Red Flag Warning 40, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT Sat May 7 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
As has been the case for the past several days, wildfire smoke will
reduce visibility to MVFR status (3 to 5 miles) with localized
reductions to IFR immediately near wildfires. Blowing dust will be
possible in the late afternoon, but any visibility reductions should
be quite localized. Wind gusts of 25 to 45 kt will be possible
through the afternoon. Surface wind speeds will generally decrease
after sunset, however winds aloft will be strengthening through
Sunday morning with mountain wave activity expected to be strongest
to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains in northeastern parts of
the state. In addition, low level wind shear is expected in many
locations late tonight into early Sunday morning. Stronger winds
aloft will then mix down late Sunday morning with higher gusts and
consequently more blowing dust across the area going into the
afternoon.

52

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.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT Sat May 7 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of strong to damaging winds and critical to
extreme fire weather conditions is expected today through Monday.
Wind speeds are forecast to weaken some Tuesday and Wednesday, while
remaining strong enough for critical fire weather conditions to
return in some areas daily. Some low level moisture is forecast to
work its way over eastern New Mexico with a chance for dryline
thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Winds will
strengthen again Thursday and shunt out any low level moisture.
Temperatures will cool down Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... This weekend will be very
dry, very warm, and very windy. The weak ridge aloft has moved east,
while a storm system has moved into the west, backing winds aloft to
the southwest and strengthening them. There are differences between
the two days. Today will be warmer than Sunday, while winds will be
higher Sunday than today. The one constant will be the extreme
dryness on both days. Wind advisories have been expanded today over
the northwest. High wind watches have been issued Sunday for some of
the western and northern high terrain. Winds tonight will not drop
as much as normally do, but rather hold up in most areas, and will
actually increase in some northern high terrain.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY )...

Mountain top winds will stay strong Sunday night through midday
Monday before tapering down Monday night and Tuesday while becoming
more southerly. This will help low level moisture advance northward
into eastern New Mexico. By Tuesday night but moreso Wednesday,
moisture and instability will be sufficient for some thunderstorms
along and east of the Pecos Valley. Potential for the greatest areal
coverage and chances for rain will be Wednesday night. The upper
trough parked to our west is forecast to eject through the Great
Basin and Colorado Thursday, sweeping out the low level moisture and
chances for storms. Low temperatures Thursday night will be 10-15
degrees cooler and than Wednesday night's and northwest New Mexico
will see lows about 10 degrees below normal.

Another system crosses to our north Friday, sending a cold front
from the north into New Mexico. This system doesn't appear as if it
will bring much if any precipitation to the region although some
higher humidities may result over northeast New Mexico. Highs Friday
will cool down to near or even a few degrees below normal.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...A DANGEROUS, LONG DURATION AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EVENT THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

Widespread and long duration critical to extreme fire weather is
expected today through at least Tuesday with strengthening southwest
winds and historically dry conditions. Today's critical fire weather
will be accompanied by very unstable conditions, highlighted by
widespread Haines of 6, allowing for potentially large smoke plumes
on active fires. Strong southwest and west winds will continue
tonight into Sunday morning over the northern mountains. There are
some indications for high winds with gusts to 50-55kts reaching the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains overnight. This,
despite humidities climbing back above 20%-30%, warrants a
continuation of the Red Flag Warning for the Northeast Highlands all
night tonight through Sunday. Fire weather interests in this area
should stay apprised of the latest forecasts.

Sunday will see more widespread critical to extreme fire behavior,
with stronger winds but slightly lower temperatures than today. We
will keep the Red Flag Warning areawide. Another late end to
critical conditions is expected Sunday evening. Gusts to 30-40kts
will be possible for lower elevation sites, with 40-50kts at higher
elevations. Monday will be another widespread critical fire weather
day with more strong southwest winds and exceptionally dry and
unstable conditions. Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch will continue
for Monday.

More critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday through
the rest of the week, although coverage will likely be less overall.
Low level moisture could make a return to the east Wednesday, ending
the strong of critical fire weather conditions there. Instead, there
will be showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, with strong to severe
storms possible.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-102-104>109.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ101-102-104>109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201>206-210-211-215-216-223-226-228-229.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for the
following zones... NMZ202-205-206-210>216-221-223-224-226>229.

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following zones...
NMZ103.

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