Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1121 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous SHRA/TS will develop by 18Z across the high
terrain with steering flow tracking storms towards the N/NE around 5
to 10 knots. Some storms may display erratic, nearly stationary
movement. SHRA/TS will become more widespread across the lower
elevations of central and western NM though the afternoon and evening
hours. Strongest storms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent
lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and perhaps small hail. Activity
will diminish in coverage after 03Z, but isolated activity will
likely linger across the high terrain through the overnight hours.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 AM MDT Sat Jul 2 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will continue to favor the
western and central high terrain, moving north to northeast each day
through the Fourth of July Holiday. This continues the threat of burn
scar flash flooding, with potential disruptions to Fourth of July
evening activities. Flexible planning looks to be key for outdoor
activities this holiday weekend during the afternoon and evenings. A
slight downtrend in daily storm activity arrives in the middle of
next week, but slower storm motions will allow for any storm to still
pose a flash flooding risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Overall similar weather conditions are expected today as the rich
plume of monsoon moisture remains focused over NM. A 590dm H5 ridge
axis stretching from southeast NM across west TX into OK will pivot
more west to east today. This will allow southerly flow to deepen
across NM with PWATs trending slightly higher than Friday. Storm
motion will N/NE once again but a tad faster. Water vapor still shows
the more stable and dry mid and upper level airmass over southeast
NM and this will continue today. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
once again for wildfire burn scars as this threat continues. Showers
and storms will linger across much of northern and western NM tonight
where models even show some low clouds developing around the high
terrain.

The H5 ridge axis will attempt to build west Sunday with a continued
focus for showers and storms over the western half of NM. Convective
initiation looks later than recent days as the more stable airmass
across eastern NM delays onset as far west as the central mt chain.
Storm motion will become more northerly with a greater focus for
flash flooding along the Cont Divide and recent burn scars again.
Models have been hinting at a weak easterly wave sliding northeast
across the Permian Basin by late Sunday which may influence storm
development across southeast NM Sunday night.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The Fourth of July holiday kicks off the long term period with a
continued stream of monsoonal moisture into the western half of the
New Mexico. PWATs remain between 1.00”-1.20” allowing for a
robust crop of afternoon storms firing off over the western and
central high terrain by midday. Global model solutions continue to
show stronger SW flow coming ashore the western CONUS, which will be
instrumental in keeping storms moving toward the N/NE 10-15mph. Lower
elevations through western and central NM will see higher storm
chances late in the afternoon and evening hours, potentially
disrupting any firework activities. Storms along the central mountain
chain will have a chance to move over the adjacent central highlands
with outflow boundary collisions bringing isolated to scattered
storm potential over the eastern plains near sunset into the evening
hours at firework time. Of course, the main threat remains locally
heavy rainfall over burn scars. Of note is a weak mid-level feature
moving north from Mexico into eastern AZ/western NM Monday night that
could keep showers/storms going longer overnight. The NAM12 in
particular is picking up on this feature keeping storm chances going
into Tuesday morning through the Four Corners area. Haven’t totally
bought into this yet, but it’ll be something to keep an eye out
for with upcoming forecast packages.

Tuesday sees New Mexico remaining under strong monsoon flow between
southwest flow to the west and a 595dm H5 high. Afternoon storms will
again favor the high terrain before generally drifting N-NE. The
eastern plains could see late day and evening storm activity from
colliding outflows again. Wednesday and thursday begins to see the H5
high elongate and begin a trek westward into the Great Basin region.
This will weaken the steering for afternoon convection, allowing for
slower moving storms to reside over locations for a longer period of
time. The GFS is backing off a bit with the strength of the upper
high for late next week, while the ECMWF is remaining steadfast with
a 600dm H5 high over western CO by next Saturday. This looks to shunt
the influx of new monsoon moisture, however there is no influx of
drier air either. So daily rounds of scattered afternoon convection
look to continue through the end of the forecast period.

Guyer/24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will continue to
impact the region through next week. Storm motion will be north to
northeast today then more northerly on Sunday before tilting back to
the north and northeast Monday. Burn scar flash flooding remains a
serious concern, especially for HPCC. Temperatures will be close to
seasonal normals for early July. Overnight recoveries will be very
good to excellent every night with min RH falling to between 25 and
35% most areas.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208-211-214-215-229.

&&