Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1130 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Westerly winds increasing this past hour at areas along and east of
the central mountain chain, gusting to 35-45kts. This will continue
through mid-afternoon when gust potential should start lessening,
despite deeper layer mixing. As winds aloft decrease, LLWS potential
is also a lower concern tonight along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.
A backdoor cold front will bring a nely then ely wind shift through
the eastern plains beginning this evening and progressing west and
south through the night, reaching KROW and just east of KSRR by the
early morning hours. This boundary will also reach KLVS with wind
speeds looking to stay in the 5-12kt range as directions shift sly by
the early morning hours there. Otherwise, VFR prevails at all
locations through the TAF period.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 AM MDT Fri Apr 15 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds and very dry conditions will lead to fire weather
concerns through Saturday. The strongest winds today will be along
and east of the Central Mountain Chain, but on Saturday, the
strongest winds will be felt across central and western New Mexico.
Less wind is expected for Sunday and Monday, which will also ease
critical fire weather concerns. Unfortunately, widespread windy
conditions will return on Tuesday. Temperatures look to stay at or
above normal through the next week despite a couple of backdoor cold
fronts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Moderate zonal flow aloft continues today and Saturday with breezy
to windy surface winds over much of New Mexico each afternoon. In
between today and Saturday a back door cold front will descend into
eastern NM tonight, with a sudden wind change to the northeast. The
front will come to rest on the east slopes of the central mountain
chain, including Las Vegas and the Hermits Peak Fire, and perhaps
around Ruidoso, including the McBride Fire. Wind speeds in this
corridor should be fairly light, around 10 mph. The wind shift in Las
Vegas will be near or after midnight tonight. The wind shift around
Ruidoso will be more gradual, going from west to southeast Saturday
morning.

Borderline wind advisory speeds are possible today, especially
around Clines Corners, but too small of an area to issue wind
highlights. While the strongest winds today will be over the central
mountains and their east slopes, the strongest winds Saturday will be
across the west and northeast, approaching wind advisory speeds. The
high temperatures will increase again today, rising above normals.
It will be noticeably cooler in the east Saturday behind the front,
while the west remains warm, even a little warmer than today.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
The weak upper level trough will continue to cross NM/CO Saturday
evening. The atmosphere will be slow to decouple, allowing
breeziness to continue at lower elevations and thereby keeping any
moisture return confined to near the OK and TX borders.

Weak ridging is expected over the state on Sunday. Fortunately, this
will keep wind speeds at a more reasonable level than the past week,
but yes, still some breezes likely, especially from the Sangre de
Cristo Mtns to the Central Highlands. Winds will relax Sunday night.
However, a weak backdoor front will push into eastern NM, but
surface winds will quickly veer around to the southeast, which will
allow modest Gulf moisture to return to the eastern plains. By mid
morning Monday, this wind shift should make it to the east slopes of
the Central Mountain Chain, but it looks to at least partially, mix
back eastward during the afternoon Monday. If nothing else, it will
prevent single digit humidity values from occurring across much of
the plains Monday afternoon. Elsewhere, there will still be westerly
breezes to contend with. Gulf moisture will slosh back to the west
Monday night, making it at least to the Central Mountain Chain, if
not barely squeak through to the Rio Grande Valley. Unfortunately, it
will be short-lived. Westerly flow aloft on Tuesday will strengthen
in response to a trough moving over the PacNW. Deep mixing combined
with a deepening surface low over SE CO will allow strong westerly
winds across much of NM. This will mix out the moisture probably to
the Texas border. A stray shower or storm remains possible across the
east central or southeast plains as the moisture mixes eastward, but
confidence is low. That said, winds on Tuesday look to be the
strongest of the week until potentially Friday or Saturday. Flow
aloft relaxes on Wednesday, but continued breeziness is possible and
models are at odds with another backdoor front Thursday.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY...

A moderate west to east flow aloft will continue through Saturday,
then lower some Sunday and Monday, before increasing again Tuesday.
Winds will reach breezy to windy conditions today and Saturday, with
strong gusts. Critical fire weather conditions today will be across
all of the east, while western and central areas will be favored
Saturday for critical fire weather conditions. That's because a back
door cold front will move south through the east tonight, coming to
rest along the east side of the central mountain chain. This will
drop temperatures considerably in the east Saturday, with some
increase in humidity, and less wind. It is a tricky forecast around
the Hermits Peak Fire as west winds today will diminish early
tonight, then shift to the north and northeast late tonight, but with
speeds probably 10 mph or less. Winds will quickly shift to
southwest Saturday morning and increase to windy conditions in the
afternoon. Highs today will climb several more degrees than
yesterday. As mentioned above, the east will be cooler Saturday but
the west will warm up a couple more degrees.

The flow aloft will lessen Sunday and Monday, but strengthen Tuesday
ahead of a west coast upper level disturbance. It will pass to our
north but stronger winds will probably lead to widespread critical
fire weather conditions. The only precipitation in the forecast is
Tuesday across the East Central Plains, as moisture seeps into this
area early next week. A storm could bring showers and thunderstorms
to the east next Friday.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for the following zones... NMZ101>103-105>107-109.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-107-108.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ215-222-223-228-229-231>234.

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