Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have already started to develop
across the western 2/3rds of NM. Storms will generally move toward
the NE around 5-15kt today. Mid level dry air shifting into western
NM today should limit storm coverage, as well as reductions in
cigs/vsbys with what storms do develop, though some brief reductions
are not out of the question. Wind gusts near 30kt will be possible
with thunderstorms. Storms should diminish shortly after sunset with
VFR conditions prevailing overnight. A backdoor cold front/outflow
boundary will slide into NE NM overnight, which may set the stage for
additional storms Thursday afternoon.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...240 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The primary focus for showers and storms today will be over eastern
NM and along the Continental Divide. Storms will move east-northeast
at 10 to 20 mph with locally heavy rainfall likely over eastern NM.
Storms will focus over northern and eastern NM on Thursday with a
couple strong to perhaps severe storms over the northeast plains.
Strong upper level high pressure building over the state toward the
end of the week will allow any storms to be slow and erratic. The
threat for locally heavy rainfall will continue with flash flooding
possible on recent burn scars. Temperatures will be very hot toward
the end of the week with many areas slightly above normal for early
July.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Very dry air aloft will continue nosing up from Sonora and into much
of NM through the day. As a result, today's crop of afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be relatively
anemic. Yesterday, however, was a good reminder of what happens when
low level moisture is present and very dry air aloft moves overhead.
Instability increases significantly and high based storms are able
to continue propagating on outflow boundaries for hours. At any
rate, today continues to look like the relative down-day of this
week with storms favoring the western third and far northeast plains
along a weak backdoor boundary. This boundary is expected to result
in a cluster of storms over far northeast NM Thursday. Elsewhere for
Thursday, dry air aloft wins out in western and central areas of NM
while the northeast quarter and south-central mountains become the
area of convective focus due in part to the above mentioned backdoor
boundary and an weak wave/wind speed max moving northeastward
through eastern NM.

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LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Convective evolution Friday will depend largely on what happens with
a possibly large storm cluster exiting northeast NM and/or southeast
CO Thursday night. There are significant differences between high
resolution CAMs and global models with respect to how far southwest a
moist, convectively-aided back door cold front makes it on Friday
morning. The 00Z/06Z NAM shows showers and storms firing up along the
central mt chain late Friday morning then moving across eastern NM
thru Friday night into more unstable, moist, low level southeasterly
inflow. The GFS/ECMWF show less coverage with storms farther east
into the plains Friday and Friday night. Meanwhile, a strong upper
level high center is building overhead which will lead to slow and
erratic storm motions with greater outflow boundary interactions.
Confidence is low to moderate on coverage Friday as a result of these
differences. CAMs and global models do agree on a stronger easterly
push Friday night and deeper moisture shifting farther west into the
RGV and possibly to the Cont Dvd for Saturday. The upper level high
continues to strengthen over the weekend which will allow temps to
warm above normal with terrain-dominated convection and moisture
recycling becoming more favorable. Unfortunately, more notable model
differences arise with respect to the strength and location of the
upper high so confidence decreases on storm coverage and intensity
into early next week. The GFS is weaker with the H5 high center and
farther to the northwest with a robust "reverse" monsoon pattern. The
ECMWF is stronger with the high center sprawling over much of NM
with very hot temperatures and meager storm coverage. Daily changes
are likely as is often the case during weakly-forced summer patterns.

Guyer

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.FIRE WEATHER...
No major changes to the forecast with no critical fire weather
forecast during the next week. After a down day with regard to
thunderstorm activity forecast today, storm coverage is forecast to
ramp up in eastern NM Thursday and Friday and near and south of I-40
over the weekend. An active monsoon pattern is forecast for early
next week as high pressure aloft slides east over AZ and southern UT.

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

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