Red Flag Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Gusty winds have developed over the area, especially in western NM
and this will expand to all other TAF sites within the next hour or
two. Peak gusts may briefly hit AWW criteria at KABQ, but given the
lower probability of persistent 35+ knots, will simply monitor the
risk during the afternoon. A smoke plume is currently traversing the
KLVS site, but expect this plume to shift from a SW-NE trajectory to
more of a S/SW-N/NE direction fairly soon. As a result, expect the
cig (and vis) restrictions to relax. Given the visibility sensor is
not reporting, will place AMD NOT SKED in TAF. Isolated storms will
be possible from 22Z-02Z south of KTCC and east of KROW, but direct
impacts at these sites will be low. Gusty outflows will be possible
across Curry and Roosevelt counties. LLWS is possible from 03Z-11Z
for KLVS, KTCC and KROW, but hi-res models are a tick below the 30-
kt criteria. Opted to forgo mention in TAFs; however, this will be
something to monitor as newer models runs become available. DPorter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022...
.UPDATE...
Have decided to expand the Red Flag Warning into the NMZ101 or the
northwest plateau region due to the potential for one to three hours
of critical fire weather conditions. While this could be technically
below the RFW temporal criteria, it seems prudent to err on the side
of caution given the persistent pattern and unseasonably dry fuels.
The remainder of the forecast package remains on track. Updated RFW
and FWF have been issued. DPorter

&&

.FIRE WEATHER UPDATE...
Added the Middle Rio Grande Valley, North Central Mountains, and West
Central Plateau to today's Red Flag Warning. Coverage of critical
conditions is borderline in each of these zones, but ongoing fires
justify greater caution across west central and north central areas.
Super Haines is also expected in the Middle Rio Grande Valley's urban
corridor late this afternoon and early evening. In addition, locally
critical conditions are expected across the Northwest Plateau today.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...344 AM MDT Tue May 10 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
What a tough weekend for New Mexico with all the high winds,
exceptionally dry air, very warm temperatures and an unstable
atmosphere led to further growth/spread of the continuing large
fires. There will be some changes though as we go through the week.
Low level moisture will arrive in southeast NM today and spread north
and west. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the far
southeast this afternoon or evening. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms will form across the east Wednesday, with storms near
the TX border possibly turning severe. Today and Thursday will be
breezy to windy, but nothing like recent days. Wind advisories have
been issued to today in the northeast and at Gallup. It's a tough
call as to whether the higher dewpoints reach the Hermit's Peak/Calf
Canyon Fire and the cook's Peak Fire Wednesday. A ridge of high
pressure will build in Friday through the weekend with dry and very
warm conditions, and not much wind!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Winds will weaken some today as a low pressure system sagging
gradually southward along the west coast shifts the polar jetstream
mainly north of the Four Corners.  However, ample atmospheric mixing
in well above normal temperatures (including some near record
highs), and a ~989 mb surface low over SE CO, will enable breezy to
windy southwest flow to redevelop. The strongest winds should gust
up to 50 mph from around Las Vegas to Raton Pass and eastward to
Clayton late this afternoon, where we will issue a Wind Advisory
with the morning forecast package. The day shift will need to
monitor Gallup and Roy for potential expansion of the Wind Advisory
to those areas with the mid day NPW update.  In addition to the
wind, another round of single digit humidities will necessitate
another afternoon in the ongoing string of Red Flag Warnings.

Winds are forecast to strengthen further areawide on Wednesday as
the upper low on the west coast begins to eject northeastward across
the Great Basin strengthening the flow aloft over NM.  The potential
exists for gusts to 50 mph across much of northern and western NM
Wednesday afternoon, when another round of near record warmth and
fire weather concerns are expected.

The upper low on the west coast and a ridge of high pressure over
the center of the country will work in consort to draw a moist
return flow of low level moisture northward late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning. There may be a few thunderstorms as early as late
Tuesday afternoon in eastern Roosevelt and Curry Counties, but the
better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come Wednesday east
of a line from Ruidoso to Capulin when the dryline will become
active and begin to march eastward. Dry thunderstorms are expected
over the western high plains with a chance for severe thunderstorms
closer to NM's eastern border.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, will depart far eastern
NM Wednesday evening. It will dry out Thursday with breezy to windy
conditions in the east, creating more critical fire weather
concerns. But Friday through early next week will come under the
influence of a ridge of high pressure slowly moving in from the west.
Dry and very warm weather is expected during this time with not a
lot of wind for a change! High temperatures will be mostly above
normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...THREE MORE DAYS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
THEN A BREAK WITH LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Winds will weaken some today, while remaining breezy to windy, as an
upper level low pressure system sags southward along the west coast
shifting the jet stream mostly to the north of the Four Corners.
Nonetheless a stout surface low over southeast CO and ample
atmospheric mixing in near record high temperatures will result in
gusts to 50 mph from around Las Vegas to Raton and eastward to
Clayton.  Will continue the Red Flag Warning along and east of the
central mountain chain today, and add the Northwest Highlands where
there will be good coverage of critical conditions along and west of
the continental divide and there is also at least one ongoing
wildfire.

Decided to upgrade Wednesday's Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning, since winds will strengthen that day as the west coast low
pressure system begins to eject inland across the Great Basin.
Another round of well above normal and near record warmth is also
expected with Haines of mostly 6.  There will be a dry lightning
risk on Wednesday as a moist low level return flow makes it way
almost as far west as a Ruidoso to Capulin line. Gusty and dry
thunderstorms are expected over the central high plains, with wetter
activity and even some severe storms possible in counties closer to
the eastern NM border.

One more day of critical fire weather conditions is expected mainly
along and east of the central mountain chain on Thursday as the
upper low ejects northeastward across the Rockies keeping brisk flow
aloft over eastern NM, with an accompanying lee side surface trough.
Winds will be much weaker on Thursday though with gusts probably
peaking near 40 mph across the east.

A ridge of high pressure will cross from the west Friday through
this weekend with much lighter winds, although still gusty in the
afternoons.  Humidities will still be bone dry, and high
temperatures will remain well above normal.  Highs may push records
again starting Monday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for the following
zones... NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ227>230.

&&