Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1151 AM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Strong west to northwest winds will rapidly increase early this
afternoon with daytime mixing. Gusts between 40 and 50 kts will be
common with isolated events exceeding 50kts along and just east of
the Central Mountain Chain, to include KCQC. An Airport Weather
Warning is in effect for the Albuquerque Sunport. These strong winds
combined with antecedent dry conditions will create areas of blowing
dust. MVFR vsbys will be possible. Winds will slowly decrease this
evening but at least breezy conditions will persist overnight in many
areas. Additionally, a back door cold front will slide down the
eastern plains of NM. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front
as well as winds switch around to the northeast. Strong and gusty
winds are expected again Wednesday afternoon across western and
central NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...257 AM MDT Tue Apr 5 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong winds will develop over much of central and northern New
Mexico today. Wind gusts as high as 70 mph are possible in the
mountains with gusts to 60 mph possible in valley locations. Blowing
dust will reduce visibilities at times. Colder conditions are forecast
behind a cold front Wednesday with widespread low temperatures near
to below freezing Thursday and Friday mornings. Quiet weather
returns Friday with more strong wind expected over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
The jet stream is diving southeast from the Pacific NW across the
southern Rockies and will bring strong winds to NM today with areas
of blowing dust, followed by a cold front tonight. Our wind speed
forecast hasn't changed much from the previous forecast cycle and our
existing High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are on track, but will
add Harding County to the advisory where forecast speeds are now
exceeding threshold. Otherwise, today will be warm with above to well
above normal temperatures, especially across the eastern plains due
in part to downslope winds. Winds will be slow to drop off this
evening with cold air advection behind the front, especially across
the central highlands and Sangre De Cristos where the High Wind
Warning will continue until midnight. Cooler conditions are forecast
behind the front overnight, especially across the east central and
northeast plains behind the backdoor segment of the cold front.

Strong northwest flow aloft is forecast Wednesday with less wind,
especially across the eastern plains behind the backdoor front. The
strongest winds on Wednesday will be across central and western NM,
where a Wind Advisory may be required. High temperatures on
Wednesday will be an average 10-20 degrees less than today's and
below normal at most locales. This airmass will be extremely dry,
with PWATs forecast to dip down below 0.10" at KABQ and single digit
humidity across much of the area.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Strong northwest winds begin to relax Wednesday night but models
still keep a stout northwesterly flow aloft over far northwest and
far northeast NM through Thursday morning. Breezy to locally windy
conditons continue Thursday, primarily west of the central mountain
chain. Highest wind speeds will likely be near the Four Corners.
High temperatures Thursday likely remain below average in eastern NM
while central and western locations warm to near average for the
date. Widespread near to below freezing low temperatures are likely
for much of northern and central NM both Thursday and Friday
mornings. Warmer temperatures underneath building high pressure move
in Friday, the least windy day of the next 7 days.

West and southwest winds are forecast to increase over the weekend
thanks to both the Polar and Subtropical jets. Dry condtions continue
through the weekend and into early next week and high temperatures
rise to approximately 10 to 15 degrees F above average for early
April.

A negative Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) appears to take hold
next week with a high amplitude cold/deep upper-level trough
expected toward the middle of week.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL AREAS BELOW SNOWPACK EXCEPT THE NORTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR STRONG WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAl AND WESTERN NM...

The jet stream is diving southeast from the Pacific NW and will
bring strong winds to the southern Rockies and NM today and
Wednesday. The combination of a low humidity, strong winds and
unstable conditions will result in several hours of widespread
critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening
below snowpack. A cold front will follow tonight, with the backdoor
segment resulting in lower wind speeds across the eastern plains on
Wednesday. Strong northwest winds are forecast Wednesday afternoon
across much of western NM and several hours of critical fire weather
conditions are expected, despite cooler temperatures. Winds will
trend down further Thursday with a warming trend that will continue
into the weekend. A critical fire weather pattern will develop over
the weekend and continue into early next week as the jet stream
dives south along the west coast and moves east across the region,
eventually bringing a potent upper level trough across the Desert SW
and into NM. Critical fire weather conditions will likely show up
Saturday afternoon and definitely will on Sunday and Monday. The
timing of the trough, which is uncertain at this time, will
determine whether or not critical fire weather conditions extend
into Tuesday of next week before a strong cold front moves through.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-103>109.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones... NMZ101-105>107-109.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201>207-211-219-222-224-226-227-231-232-234>237-239.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ212>215-223.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ210-216>218-221-228-229-233.

&&

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