Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Upper level high pressure centered near the Four Corners will allow
storms to drift southward thru tonight. Guidance has been hinting at
a more organized storm cluster shifting south from northern NM across
KSAF, KABQ, and KAEG thru 05Z. SHRA/TS will form on outflow boundaries
elsewhere thru tonight with any direct hits capable of brief IFR to
MVFR from heavy rain. Mid level clouds will linger thru sunrise in
many areas before eroding by late morning. Another round of SHRA/TS
is expected around the higher terrain aft 19Z with slightly less
coverage than today and slow storm motion.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue this week and weekend with
daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. This will
continue the risk of burn scar flash flooding as slow and erratic
storm motion will persist. Temperatures will be within a few degrees
of normal with the exception of the eastern plains where
temperatures will be in and around the triple digits into the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
With abundant monsoon moisture in place and higher PWATs due to last
night's moist backdoor front, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for this evening. There are still some
hints in the mesoscale models of a disturbance embedded in the
periphery of the 500 mb ridge (centered over the UT/AZ border)
tracking southward over the northern mountains through the evening.
Will continue the ongoing Flood Watch until midnight, although the
best chance for heavy rainfall after 9 pm should be over the Jemez
and southern Sangre de Cristos (Santa Fe and San Miguel Counties).

A downtick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast for Wednesday as the
high pressure circulation aloft moves more directly over the
forecast area and drier air filters southward over northern areas.
Slow and erratic storm motions should nonetheless lead to some heavy
rainers with the potential to produce flash flooding Wednesday
afternoon and evening, especially over southern and western areas
where PWATs should still be around 1-1.24 inches. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon will be over the
mountains, then over northwest areas during the evening. High
temperatures Wednesday afternoon will vary from around 4 degrees
above normal along the TX border to as much as 7 degrees below
normal over western parts of the forecast area.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
With the persistence of the Four Corners High, daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the long term.
After a slight downtick midweek, moisture is anticipated to surge
again through the Desert Southwest, with PWAT values increasing
everyday through early next week. Storm coverage over the weekend
will increase and the continued slow and erratic motion will
intensify the threat for locally heavy rainfall, especially across
recent burn scars. Otherwise, temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal, with the exception of the eastern plains where
many locales will flirt with and surpass the triple digits.

44/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
With the mid level high pressure circulation varying its centroid
over and the forecast area and Four Corners from day to day, and a
broad area of good monsoon moisture trapped underneath, daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorm will continue for the remainder of the
week.  The most widespread storms and greatest potential for locally
heavy rainfall are expected this evening due to the moist backdoor
front that arrived last night, then again at the end of the week and
over the weekend when another moist backdoor front and upper level
trough will cross. High temperatures are forecast to vary from a few
to several degrees above normal in the east each day, and from a few
to several degrees below normal in the west.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones...
NMZ211-213>215-228-229.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
603 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

NMZ214-215-228-229-130030-
Far Northeast Highlands-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Northeast Highlands-
603 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SAN
MIGUEL AND SOUTHWESTERN MORA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM MDT...

At 602 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tierra Monte, or 12 miles south of Mora. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Storrie Lake State Park, Ledoux, Sapello, Montezuma, Tierra Monte,
El Porvenir, Gascon, South Carmen, Manuelitas, San Geronimo, and the
Calf Canyon Hermits Peak burn scar.

This includes the following highways...
 State Road 65 between Mile Markers 2 and 14.
 State Road 94 between Mile Markers 1 and 14.
 State Road 105 between Mile Markers 0 and 9.
 State Road 266 between Mile Markers 0 and 6.
 State Road 276 between Mile Markers 0 and 5.
 State Road 283 between Mile Markers 5 and 12, and near Mile Marker
14.
 State Road 518 between Mile Markers 3 and 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 10543 3588 10503 3552 10533 3573 10562
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 034DEG 2KT 3579 10537

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

12

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