Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1133 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Strong wly flow aloft to persist. Light rain showers or virga
over nrn NM at 05Z to slowly wane through 09Z. Nely wind shift into
ne NM with gusts to around 35kt from KRTN to vcnty KTCC at 05Z will
continue moving south and wwd with short term models suggesting the
boundary will reach the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mts and
extend swd to the KCQC area by 12Z. By 20Z a sfc lee trough
redevelops with swly wind gusts to around 40kt along and east of the
central mt chain as well as along and west of the Contdvd which may
produce lcl vsby restrictions in BLDU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT Sun Apr 10 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong winds and critical fire weather conditions continue Monday.
Winds peaking in strength Monday night through western NM, then along
and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday. Areas of blowing dust
and dangerous crosswinds will be the main impacts Tuesday. Most areas
remain dry with the few showers favoring the far northern mountains
Tuesday. A cold front moving west to east across the forecast area
Tuesday night will bring in colder temperatures, with overnight lows
dropping to or below freezing through the western and northern halves
of the state Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Temperatures and winds
pick back up to end the week Friday and continue through next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
A weak disturbance with some elevated mid-level moisture will
produce virga showers and isolated rain and snow showers from west
central to north central areas this evening, then from the northern
mountains eastward tonight. Little if any accumulation is expected.

Otherwise, warm, dry and windy conditions will continue on Monday.
At this time, southwest wind gusts are expected to peak near 50 mph
Monday afternoon across western areas and in spots along and just
east of the central mountain chain. Speeds will then strengthen
across the west and over the high terrain Monday night as the polar
jet stream begins to move overhead. The potential exists for gusts
to 60 mph in the Chuska Mountains and Gallup Monday night, and
perhaps over the high peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
High winds peak Tuesday afternoon to start the Long Term period as
the core of a 50-60kt H7 jetmax crosses the state, associated with an
upper level trough axis. Deep layer mixing from the surface to above
H7, combined with a deepening surface 980mb MSLP low over KS/NE will
translate these high winds to much of the forecast area. A High Wind
Watch will be hoisted for where the highest confidence for strongest
gusts is, starting in the western high terrain Monday night,
currently in the Short Term period. This expands to the central
mountain chain, central highlands, and northeastern plains by Tuesday
afternoon. Areas of blowing dust, critical fire weather, and even
blowing snow at the higher elevations of the northern mountains are
looking likely. Wind highlights are likely to expand to lower
elevations as we get closer to this event.

The associated Pacific cold front sweeps through Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning, keeping breezy to locally windy conditions
going, but these will be considerably lower in intensity than Tuesday
afternoon. Colder, and much drier (if you could believe) air fills in
behind this front, evident by dewpoints falling to near or below 0F.
This will allow for very efficient radiational cooling bringing many
areas to below freezing through western and northern NM, and near
freezing through the middle Rio Grande Valley and northeastern plains
Wednesday morning. Daytime highs fall below normal areawide
Wednesday, but breezy to windy conditions will remain for one more
day. Thursday morning will likely see the coldest temperatures of the
forecast period as winds decouple entirely and valley inversions
develop with a nice warm up during the day Thursday. Zonal flow takes
hold Friday to end the work week, turning more southwesterly ahead
of an upper level system entering the western CONUS next weekend.

44/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

With an active storm track passing mainly to the north of NM and
repeated surface troughs in the lee of the southern Rockies, areas
of critical fire weather conditions are forecast daily through the
end of the week.  Widespread critical conditions are expected
Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. Of these days, Wednesday appears to
have a somewhat less fire growth risk due to temperatures around 9-
19 degrees below normal and moderating Haines Indices in the 4-5
range.  A disturbance crossing from the west will produce a chance
for light rain and mountain snow showers over the northern mountains
and western areas Tuesday, where there will also be cooler
temperatures and a brief period of minimum humidities climbing above
15 percent. Monday night and Tuesday are forecast to bring the
strongest winds of the week with southwest gusts from 45-65 mph
possible.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ101>109.

High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ202-205-206.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103-104-106>108.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ223>234-240.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for the
following zones... NMZ210-213>215.

&&