Flash Flood Warning 246, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Moisture will continue to increase across northern and western
New Mexico through mid week, allowing daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Storms may persist through the overnight
hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
flash flooding and rising water in normally dry arroyos. Storm
coverage will decrease toward the end of the week. Meanwhile,
eastern and much of central New Mexico will remain dry with
temperatures a few degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

The high over TX has strengthened some today and will continue to
do so Monday as it moves north to the TX/OK border. Meanwhile,
the big storm out west will remain centered off the CA coast
Monday. This setup will allow for more moisture to track north
into NM. This afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms
will be a mix of wet and dry in the west. Strong downburst winds
with virga will be the main concern. Coverage will increase Monday
into Monday night over western and central areas with mostly or
all wet storms. Tonight and Monday night will be mild, and highs
Monday will be lower this afternoon by a few degrees, mostly near
to above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Southerly flow will persist as NM remains between a large upper
high centered over OK/TX and an large upper low off the coast of
CA. Moisture will continue to stream northward across western NM
on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms favored near and west of
the ContDvd. With PWATs climbing above an inch in that area (2-3
standard deviations above normal), heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be possible. A similar set up is in store for
Wednesday as the upper high inches southwestward and the upper low
begins to eject northeastward over NorCal. Storm motions will be
toward the north/northeast around 10 to 15 mph Tuesday and
slightly faster on Wednesday. By Thursday, the low will have
shifted across the northern Rockies while the high shifts closer
to SE NM. Northwest portions of the state will remain favored for
precipitation, but storm motion will shift a bit. Storms will move
more toward the east-northeast. By Friday, the southerly tap of
moisture will have waned and moisture values will be coming down.
Therefore, shower and thunderstorm coverage will decrease
compared to previous days. This downward trend will continue into
Saturday as well.

While portions of northern and western New Mexico receive daily
round of thunderstorm activity, thereby keeping their temperatures
at or below normal, eastern and much of central NM will remain
dry and warm. There will be a backdoor cold front that slides
through the eastern plains late Wednesday into Thursday morning,
but with southerly flow returning by Thursday afternoon, this
shouldn't decrease temperatures too much. That said, the ECMWF is
a bit more aggressive with the front as it pushes the front all
the way through the plains, whereas the GFS and CMC stall the
front across northeast NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 502 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

Main topic is potential for gusty erratic winds emanating from
sct shra and/or virga across the western high terrain and along
the continental divide this evening. This activity will work its
way eastward into the Rio Grande Valley, bringing potential for
gusty winds to KABQ-KAEG and potentially as far north as KSAF.
This activity tapers off slowly overnight well into Monday
morning. More moisture working its way northward into NM will
bring a sct mix of shra and ts to western and central NM Monday
afternoon. VFR, and prevailing sely to swly winds stay true across
the eastern plains Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022

High pressure to our west and a big storm off the CA coast will
allow moisture to stream into New Mexico from the south this week.
The monsoon just will not give up with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms with wetting precipitation. Today is still dry enough
though to limit most storms from getting any wetting rain. In fact,
much of the convection will be dry with strong winds from virga and
dry lightning the main impacts across the west. Storms will be
mostly wet Monday and cover the west and central areas. The storm
will finally move inland Wednesday and lift well northeast of NM. It
will allow a more westerly flow aloft, which can bring precipitation
into northeast NM from Wednesday on. Thursday and Friday will remain
active in the west and north, then a ridge of high pressure from the
west may move in next weekend, to reduce the chances of convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  85  59  81 /  20  10  20  50
Dulce...........................  48  80  48  82 /  20  20  30  60
Cuba............................  53  78  53  80 /  20  40  30  50
Gallup..........................  51  81  55  80 /  20  50  30  60
El Morro........................  51  75  54  77 /  30  60  30  60
Grants..........................  49  78  51  79 /  30  60  30  60
Quemado.........................  52  77  54  79 /  30  60  50  60
Magdalena.......................  56  77  57  79 /  40  50  30  30
Datil...........................  51  72  53  76 /  40  60  40  50
Reserve.........................  52  82  53  83 /  30  70  50  50
Glenwood........................  61  84  62  85 /  30  60  60  50
Chama...........................  46  74  47  75 /  20  30  20  60
Los Alamos......................  57  76  55  77 /  20  50  30  30
Pecos...........................  54  78  55  80 /  20  50  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  39  78  40  79 /  10  30  20  40
Red River.......................  43  72  42  73 /   5  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  41  71  42  74 /  10  40  20  40
Taos............................  50  79  50  81 /  10  30  20  30
Mora............................  48  76  49  78 /  10  50  20  30
Espanola........................  57  84  55  86 /  20  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  57  78  57  80 /  20  40  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  55  80  55  82 /  20  40  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  83  63  84 /  20  40  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  84  63  85 /  20  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  86  62  86 /  20  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  84  63  85 /  20  40  30  30
Belen...........................  60  86  60  88 /  30  40  30  20
Bernalillo......................  61  86  61  87 /  20  40  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  60  85  60  87 /  20  40  30  20
Corrales........................  62  86  62  87 /  20  40  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  85  61  87 /  30  40  30  20
Placitas........................  61  81  60  84 /  20  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  62  85  62  86 /  20  40  30  30
Socorro.........................  61  87  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  74  58  77 /  20  50  30  30
Tijeras.........................  58  79  58  81 /  30  50  30  30
Edgewood........................  53  80  53  81 /  20  40  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  81  51  83 /  20  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  54  77  53  79 /  20  40  20  20
Mountainair.....................  54  79  55  80 /  20  40  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  55  80  55  81 /  20  40  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  61  82  60  83 /  20  40  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  75  54  75 /  20  50  20  30
Capulin.........................  55  82  54  84 /   5  20   0  10
Raton...........................  52  85  50  86 /   5  20   5  20
Springer........................  52  87  52  88 /   5  30  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  52  81  52  82 /  10  40  20  20
Clayton.........................  61  89  63  89 /   0   5   0   0
Roy.............................  58  84  57  86 /   5  20   5  10
Conchas.........................  62  90  63  91 /   5  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  60  85  60  87 /   5  20  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  65  92  65  93 /   0   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  61  88  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  62  90  62  90 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  88  63  88 /   5   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  66  91  65  92 /   5  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  59  84  59  86 /  10  30  10  10
Elk.............................  56  81  56  83 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...40