Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Albuquerque, NM

038 
WGUS75 KABQ 081904
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
104 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

NMC047-082045-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-220708T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
104 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HERMITS PEAK AND CALF CANYON BURN 
SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

At 104 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain ending over the southern portion of the Hermits Peak and Calf 
Canyon Burn Scar. Between 0.25 and 1.2 inches of rain fell from 1100 
am until 12 pm today over the headwaters of the Gallinas River, with 
0.10 to 0.30 of an inch over the headwaters of Tecolote Creek. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact the Tecolote Creek 
and Gallinas River drainage areas including Cabo Lucero Creek, Canon 
Mesteno, Ojitos Frios Creek, Tecolote Creek, Porvenir Canyon, Arroyo 
Pecos, Agua Zarca and Vegosa Creek. The debris flow can consist of 
rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Hermits Peak and Calf
         Canyon Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Las Vegas, El Porvenir, Montezuma, Storrie Lake State Park, 
  Mineral Hill, Gallinas, San Geronimo, San Pablo and Ojitos Frios.

This includes the following highways...
	State Road 283 between Mile Markers 1 and 12...and
	near Mile Marker 14.
	State Road 65 between Mile Markers 1 and 14.
	State Road 518 between Mile Markers 1 and 10.
	Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 344 and 348.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the southern Hermits Peak 
and Calf Canyon fire burn area.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.



&&

LAT...LON 3582 10553 3579 10544 3575 10540 3576 10535
      3574 10520 3564 10520 3562 10519 3557 10521
      3553 10526 3546 10529 3545 10535 3547 10540
      3550 10545 3558 10550 3570 10555 3572 10556
      3575 10557 3578 10556

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

44

845 
WGUS75 KABQ 082041
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
241 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

NMC047-082051-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0055.000000T0000Z-220708T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Miguel NM-
241 PM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HERMITS PEAK 
AND CALF CANYON BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON 
FOR NORTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended over the southern portions of the Hermits 
Peak-Calf Canyon burn scar. Runoff from previous storms should be 
diminishing and coming to an end, so flooding in these southern 
parts of the scar is no longer expected to pose a threat. However, 
additional storms are impacting more central areas of the burn scar 
near Gascon and Rociada with impacts from heavy rain expected in 
these areas farther north.

LAT...LON 3582 10553 3579 10544 3575 10540 3576 10535
      3574 10520 3564 10520 3562 10519 3557 10521
      3553 10526 3546 10529 3545 10535 3547 10540
      3550 10545 3558 10550 3570 10555 3572 10556
      3575 10557 3578 10556

$$

Shoemake

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The center of the upper high is over northwest New Mexico and
will be at the four corners region tonight and Saturday. VFR
conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-
lived MVFR conditions in scattered convection along/east of the
central mountain chain this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm impacts
are likely at KLVS, with a good chance in KTCC and KROW. Storms
diminish early tonight, then form again Saturday midday and
strengthen in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 AM MDT Fri Jul 8 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Today's afternoon and evening round of showers and thunderstorms will
once again be most prevalent from the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo, Sacramento and Capitan mountains eastward. As moisture makes
its way west and north tonight, chances for afternoon and evening
storms return to all but the northwest quarter Saturday. Scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms return to all areas by Sunday
afternoon and evening with numerous storms forecast for early next
week. High temperatures are forecast to remain above seasonal
averages until cooling to near average Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
The upper high is forecast to strengthen over northwest NM today to
near 598dam at 500mb, while moisture advects northwest to near the
RGV and results in another, likely more active, round of daytime
heating triggered convection. Storms will move slowly to the south,
or regenerate along outflow boundaries, and initiate along the
central mountain chain late morning or early afternoon. Burn scar
flooding is possible today, but the ingredients aren't tipping the
scale toward a flash flood watch given the short-lived nature of the
updrafts and resulting small footprint of heavy rainfall. Moisture
will advance westward overnight beyond the RGV to near the
Continental Divide, setting the stage for Saturday as the upper high
backs-off to the over the Four Corners or southwest CO. Steering
flow toward the west or southwest on Saturday afternoon may take
storms off of the southern Sangre De Cristos and the Sandia/Manzano
Mountains across the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros. With PWATs
still on the uptrend Saturday, storms along/west of the central
mountain chain will be capable of producing heavy downpours with
rainfall amounts around 1". Highs today and Saturday will generally
be at or above normal.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
No major changes to the extended forecast with thunderstorm activity
forecast to continue ramping up Sunday and especially early next
week. Monsoon high center and its related subsidence inversion are
forecast to shift east over the Southern Plains by Sunday with
thunderstorm activity ramping up over much of the forecast area. An
upper-level trough sliding southeastward through the Northern Plains
is then forecast to force the upper-high westward to over northern
AZ/southern UT. Plentiful low-level monsoon moisture will be
available for daytime heating to act upon Monday afternoon and
evening. Storm motion Sunday will be slow and erratic, becoming to
the southeast around 10-15 mph Monday. Another active to very active
day is forecast for Tuesday as the monsoon high center remains over
southern UT. Steering flow changes little from Monday with most
storms drifting south and southeastward. Tuesday and Wednesday
continue to look like days where rain cooled air from storms over
the Jemez and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains collide over the
middle RGV, possibly impacting the Santa Fe and ABQ metro areas late
Tuesday afternoon with strong winds and torrential rainfall.

Model forecasts begin to diverge somewhat Wednesday and Thursday but
with the general idea that the monsoon high will build back
overhead. Slightly less in the way of thunderstorm coverage is
forecast but with sufficient surface heating forecast, scattered
storm coverage seems the likely result. High temperatures will
continue above average through Monday, cooling slightly to near
average Tuesday through Thursday.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Chances for wetting storms will favor areas along/east of the
central mountain chain today with potential for burn scar flooding
as the upper high continues to strengthen over northwest NM, where
hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected. Moisture will work
slowly westward Saturday and Sunday as the upper high sets up over
the Four Corners or southwest CO, bringing chances for wetting
storms all the way to the AZ border. An uptrend in wetting storms
and potential burn scar flooding is forecast Tue/Wed after a
backdoor front moves through and replenishes moisture while the
upper high moves east from over UT to CO. A downtrend in daily
rounds of wetting storms is forecast toward the end of next week as
the upper high expands across the region with no additional moisture
input.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&