Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1201 PM MDT Tue Apr 19 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Westerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots will be common this afternoon
with areas near and downwind of mountain ranges observing the highest
gust speeds to near 50 kts. Lcl BLDU is possible this afternoon into
the early evening. Surface gusts will decrease somewhat after
sunset, but the speeds aloft will continue to increase, bringing the
likelihood for low level wind shear late tonight. Strongest winds
Wednesday are forecast along/near and south of I-40.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT Tue Apr 19 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of critical fire weather conditions are expected daily for the
rest of the week as winds remain gusty and humidities remain very
low. High temperatures will also remain well above normal through
Friday before cooling this weekend. The strongest west and southwest
winds are forecast today and especially Friday, when many locations
can expect gusts from 40 to 50 mph, except potentially around 60 mph
along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Friday
afternoon. Precipitation chances look to increase in many locations
Saturday night through Sunday night as a cold storm system moves
overhead with rain showers, snow showers, and thunderstorms. Some
fairly widespread freezing temperatures will be possible Saturday
night and Sunday night.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
With surface high pressure established east of NM, return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico is keeping low level moisture pushing
northwestward into the eastern NM zones. Surface dewpoints in the
30’s had already made their way into the eastern plains with higher
readings in the southeast quarter of the state, but readings could
rise several degrees more through the late morning in this south
southeasterly flow. Low clouds are already expanding across eastern
zones, a trend that will continue through the post dawn hours with
some drizzle or sprinkles not out of the question. As a shortwave
trough moves into the Canadian Rockies, the flow aloft over the
western ConUS will increase late today and more-so tonight. Warmer
than average temperatures over most of the forecast area are
expected today with deep vertical mixing and stronger winds will be
transported down to the surface. A lee-side surface low will also
deepen and broaden with low level moisture mixing eastward, much of
it into west TX, but some east central to southeastern zones could
retain 40’s dewpoints into the late afternoon. There will be some
instability present, but likely insufficient to pop a stray
thunderstorm before all the moisture mixes east of NM into the
evening. The boost in wind speeds this afternoon has warranted a
wind advisory for today and many northern zones were included from
yesterday’s issuance.

Winds aloft will increase more tonight, keeping ridge tops and peaks
windy overnight. Into the daytime Wednesday, the aforementioned
Canadian perturbation will be trekking east of the Rockies while a
weaker shortwave moves in tandem over the central Rockies with a
slight reduction in zonal flow over NM. Still, widespread breezy to
windy conditions are anticipated, as temperatures warm a few degrees
more in eastern zones and another surface low regenerates in
northeastern NM. The central mountains and highlands would likely
observe the highest gusts of 45 to 50 mph on Wednesday. Dewpoints
will drop right back into the teens and single digits Wednesday
afternoon as a prolific dry slot aloft continues feeding into the
area.

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LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Wind speeds are forecast to trend weaker overall Thursday, while
remaining gusty and very dry. The strongest southwest winds are
forecast from the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
eastward Thursday afternoon, where/when gusts to 40 mph will again be
possible with more fire weather concerns. High temperatures will
remain around 6 to 16 degrees above normal on Thursday, then some
cooling will begin over western areas Friday.

Friday looks to be the windiest day of the week with gusts
to 50 mph common, except potentially around 60 mph along the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A speed maximum in the
polar jet stream will cross the forecast area from the west Friday
and Friday night, then the tail end of the speed max will linger
over the eastern half of the forecast area on Saturday. There will
also be a 985 mb surface low over eastern CO on Friday, but it is
forecast to weaken and shift eastward by Saturday. With the jet core
crossing aloft, and mechanical mixing provided by a sharp Pacific
cold front, models keep surface winds quite strong through Friday
evening with gusts to 50 mph potentially lingering in many locations
past sunset. Weaker winds are then expected Saturday, but gusts from
40 to 50 mph still look likely along and east of the central valley.
With widespread very low humidity, critical fire weather conditions
are expected areawide Friday, then mainly along and east of the
central valley Saturday. High temperatures will fall a few to
several degrees below normal Saturday from the east slopes of the
central mountain chain westward, while highs remain a few degrees
above normal farther east. With a disturbance passing to our north,
there will be a chance for light rain and snow showers near the CO
border Friday night into Saturday.

A deep upper level trough is now forecast to dig over the forecast
area late Saturday night into Sunday with the potential for
widespread rain showers, snow showers, and thunderstorms. Right now
the NBM is keeping precipitation chances over northern areas, but
recent deterministic model runs (which have yet to be incorporated
into the NBM) indicate precipitation chances will increase over
central areas and potentially southern areas as well. This system
will draw a gusty backdoor cold front into the state providing some
potentially significant low level convergence over central areas
during the period of heaviest precipitation Sunday afternoon and
night. After some fairly widespread freezing temperatures Saturday
night and Sunday night, Monday should bring improving conditions as
the day progresses and the storm system gradually exits eastward.

With a ridge of high pressure crossing, Tuesday should bring warming
temperatures and dry weather. However, a lee-side surface trough
will probably cause south and southwest winds to be gusty along and
east of the central mountain chain.

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.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT LOOMING ON FRIDAY...

Higher dewpoints will struggle to hold over east central NM this
afternoon, and might keep humidity elevated enough to locally
suppress the critical fire weather threat in Curry and Roosevelt
counties. However, the remainder of the forecast area will largely
be inundated by windy, dry and unstable conditions again today, and
the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect. The northern half of the
state will observe the strongest gusts of 40 to 45 mph (20 ft level)
today.

Many central areas of NM will observe poor humidity recoveries of 15
to 25 percent tonight into early Wednesday morning as winds aloft
strengthen more. This will keep breezy to windy conditions going
overnight, although speeds should be reduced from this afternoon’s
speeds in many locations. Tonight’s conditions will help set the
stage for more widespread critical conditions going into the daytime
Wednesday as more unstable conditions redevelop by the afternoon.
The northern tier of NM zones appear to see less wind on Wednesday,
but much of the central corridor of the state will once again
observe gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

A reduction in winds is expected on Thursday before the next
upstream weather disturbance moves close enough to influence NM
weather, but breezy conditions will still be common with localized
critical conditions unfolding, mostly over the northeast highlands
to the far northeastern plains Thursday afternoon.

Attention and concern is growing for a more significant fire weather
event on Friday as a deep trough of low pressure is expected to
cross the intermountain west and overtake the front range of the
Rockies. Confidence is increasing for strong to possibly damaging
winds along with very critically low humidity, warmer than normal
temperatures and high Haines indices of 5 to 6 for Friday afternoon.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201>207-210>212-216-218-222-227>230-233.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103>109.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Wednesday for the following zones...
NMZ213>215-221-223.

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