist air into
eastern, and likely central areas starting Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will erupt Wednesday on the eastern plains as an upper
level disturbance crosses the state. Moisture will exist across all
of the east Thursday, as well as over the central mountains. By
Friday, enough moisture should be over the Rio Grande Valley for
some showers and hopefully measurable rain. Next weekend should
bring a drying trend and perhaps a return of critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ210-212>216-223-227>233.

&&

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