Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1131 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MVFR conditions in scattered convection this
afternoon/evening. Terminals most likely to be impacted are KGUP,
KSAF, KAEG and KABQ.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will continue to slowly increase today with a few more
afternoon and early evening thunderstorm potential slightly farther
northwest compared to yesterday. Most thunderstorm activity, however,
will remain along and east of the central mountains and south of
Interstate 40. Thunderstorm activity ramps up further Sunday and
especially Monday and Tuesday as plentiful monsoon moisture returns
to all areas. Locally heavy rain along with flash flooding is
expected to be a concern for many areas both days. A slow down tick
in thunderstorm activity remains on track for Wednesday through
Friday as the monsoon high moves back overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
00Z upper air data showed the upper high near the Four Corners
around 597dam at 500mb. Atmospheric moisture was on the uptrend
across central NM and the 00Z KABQ sounding showed a PWAT of 0.86",
which was up from 0.56" 24hrs prior. This trend will persist today
as moisture continues to advect westward across the area. The upper
high is forecast to move from over the Four Corners to over south
central CO today which will steer convection from east to west and
bring storms off of the central mountain chain over the RGV,
potentially impacting the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros this
afternoon. Burn scar flooding is still a possibility, but the latest
HRRR and HREF runs don't show the scars taking hits through 21Z and
in the case of the Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon and McBride scars,
storms will likely form on the higher terrain to the west and move
off to the west. Tough call on a Flash Flood Watch, but will hold
off for now. Otherwise, high temperatures will be within a few
degrees of normal today. The upper high is forecast to continue
moving east to over the TX Panhandle into western OK on Sunday, as a
secondary high center develops over northern AZ and southern UT.
This development will result in very week steering flow and enhance
a locally heavy rainfall threat as PWATs continue to trend up given
southerly winds from 700mb down to the surface. Rain chances will
favor areas along/west of the central mountain chain Sunday and a
Flash Flood Watch may be required for area burn scars.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT FRIDAY)...
Weather prediction models continue with the idea of splitting the
monsoon high center in two Sunday night, with one centroid over
central AZ and the other over the TX panhandle. Heights fall a couple
of decameters Sunday night into Monday as low level moisture
continues to increase from the south and southeast. At the same time,
a relatively stout backdoor front is sliding southward through
eastern Colorado. This front is forecast to enhance thunderstorm
coverage and intensity across northern NM late Monday afternoon into
Monday evening. Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to break out across the vast majority of the forecast area
Monday evening as the unseasonably strong backdoor front acts as a
lifting mechanism on abundant low and mid level moisture. Steering
flow on Monday is forecast to be slow and erratic. NAM12 is
forecasting strong nocturnal convection for northeast NM Monday night,
including the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains
including the HPCC burn scar. 00Z NAM12 also brings a short-wave
trough down through northeast NM Monday night, resulting in another
round of thunderstorms and very heavy rain potential for the east
slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward. Another very
active day is expected Tuesday, particularly mountains. Remnant
cloud cover, however, on Tuesday may result in some lower elevations
remaining too stable for much in the way of thunderstorm activity.

Monsoon high is then forecast to strengthen over western CO
Wednesday and Thursday with a stronger subsidence inversion over NM
acting as a check on convective outflows for valley and basin areas
each afternoon and early evening. Storm motion is forecast to be to
the south and southwest around 10-20 mph both days. ECMWF has trended
slightly farther east with the monsoon high center, closer to the
GFS solution. It still remains to be seen if the closed
lows/troughs/polar jet will be strong enough to send the monsoon high
far enough east in mid July to get another stand up/north to south
moisture plume over NM as the GFS suggests.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Atmospheric moisture and chances for wetting storms will trend up
over the next several days as the upper high moves from over the
Four Corners east across southern CO and out into the US southern
plains. The threat for burn scar flooding will trend up as well,
especially by Monday and Tuesday due to very weak steering flow and
added moisture and forcing from a backdoor front. The added forcing
from the backdoor front will allow storms to persist overnight
Monday across northeast NM, including over the Hermits Peak-Calf
Canyon scar with an elevated flood threat. Chances for wetting
storms will trend down from Wednesday through Friday, but the threat
for burn scar flooding will remain elevated, especially considering
anticipated saturated conditions by Wednesday.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1259 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

NMZ212-214-218-091930-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-Glorieta Mesa
Including Glorieta Pass-
1259 PM MDT Sat Jul 9 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL AND EAST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM MDT...

At 1259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Canada De Los Alamos, or 8 miles southeast of Santa Fe, moving
southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Santa Fe, Eldorado At Santa Fe, Canada De Los Alamos, Lamy
and Glorieta.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 283 and 302.
 Highway 285 between Mile Markers 284 and 290.
 State Road 63 between Mile Markers 10 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 10584 3564 10567 3541 10581 3555 10606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 038DEG 12KT 3561 10583

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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