Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1155 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Dry air pushing
into western NM will limit SHRA/TSRA development there. Storms will
be focused across northeast, southeast and south central NM today,
with KROW TAF site favored for SHRA/TSRA impacts. Storm motion will
be slow and erratic. Storms will diminish around or shortly after
sunset.

34

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.PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT Thu Jul 7 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be limited to
the south-central mountains and eastern plains today and again
Friday. Moisture is forecast to move back into central and southwest
New Mexico Friday night and Saturday which is forecast to result in
at least spotty thunderstorm coverage for central areas including the
Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase further on Sunday and
especially early next week. High temperatures will warm to above
seasonal averages for early to mid July.

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.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The latest water vapor imagery shows the monsoon moisture plume
oriented from southwest to northeast across the state, with a
dryslot moving northeast across northwest and west central NM behind
a shortwave trough ejecting into the plains of CO. This dry airmass
will shutdown convection across much of western NM today, with the
northeast plains and south central mountains having the best shot at
storms. The SPC day1 convective outlook includes the northeast
plains in a marginal risk, which makes sense given the presence of a
backdoor frontal boundary, notable directional shear through the
column and modest instability with surface dewpoint temps in the mid
50s to low 60s. Otherwise, today will be warmer as the upper high
builds up over the area to near 594dam at 500mb. Convection will
follow a fairly normal diurnal downtrend this evening, with a
slightly more active round forecast Friday afternoon/evening from
the central mountain chain eastward as the upper high shifts to over
northwest NM and continues to strengthen to around 598dam at 500mb.
Temperatures will continue to trend up Friday, with highs generally
at or above normal. A strong to potentially severe storm or two can
not be ruled out across the northeast plains Friday afternoon where
northwest flow aloft around the periphery of the upper high
circulation will be met by southeast low level flow, providing
sufficient shear. Elsewhere, airmass storms will likely have short-
lived updrafts and produce a small footprint of soaking rainfall.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Weather prediction models agree that the monsoon high will be
centered over north-central NM Friday night into Saturday with most
thunderstorm activity forecast south of I-40 Saturday afternoon and
early evening. A few storms will be possible over northern NM but
with a moderate subsidence inversion in place, they will likely be
rather short-lived. GFS, ECWMF and NBM agree that the monsoon high
weakens somewhat by Sunday and with low-level flow bringing in more
moisture, scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorm coverage is
forecast to break out for much of the area. Locally heavy rainfall is
certainly possible given that storm motion is forecast to be light
and variable. For Monday through Wednesday, weather prediction models
agree that the monsoon high will likely shift westward over northern
AZ/southern UT and with plentiful low level moisture in place each
day, active to very active days are forecast. Storm motion will be to
the south and southwest around 15-20 mph all three days. Steering
flow aloft is suggestive of the potential for strong thunderstorms to
impact the ABQ metro, east mountain area as well as Valencia county
as storm outflows from storms over the Jemez and southern Sangre de
Cristo mountains collide to develop new strong storms over the mid
RGV.

11/33

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry and unstable conditions will prevail across western NM
today, with chances for wetting storms focused from the central
mountain chain eastward. The upper high is forecast to strengthen
over the area through Saturday to near 601dam at 500mb and center
over southern CO or northwest NM. A warming trend will accompany the
strengthening upper high and will take temperatures above normal
areawide by Sun/Mon. Chances for wetting storms will return to area
west of the central mountain chain by Saturday. The upper high
center is then forecast to back-off to over UT going from early to
mid week, which will allow a backdoor front to work west across the
area and replenish moisture for more productive rounds of wetting
storms.

11

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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