Flood Watch 13, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue for
the next 7 days. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any
storm. A short lived but more traditional monsoon pattern may set up
early next week, allowing for cooler high temperatures and greater
chances for rain. The upper high center may retreat to the Great
Basin by the middle of next week, allowing a cold front to move into
New Mexico and sparking more widespread showers and storms next
Wednesday or Thursday.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... After a short
retreat into AZ territory, the Four Corners High will mosey back
towards its namesake tonight. Convection lingering into the evening
will still pose a flash flooding threat, especially across the
Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. As such, continued the Flood
Watch for Flash Flooding for the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristos through to 04Z tonight. Do expect that activity will
diminish rapidly after midnight. Little change is expected as far as
500 mb heights are concerned as the high makes its tour. This will
lead to little relief temperature-wise, with overnight lows still
trending above normal areawide.

The heat will still be very much on moving into Friday, with the
high situating itself over the northwestern plateau. Given the
forecast high of 102F at Farmington, a second round heat advisory is
likely to be warranted in future updates. Elsewhere, temperatures
will still flirt with the triple digits for many locales but most
will manage to stay below the century mark, staying well within the
90s. A similar allocation of moisture is expected, with afternoon
storms firing up across the northern, south central, and
southwestern mts in the early afternoon, becoming scattered in
coverage across the forecast area. The exception to this will be the
northwestern and west central zones, where dry air will continue to
be wrapped around the high, inhibiting precipitation potential.
Given this, did trend down PoPs across the northwest and west
central plateaus. The high will linger and elongate over the Four
Corners on Friday night, leading to another night of toasty, above
normal temperatures.

12

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

Forecast models are hinting that Saturday won't be as active as
Friday, due to the upper high center drifting back over northern New
Mexico/southern Colorado and strengthening slightly. The warmer than
normal temperatures, ranging from about 5-10 degrees, will continue.
The upper high center may shift far enough to the east Sunday to
allow for a disturbance and additional moisture to surge northward
into Arizona and western New Mexico then wrapping around into the
northern part of the state. This pattern persists into Tuesday then
the main upper high reforms over the Great Basin and into the PacNW
and an upper trough dominates the middle and eastern Conus by
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front if forecast to impact New
Mexico by Wednesday or Thursday in this pattern. The main message is
high temperatures will slide down closer to, or even below normal,
by the middle of next week, and chances for rain from showers and
thunderstorms become more widespread.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns will continue to be moderated by the presence
of monsoonal moisture for the majority of the forecast area. Daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. The one exception will
be across FWZ101, where dry air will intrude from the presence of
the high pressure overhead. Minimum RH in this part of the state
will get into the low single digits on Friday into Saturday, with
poor to moderate recovery in between. Elsewhere, continued bouts of
rain is expected through Saturday. Starting next week, the eastern
plains will trend drier than locales across the central mts and
westward. Thunderstorms will continue to pose typical threats to
operations, including gusty and erratic outflow winds and locally
heavy rainfall. The threat for burn scar flash flooding will
continue as persistent high pressure aloft creates slow storm
motions in a high moisture environment.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
High pressure retrograding further west will bring SHRA/TS to the
nrn and sw mts this afternoon, as well as hot temperatures in the 90s
and low 100s. Given relaxed flow aloft, convective activity will
continue to have slow and erratic motion in addition to the typical
hazards of small hail, gusty downburst winds, and locally heavy
rainfall. Prevailing motion will move storms slowly south to
southeast at around 10 kts. Any direct hits to terminals will be
capable of MVFR vsbys due to heavy rain. Convective activity will
persist into the late evening hours before tapering off overnight.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67 102  67 101 /   5  10   5  10
Dulce...........................  55  93  55  95 /  10  40  20  30
Cuba............................  60  92  62  92 /  10  30  20  20
Gallup..........................  60  97  61  97 /  10  20  20  20
El Morro........................  59  90  60  90 /  10  40  20  40
Grants..........................  59  94  61  93 /  10  40  20  30
Quemado.........................  60  91  61  91 /  30  40  20  50
Magdalena.......................  64  91  65  90 /  20  40  20  30
Datil...........................  59  88  60  88 /  30  50  30  40
Reserve.........................  60  95  60  94 /  30  60  30  60
Glenwood........................  66  96  68  95 /  30  60  30  60
Chama...........................  53  85  53  89 /  20  50  20  40
Los Alamos......................  63  88  64  89 /  20  50  20  40
Pecos...........................  60  87  61  89 /  30  60  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  50  85  52  90 /  30  60  20  50
Red River.......................  46  79  50  82 /  30  60  20  60
Angel Fire......................  41  80  48  82 /  30  60  20  50
Taos............................  55  90  57  92 /  20  50  10  40
Mora............................  55  84  56  86 /  30  60  20  40
Espanola........................  63  96  64  96 /  20  30  10  30
Santa Fe........................  63  91  64  91 /  20  50  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  61  93  63  93 /  20  40  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  95  73  94 /  10  40  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  97  72  97 /  10  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  99  70  99 /  10  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  97  71  97 /  10  20  10  20
Belen...........................  68  98  68  99 /  10  20  20  10
Bernalillo......................  67  99  69  99 /  10  30  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  66  98  68  98 /  10  20  10  20
Corrales........................  69  99  70  99 /  10  20  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  67  98  69  98 /  10  20  10  10
Placitas........................  66  96  69  95 /  10  30  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  69  97  70  97 /  10  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  69  99  70  99 /  20  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  89  65  89 /  20  40  20  30
Tijeras.........................  64  91  65  92 /  20  40  20  30
Edgewood........................  60  91  61  91 /  20  40  20  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  57  91  59  93 /  20  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  60  88  61  89 /  20  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  62  90  62  90 /  20  40  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  63  91  62  91 /  20  40  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  92  67  93 /  30  40  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  57  84  60  83 /  40  60  10  20
Capulin.........................  57  88  61  92 /  30  30  10  20
Raton...........................  57  92  59  96 /  20  40  10  20
Springer........................  57  93  61  94 /  30  40  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  57  87  59  90 /  30  50  20  20
Clayton.........................  65  96  69  99 /  50  20  10   5
Roy.............................  61  91  64  94 /  40  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  68  99  71  98 /  40  20  10   5
Santa Rosa......................  66  96  69  98 /  50  30  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  70 100  73 103 /  40  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  68  96  69  97 /  40  20  10   0
Portales........................  69  97  70  98 /  40  20   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  99  71 100 /  50  20  10   0
Roswell.........................  73 100  72 101 /  30  20   5   5
Picacho.........................  66  93  66  94 /  40  30  10  10
Elk.............................  63  88  62  89 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201.

Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ215.

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