Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
304 PM MDT Sat Jul 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will mix with hot
temperatures through the forecast period. The heat is expected to
reach its apex on Monday and Tuesday, with many locales climbing near
or above the century mark. A backdoor front arriving Tuesday will
bring some relief to the heat through the end of the week. Hit and
miss storms will be possible each afternoon, bringing with them the
chance for locally heavy rainfall and subsequent flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough dropping
southeastward over the central Rockies and much of the high terrain
of CO is responding with convective initiation per infrared
satellite imagery. Cells have been much more sparse in NM this
afternoon, but additional initiation will continue over the higher
terrain in northern and western tiers of the state through the
afternoon. By the early evening a few mesoscale cold pools may make
their way off the higher terrain, inducing a few additional cells
through the evening hours. Also this evening, a more substantial
convectively-aided surface boundary is expected to drop out of CO
and into north central to northeastern. While this surface
front/outflow boundary may not trigger much additional convection in
our CWA this evening, it may set the stage for an increase and
expansion of storms into Sunday. The boundary is expected to induce
an easterly wind toward the Glorieta Pass and Tijeras canyon near or
shortly after midnight, leading to gusty overnight winds (20 to 30
mph) at Santa Fe and Albuquerque.

North northeast winds in northeast NM will veer more easterly into
Sunday afternoon while a moist southeasterly return flow sets up
over the remainder of the plains and over most other zones within
the forecast area. This will provide some upslope on the east faces
of the Sangre de Cristos and in the eastern plains where an
increased storm count is expected, but the consensus from modeled
QPF solutions is that most remaining areas may not see much change
from today’s coverage. In fact, a swath of stable air (per lifted
indices and theta-E) is depicted over the south central mountains,
highlands and the lower Rio Grande valley so no storms are
anticipated in these areas Sunday afternoon. The aforementioned
surface boundary arriving out of CO should also provide a couple to
a few degrees of cooling, enough to keep daytime highs from
encroaching upon records or heat advisory criteria Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The long term forecast is off to a piping hot start, with several
locales across the forecast area eyeing triple digit high
temperatures. The Four Corners High wobbles about the Desert
Southwest, strengthening on Monday and Tuesday and flirting ever
closer with reaching 600 dam. The threat of sweltering conditions
will spread westward Monday and Tuesday, where locales along the RGV
may be party to hitting the century mark. Slight relief is expected
by midweek when a backdoor cold front slides down the eastern plains
while the upper high retrogrades west. This will cool things down
somewhat into Friday but temperatures will still remain above normal.

The persisting high pressure, along with recurrent monsoon moisture,
will bring the possibility for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. Convective potential will be enhanced on Tuesday across
northeastern NM thanks to the touring backdoor front. The continued
relaxed flow aloft will aid in the potential for slow and erratic
storm motion, maintaining the risk for flash flooding, especially
across recent burn scars.

52/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The weather pattern will stay aligned with a typical mid-July
monsoon regime with high pressure aloft staying in close proximity
to NM while ebbs and flows of moisture continue fluctuating over the
state. This will keep critical fire weather conditions from
developing over the next several days. Prevailing winds will
generally stay light to moderate outside of an occasional frontal
intrusion and any localized brief thunderstorm outflows. Good to
excellent humidity recovery will be common each night and during the
early morning hours, and scattered footprints of beneficial wetting
rainfall will be observed each afternoon and evening. However, due
to the slow storm motions and sufficiently heavy rainfall rates, the
concerns for wildfire burn scar flash flooding will also continue
with an increased threat for northern scars tomorrow (Sunday) and
also again during much of the latter half of next week.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will take shape again today,
favoring the northern mountains and perhaps secondarily the western
high terrain. Thunderstorms will be very slow-moving and capable of
brief heavy downpours that will temporarily reduce ceilings and
visibility along with the threat of gusty downburst winds, lightning
and small hail. Storms will reduce in coverage significantly through
the late evening. A possible surface boundary could shift winds in
parts of north central to northeastern New Mexico, but any gusts will
likely remain at or below 25 kt and would be strongest immediately
downwind of favored canyons (near KSAF and KABQ). Hot temperatures
and high density altitude readings will create poor performance for
some aircraft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  68  99  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
Dulce...........................  55  92  56  92 /  30  50  30  30
Cuba............................  60  91  60  92 /  20  30  20  10
Gallup..........................  61  94  59  94 /  20  30  30  20
El Morro........................  59  88  58  88 /  20  30  30  30
Grants..........................  60  91  58  91 /  20  30  20  20
Quemado.........................  60  91  59  90 /  20  20  30  30
Magdalena.......................  63  91  63  91 /  10  10   5  10
Datil...........................  58  88  58  88 /  20  20  10  20
Reserve.........................  60  96  59  95 /  20  20  20  30
Glenwood........................  66  99  66  97 /  20  20  20  20
Chama...........................  52  84  53  85 /  30  60  40  30
Los Alamos......................  63  87  64  88 /  20  40  20  20
Pecos...........................  61  87  60  90 /  20  50  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  51  83  52  87 /  40  60  30  40
Red River.......................  45  77  46  81 /  40  70  30  40
Angel Fire......................  44  79  41  82 /  30  70  30  30
Taos............................  55  87  55  90 /  30  60  30  30
Mora............................  55  83  55  86 /  20  60  30  20
Espanola........................  63  94  63  96 /  20  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  63  89  63  93 /  20  40  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  61  93  61  95 /  20  30  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  95  69  95 /  10  20  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  97  71  97 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  99  65 100 /  10  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  97  69  99 /  10  10  10   5
Belen...........................  68  99  69  99 /  10  10   5   5
Bernalillo......................  66  99  67 101 /  20  20  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  63  97  63  98 /  10  10   5   5
Corrales........................  68  99  68 100 /  20  20  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  65  98  65  98 /  10  10   5   5
Placitas........................  65  96  66  97 /  20  20  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  69  97  70  99 /  20  20  10   5
Socorro.........................  67  99  68 100 /  10   5   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  89  61  90 /  10  20  10  10
Tijeras.........................  64  92  64  93 /  10  20  10  10
Edgewood........................  60  91  61  93 /  10  20  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  92  56  93 /  10  20  10  10
Clines Corners..................  60  89  61  91 /  10  20  10  10
Mountainair.....................  61  92  61  92 /  10  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  61  93  61  93 /  10  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  66  96  66  96 /   5  10   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  57  87  58  88 /   0  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  59  86  59  91 /  40  50  20  10
Raton...........................  59  91  59  95 /  40  60  20  20
Springer........................  61  92  60  96 /  30  60  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  58  86  58  91 /  20  50  20  10
Clayton.........................  67  94  66  99 /  20  30  20   0
Roy.............................  64  90  63  95 /  20  50  30   5
Conchas.........................  69  98  68 102 /  10  30  20   0
Santa Rosa......................  67  96  67 100 /  10  20  20   5
Tucumcari.......................  70 100  71 105 /   5  20  20   0
Clovis..........................  67  98  69 100 /   0  20  20   0
Portales........................  68  99  70 100 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70 100  71 102 /   0  20  20   0
Roswell.........................  71 101  72 104 /   0   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  65  93  66  95 /   0   5   0   5
Elk.............................  61  89  63  92 /   0  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ234.

&&

52/12